Ethereum’s rally narrative is facing fresh scrutiny after JPMorgan warned that the recent surge in network activity following last December’s Fusaka upgrade may not be sustainable, raising doubts about bullish projections that see ETH climbing toward five-figure prices.
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JPMorgan’s Ethereum Warning
In a note published Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the activity spike tied to Fusaka may prove temporary.
“Historically, Ethereum’s successive upgrades have failed to meaningfully enhance network activity on a sustained basis for several reasons,” the analysts wrote.
The bank acknowledged that Ethereum has benefited from sharply lower fees, with costs falling to record lows after Fusaka, while weekly active addresses and daily transactions climbed to all-time highs last week.
However, JPMorgan said such bursts of usage have repeatedly normalized once initial enthusiasm fades.
What Is The Fusaka Upgrade?
Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, activated in December, was designed to improve network efficiency by reducing transaction fees and optimizing protocol-level execution.
The changes made Ethereum cheaper to use, particularly during periods of high demand, helping unlock a surge in on-chain activity.
Lower fees have historically been a double-edged sword for Ethereum.
While they encourage usage and experimentation, previous upgrades have not consistently translated into sustained increases in network engagement or long-term price appreciation.
Bullish Ethereum Price Predictions
Not all strategists share JPMorgan’s caution.
Bitmine’s Tom Lee has reiterated a bullish outlook on Ethereum, arguing that institutional adoption and ETH’s expanding role in the financial system support significantly higher prices over time.
“We think that ETH can be $7,000 to $9,000 by the end of January,” Lee said recently.
A key pillar of Lee’s thesis is Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin, which he views as a critical valuation benchmark.
In a recent note to shareholders, Lee said that if Bitcoin were to reach $250,000, Ethereum could trade in a wide range between $12,000 and $22,000.
Under more aggressive assumptions, Lee said Ethereum could eventually reach $250,000 should Bitcoin climb to $1 million.
Bearish Predictions
Ethereum’s wide range of price forecasts is not limited to bullish projections.
Asset manager VanEck added to the debate in 2024 when it published a set of long-term Ethereum price scenarios that spanned from deeply bearish to extremely optimistic outcomes.
In one of its earlier outlooks, VanEck outlined a bearish scenario in which Ethereum’s price could fall as low as $300.
While the projection drew little attention at the time, it resurfaced recently following VanEck’s release of its latest Bitcoin outlook.
In June 2024, the firm also released an Ethereum 2030 valuation framework that included a notably conservative bull case alongside far more aggressive upside scenarios.
Under that model, VanEck projected a base-case price of $22,000 for Ethereum by 2030, a bull case of $154,000, and an extreme bull case of $360,000.
The projections were shared publicly by Bitmine’s Tom Lee, who said he was encouraged by VanEck’s base and bull-case assumptions.
“I love the base case and the bull case,” Lee said, according to his post.
However, the wide dispersion between VanEck’s downside and upside scenarios has drawn criticism from some market commentators.
Another user echoed the skepticism, writing: “The range between the numbers is insane.”
CCN’s Ethereum Price Outlook
From a market structure perspective, analysts say Ethereum’s price action remains fragile in the near term.
“From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s price failed to break above the $3,438 resistance on the daily chart,” said Victor Olanrewaju, an analyst at CCN.
“That rejection matters because it shows sellers still control the supply zone, and buyers have not forced a clean trend expansion yet.”
Olanrewaju added that momentum indicators have weakened quickly. “Momentum has also cooled fast.”
According to Olanrewaju, Ethereum slipping below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is another warning sign.
“ETH’s price has slipped below the 20-day EMA (blue), a move that usually signals a shift from ‘buy-the-dip’ to ‘sell-the-rally’,” he said.
“If this setup holds, Ethereum’s price risks breaking the support near $3,100,” Olanrewaju added.
“If that level gives way, the next move could cut below the $3,000 psychological mark, especially if volume rises on down candles.”
Still, he said the bearish case is not definitive.
In a bullish scenario, he said Ethereum could rally toward $3,942, with a further extension toward $4,300 if momentum accelerates and the breakout holds.
