No Spot Price, How to Trade Anthropic? Entropy Wants to Use Order Books to Price Private Assets

marsbitPubblicato 2026-08-26Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-08-26

Introduzione

**Summary:** Entropy, operating as a HIP-3 deployer on Hyperliquid, is introducing perpetual contracts for private pre-IPO companies—starting with Anthropic—where no continuous public market price exists. To address this, Entropy employs a novel "liquidity-weighted oracle" that blends its own order book's mid-price (based on a 5-minute EMA) with aggregated external private market data. The oracle’s reliance on internal market prices scales with the "executable depth" within a 200bps range: when order book liquidity is deep and credible, Entropy’s market can command up to 95% weight in pricing; when liquidity thins, the oracle falls back on stale private data. This design aims to prevent manipulation via spoofing and allows the market to generate a continuous consensus price for illiquid assets. If Anthropic remains private at expiry, the ANTH contract will settle based on a 30-day TWAP of its own mark price—essentially settling on the market’s own derived valuation rather than a fundamental or IPO price. Entropy’s bet is that sufficient, credible liquidity can enable real-time price discovery for private assets, closing the gap between infrequent private funding rounds and public market dynamics.

Author: Alea Research

Compiled by: Shenchao TechFlow

Shenchao TechFlow Introduction: Private companies never disclose continuous market prices; their valuations are locked within each funding round. Entropy, deployed on Hyperliquid as a HIP-3 deployer and backed by a $14 million funding round led by Ribbit Capital and 40 million HYPE staked, directly targets Anthropic's implied valuation with its first flagship market. Its core bet is: as long as the two-sided depth in the order book is "credible" enough, the market itself can assign a continuous price to illiquid assets; once the depth collapses, the oracle falls back to stale private market data. This piece analyzes how Entropy prices "non-trading assets," when its oracle chooses to trust its own market, and what happens when there is ultimately no spot asset to settle against.

What is Entropy

Entropy is a HIP-3 deployer offering perpetual contracts (marked as "io") on Hyperliquid covering global stocks, indices, commodities, and pre-IPO companies. HIP-3 allows Entropy to customize assets, risk parameters, oracles, and front-end, while directly leveraging Hyperliquid's matching engine, settlement infrastructure, and existing trading flow.

Currently, there is no publicly available share count to calculate a per-share price, and private market quotes from secondary transfers, tender offers, and fund valuations arrive too infrequently to serve as real-time references. Entropy solves the first problem by "directly quoting market cap"; solving the second problem requires its own market to become part of the pricing process.

Pricing Assets Without Spot Prices

Entropy blends the mid-price from its order book with aggregated external private market data. The internal price is a 5-minute EMA, but its influence is constrained by the "executable two-sided depth within 200bps of the mid-price," with resting liquidity discounted based on actual fill probability.

When the order book is deep, Entropy can give its own market up to 95% weight in the oracle; when liquidity vanishes, external references take over. Thus, traders cannot "cheaply" push the oracle with an empty book—as depth declines, the oracle's responsiveness to the book weakens. Departed liquidity loses influence faster than newly posted liquidity, limiting the value of spoofing to manipulate the market.

The official Entropy account wrote on X: "We are building new primitives to solve these problems. Our first innovation is a new liquidity-weighted oracle that adjusts its confidence in external oracle prices based on the executable depth in our market, allowing price discovery to happen directly on our order book."

This means the pricing of perpetual contracts largely depends on how "credible" the liquidity is. This also explains the lower funding rate multiplier: aggressively pegging the contract to an external reference would punish information "not yet incorporated by the external reference but discovered first by traders."

Anthropic's Pre-IPO Market

If Anthropic remains a private company at expiration, ANTH will settle based on a 30-day TWAP of its own mark price. That is, the contract does not necessarily converge to Anthropic's ultimate "fundamental" or IPO valuation but settles based on the "consensus generated by the market itself."

The official Entropy announcement stated: "We are launching the first liquid way to trade Anthropic. For too long, frontier assets have been accessible only to a select few. We are here to change that."

Deeper liquidity grants the market more authority over its oracle; credible pricing attracts more flow; more flow creates the depth needed for the oracle to be credible. If this cycle holds, Entropy can turn private valuations into continuously updated market prices; if it fails, the oracle reverts to stale private market data.

Hyperliquid's broader pre-IPO market has shown that these contracts can sometimes converge closely to final public prices. For example, its Cerebeas (CBRS) market closed within 1.3% of the company's $350 Nasdaq opening price. Entropy is now betting that the same market structure can hold even before an IPO when there is no external price to anchor to.

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Domande pertinenti

QWhat is the core purpose of the Entropy protocol?

AThe core purpose of the Entropy protocol is to price illiquid assets like private pre-IPO companies (e.g., Anthropic) by creating a market for them. It uses a novel 'liquidity-weighted oracle' that blends its own order book mid-price with external private market data, allowing continuous price discovery for assets that lack a traditional public market.

QHow does the Entropy oracle work and what makes it resistant to manipulation?

AThe Entropy oracle works by blending a 5-minute EMA of its order book's mid-price with aggregated external private market data. Its unique feature is that the order book's influence is weighted by the 'executable two-sided depth within 200bps of the mid-point,' with liquidity discounted by its likelihood of being filled. This mechanism makes it resistant to manipulation because if traders try to move the price by creating an illiquid order book ('spoofing'), the oracle's reliance on that book weakens as depth decreases, preventing cheap manipulation.

QWhat happens if an asset traded on Entropy (like Anthropic) remains private at contract expiry?

AIf an asset like Anthropic remains a private company at contract expiry, the contract settles based on the 30-day Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) of the asset's own mark price on the Entropy market. This means it settles to the market's own consensus-derived price, not necessarily to a future 'fundamental' valuation or an eventual IPO price.

QWhat is the role of liquidity depth in Entropy's price discovery mechanism?

ALiquidity depth is central to Entropy's price discovery mechanism. Deeper and more 'credible' liquidity (executable orders within a tight spread) grants the order book a higher weight (up to 95%) in the oracle's final price calculation. This creates a virtuous cycle: credible pricing attracts more trading volume, which in turn creates the depth needed to make the oracle credible. If liquidity collapses, the oracle falls back on stale external data.

QOn which infrastructure is Entropy built, and what key advantage does this provide?

AEntropy is built as a HIP-3 deployer on the Hyperliquid perpetual exchange. This allows it to create custom assets and oracles while directly leveraging Hyperliquid's existing matching engine, settlement infrastructure, and established user base/trading flow. This provides Entropy with immediate access to a functional trading ecosystem and liquidity.

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