SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-05-06Actualizado a 2024-05-06

Resumen

就业数据今年首度低于预期（没有意外走高），整体就业人口变动+17.5万（先前的平均增量约为27.5万左右）。上周五加密货币价格出现大幅反弹，周末BTC现货价格突破6.4万美元。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

就业数据今年首度低于预期（没有意外走高），整体就业人口变动 + 17.5 万（先前的平均增量约为 27.5 万左右），失业率也意外从 3.83% 上升至 3.87% 。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

其他更高频率的就业市场指标也开始显示放缓迹象，例如近期的 JOLTS 报告显示职位空缺与失业人口比率降低，以及私营部门招聘和离职率处于多年来低点。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

此外，小型企业的招聘趋势明显减弱，ISM 和 PMI 中的就业部分均表现疲软，正在进行招聘的服务业和制造业企业比例下降至通常在经济衰退时才出现的水平。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

上周五我们指出非农就业数据结果较有可能倾向鸽派，特别是考虑到美联储 FOMC 明确表示他们正提高对就业市场走软的关注，并愿意忽视近期的通胀情况。如今，就业数据确实疲软，降息预期回归市场再度引发一波风险反弹。

收益率出现牛陡走势， 2 年期收益率从 5% 回落至 4.8% ， 10 年期收益率回到 4.5% ，市场定价再度预测今年有近 2 次降息。股市方面，科技股上涨 2% ，SPX 收在 5, 100 点上方，美元兑日圆在 48 小时内从上周高点 159 跌至 152.5 。总而言之，市场情绪受到鸽派利率背景的提振，以强劲的风险反弹结束上周。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

本周宏观数据将相对清淡，美联储官员们的发言可能会比数据本身来得重要，中国将发布货币供给/融资数据，而美国将有 Barkin、Williams、Kashkari、Jerrferson、Collins、Cook 以及 Bowman 等轮流发表政策意见。经过几周的风险清洗，市场头寸相较于 3 月应该更加干净，风险情绪可能已经找到近期底部，至少在数据开始隐含更多“硬着陆”风险前会是如此。随着投资者持续调整投资组合而不是直接抛售股票，SPX 的实际波动率仍然非常低，Bloomberg 报导称，在当前的调整期间，SPX 的领导股票发生变化，虽然比较像是在 ‘magnificient 7 ’ 中轮流替换。预计风险资产有机会从这里开始缓慢爬升。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

加密货币与宏观情绪的相关性越来越强，随着市场情绪重新转向宽松的美联储/远期利率走低/股市走强，尽管黄金现货表现疲软，上周五加密货币价格出现大幅反弹，周末 BTC 现货价格突破 6.4 万美元。上周五美国 ETF 流入强劲，达 3.78 亿美元，甚至连 Grayscale 也出现了 6, 300 万美元的资金流入。在当前宏观环境下，我们维持风险回报变得更加中性的看法，预计短期的价格回调更有利于逢低买入。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240506)： 风险资产有机会再次开始缓慢爬升

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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