Bitcoin Volatility Index Suggests Large Price Move Arriving Soon

newsbtcPublished on 2022-10-11Last updated on 2022-10-11

Abstract

Historical data of the Bitcoin volatility index hints that the price of the crypto may observe a big move in the near future. Bitcoin Volatility Index Has Recently Been Below...

Historical data of the Bitcoin volatility index hints that the price of the crypto may observe a big move in the near future.
Bitcoin Volatility Index Has Recently Been Below A Value Of 25
As pointed out by an economist on Twitter, the volatility index has declined into a zone that has historically been followed by an explosive move in BTC.
The “volatility index” in question is the BitMEX .BVOL index, and according to the exchange, the metric’s value “is the rolling 30 day annualized volatility of the daily 11:30 UTC to 12:00 UTC Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) of Bitcoin / USD.”
Here, the Time Weighted Average Price is calculated using measurements made at 1 minute intervals for a period of half-an-hour.
What this index tells us is how much has the recent BTC price deviated from the average, or more simply, how volatile it has been recently.
High values of the metric suggest the crypto has shown some sharp moves recently, while low ones imply a stale market.
Now, below is a chart that shows how the Bitcoin volatility index’s value has changed during the last few years:

Bitcoin Volatility Index

The value of the metric seems to have been quite low in recent days | Source: Alex Krüger on Twitter
As you can see in the graph, the analyst has marked relevant points of trend between the Bitcoin volatility index and the price of the crypto.
It looks like whenever the indicator has dipped below a value of 25, and then subsequently bottomed below the level, the BTC price has seen some significant moves that have made the metric’s value shoot right up.
There have been three instances of this trend during the last few years, two of which involved the price making a bullish move, while the third one a crash.
From the chart, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin volatility index has once again dropped down into this historical zone as the current BVOL value stands at around 24.59.
If the same trend as during the previous instances follows now as well, then the crypto might be heading towards another big move in the near future.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.4k, up 1% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 9% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like the value of the crypto has mostly been moving sideways during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
comp
CompoundCOMP
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX

Related Reads

Commerce Ministry's Latest Export Controls Target 10 US Companies: Three Market-Moving Threads Explained

China's Ministry of Commerce placed 10 U.S. entities, including MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Red Cat Holdings, and Teal Drones, on an export control list, banning the export of dual-use items. This move is seen as part of an ongoing countermeasure in the rare earth sector. The analysis suggests the primary impact is on U.S. companies within the **military, drone, and rare earth** sectors, aiming to restrict their access to critical Chinese materials and technology. For the Chinese market, the event is interpreted as reinforcing the **strategic value and pricing power** of domestic rare earth suppliers. However, the potential stock market reactions are nuanced: 1. **Chinese Rare Earth Upstream:** Companies like Northern Rare Earth are near yearly highs, indicating this event's "beneficiary" logic is largely priced in. It may confirm the trend but is unlikely to be a new major catalyst. 2. **Chinese Rare Earth Mid/Downstream & Drones:** Sectors like magnetic materials (e.g., Da Di Bear, Zhenghai Magnetic) and military drones (e.g., China Aerospace) are relatively undervalued. While the drone listing highlights sectoral competition, it doesn't directly translate to new orders for Chinese firms. 3. **Impact on Listed U.S. Companies:** The effect on stocks like MP Materials is ambiguous. While Chinese restrictions pose a challenge, these companies are also core to U.S. supply chain security efforts and may receive increased government support, potentially offsetting negative impacts. Their pre-announcement stock prices did not indicate panic selling. In summary, the export controls strengthen China's position in the global rare earth supply chain but have uneven effects across related stock market segments, with upstream Chinese gains likely priced in and downstream/drone sectors receiving more indirect, sentiment-driven attention. The outcome for the targeted U.S. stocks depends on the balance between restriction impacts and potential compensatory U.S. policy support.

marsbit5m ago

Commerce Ministry's Latest Export Controls Target 10 US Companies: Three Market-Moving Threads Explained

marsbit5m ago

Loss Exceeds $7.5 Million: Analysis of the Honeypot Attack Targeting MEV Bot and Tracking of Stolen Funds

On June 21, Jaredfromsubway.eth, one of Ethereum's most active MEV bots, suffered a sophisticated honeypot attack, losing over $7.5 million in crypto assets. Attackers deployed a complex contract system, including a coordinator, trigger, and fake token/pair contracts, to exploit the bot's arbitrage logic. The core attack trick involved baiting the bot with transactions: small trades appeared normal and consumed token approvals, while larger trades preserved these approvals by using fake swaps. This left the bot with large, unused approvals for assets like USDC, USDT, and WETH. The attacker then drained these approvals in a final step. The stolen funds—$2.87M USDC, $2.04M USDT, and 1,474 WETH—were consolidated and partially laundered through Tornado Cash. This incident highlights that MEV bots must not rely solely on simulated profits for security. Extra caution is required with unfamiliar contracts or custom wrappers in arbitrage paths, and post-transaction allowance checks are strongly recommended.

marsbit32m ago

Loss Exceeds $7.5 Million: Analysis of the Honeypot Attack Targeting MEV Bot and Tracking of Stolen Funds

marsbit32m ago

Channel Dividends Are Dwindling, What Can DeFi Protocols Rely on to Resist Giants' Harvesting?

As the era of channel-driven growth ends, major tech giants like Coinbase, Stripe, and Kraken are vertically integrating by acquiring or building core infrastructure, capturing profits from underlying protocols. For instance, Coinbase leverages its Base blockchain to earn sequencing fees from protocols like Morpho, while Stripe acquired Bridge to internalize stablecoin yields, and Kraken bought NinjaTrader for derivatives licenses. This trend creates a power imbalance: entities controlling distribution channels can extract value from open-source DeFi protocols. However, protocols are developing a defense through multi-chain expansion. Examples like Morpho (with significant TVL on Ethereum and Base) and Uniswap (dominant across many chains) show that by deploying across multiple blockchains, protocols reduce dependency on any single chain operator, making them costly and risky to replace. The article argues that the future landscape will be shaped by the race between institutional vertical integration and protocol horizontal, multi-chain scaling. Protocols that embed themselves deeply across ecosystems and become indispensable due to high switching costs are most likely to survive and thrive amidst this consolidation.

Foresight News50m ago

Channel Dividends Are Dwindling, What Can DeFi Protocols Rely on to Resist Giants' Harvesting?

Foresight News50m ago

Uniswap v4 Hook Analysis: Architecture Design, Common Vulnerabilities, and Protection Practices

Uniswap v4's Hook mechanism is a major innovation, enabling custom logic injection into liquidity pool lifecycle events like swaps and liquidity provisioning. This transforms the AMM into programmable infrastructure, shifting the security model from protocol-level to pool-level, as each pool's safety now depends on its bound Hook contract. The core architecture revolves around the singleton PoolManager contract, which manages all pools via a flash accounting system. State changes are tracked in transient storage and must be settled by the end of a transaction. Hook contracts are permanently bound to pools via a PoolKey, with their permissions encoded directly into their address via specific low-order bits. This design introduces unique security considerations and challenges for future upgrades. Key vulnerabilities and best practices identified include: - **Access Control Gaps:** Early versions of the BaseHook abstract contract only protect `unlockCallback()`, leaving other lifecycle functions (`beforeSwap`, `afterSwap`, etc.) exposed unless explicitly secured by developers. - **Unrestricted Pool Binding:** The `initialize()` function does not validate if a Hook "consents" to a new pool. Hooks must implement their own whitelisting in `beforeInitialize` to prevent unauthorized pool creation. - **Async/Custom Curve Hooks:** These high-risk Hooks can completely replace Uniswap's swap logic. Their security depends entirely on their own implementation, as they operate outside the native protocol's pricing safeguards. - **Delta Accounting Risks:** The system ensures final balance (NonzeroDeltaCount == 0) but cannot guarantee the *correctness* of intermediate delta states, which attackers could manipulate. - **Token Confusion:** Protocols must implement semantic validation for tokens in user-created markets, not just interface checks, to prevent cross-market confusion attacks. The article emphasizes that Hook auditing requires a "sub-protocol" approach due to extended interaction chains, highlighting a significant shift in security methodology for the v4 ecosystem.

marsbit57m ago

Uniswap v4 Hook Analysis: Architecture Design, Common Vulnerabilities, and Protection Practices

marsbit57m ago

Chips, Open-Source Models, and $50 Trillion: Joe Tsai Reassesses Alibaba Once Again

Alibaba Executive Chairman Joe Tsai recently outlined the company's comprehensive AI strategy in a public discussion. He believes AI represents a massive opportunity, estimating its potential economic impact at up to $50 trillion, stemming from the automation of human intelligence and productivity. Tsai detailed Alibaba's four-layer investment approach across the AI stack: starting from the chip level, moving to cloud infrastructure (Alibaba Cloud), then the model layer with its open-source Qwen model, and finally applications within its vast digital ecosystem (e-commerce, logistics, etc.). The company avoids the energy layer due to China's efficient infrastructure. This broad strategy is designed to ensure Alibaba captures value regardless of where it ultimately concentrates in the AI value chain. He dismissed concerns about an AI investment bubble, pointing to the enormous $50 trillion opportunity. While acknowledging U.S. cloud giants' higher capital expenditure, he argued Chinese firms, including Alibaba (funded by its cash-generative e-commerce core), need to invest more in AI infrastructure. A key theme was technological sovereignty. Tsai positioned open-source models like Qwen as a solution for companies, especially in Europe, seeking independence from proprietary U.S. models and greater data privacy control. He contrasted this with the trend of U.S. giants keeping their models closed-source. Tsai highlighted Alibaba's collaborations with European manufacturers like Bosch and Siemens, using AI for design and quality control. He concluded with an optimistic vision of AI agents enhancing productivity, ultimately freeing up human time for leisure, family, and experiences like live entertainment.

marsbit1h ago

Chips, Open-Source Models, and $50 Trillion: Joe Tsai Reassesses Alibaba Once Again

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

417 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow