元宇宙市场规模堪比手机,高通CEO“一语成谶”?

元宇宙见闻Publicado em 2022-05-09Última atualização em 2022-05-09

Resumo

自从2021年6月接手高通CEO以来,克里斯蒂亚诺·阿蒙和Meta、Microsoft等建立了深度合作关系。

自从2021年6月接手高通CEO以来,克里斯蒂亚诺·阿蒙和Meta、Microsoft等建立了深度合作关系。

阿蒙表示,元宇宙是一个非常巨大的机会,“我们最主要的合作伙伴之一就是Meta”。他还声称,高通和Meta在AR/VR领域的合作是成功的,包括Quest和Quest2。

此外,高通与字节跳动旗下的Tiktok也有相关合作。

很显然,AR/VR正获得互联网、科技巨头的进一步关注,新一轮热潮已经掀起,且远超以往。这背后很大一部分原因,就在于元宇宙。

人工智能“未竟之志”

在元宇宙之前,AR/VR曾借人工智能的火热势头“重生”过一次,只是不算太成功。

2017年3月,人工智能被首次写入政府工作报告;

同年,国家又发布了《新一代人工智能发展规划》,明确将AI上升到国家战略层面,并提出要实现虚拟现实、增强现实等技术与人工智能的有机结合和高效互动,突破高性能软件建模、内容拍摄生成、增强现实与人机交互、集成环境与工具等关键技术,建立虚拟现实与增强现实的技术、产品、服务标准和评价体系;

2020年7月,中央网信办等五部门发布《国家新一代人工智能标准体系建设指南》,明确到2023年,初步建立人工智能标准体系,重点研制数据、算法、系统、服务等重点急需标准。

那几年里,人工智能的热度丝毫不逊色于如今的元宇宙,甚至犹有过之。而AR/VR在诸多人工智能政策文件中也屡屡被提及,成为行业热点之一。

实际上,人工智能与AR/VR之间,于技术、产业两端均有深刻互补关系。例如,人工智能可以助力于AR/VR的操作,例如跟踪物体、创建3D世界的详细模型、了解这些模型的特征,并对它们做出判断等。

鉴于此,原本AR/VR领域传统的计算机视觉方法逐渐被人工智能技术取代。不少业内人士表示,人工智能将极大促进以AR/VR为代表的沉浸式技术在消费和商业领域实现落地应用,并取得规模化效应。

“结合人工智能与AR/VR,将为我们创造许多难以置信的机会”。

在人工智能的助推下,AR/VR也的的确确迎来了一波升温。

在旅游业,通过AR/VR设备,航空公司、酒店、度假村、游乐园和顶级旅游景点可以让潜在客户提前体验旅居环境;在消费圈,VR被用于提升购物体验,人们可以试穿衣服或试驾汽车,得到不同以往的消费感受。

只是人工智能对于AR/VR来说,只是一隅美景,而不是真正的星辰大海。

元宇宙是最终解?

高通CEO阿蒙认为,元宇宙是真实的,会成为一个非常大的商机,甚至可能与手机市场规模一样大。他认为,“元宇宙并不虚幻,而是一个非常大的机会”。

之所以与手机进行对比,当然在于AR/VR。从技术演进方向来看,现阶段元宇宙最有可能依托于VR来实现。因为沉浸式体验是元宇宙的基本特征之一,而VR/AR设备是支持沉浸式体验的必要硬件。

因此,AR/VR设备被认为是元宇宙的入口,或者说不可或缺的硬件基础设施。

“VR/AR技术是通往元宇宙的关键接口,VR/AR与元宇宙的关系就如同手机之于互联网”。

而阿蒙所说的元宇宙可能与手机市场规模一样大,更多指的是AR/VR。毕竟元宇宙可不仅仅是AR/VR。

目前,在“元宇宙”概念带动下,Meta谷歌、字节跳动等国内外科技巨头纷纷入局,AR/VR市场前景豁然明朗,2021年已经开始呈现爆发式增长。

据IDC发布的全球AR/VR头显市场跟踪报告,2021年全球AR/VR头显出货量达1123万台,同比增长92.1%,其中VR头显出货量1095万台。

IDC预测,在2021年~2025年,AR产业将进入爆发期,有望达到年均138%的增速,在2025年达到2100万台的终端销售量。

在未来,一旦AR/VR技术实现进一步升级,在交互、沉浸等方面的不足得到完善,有望成为像电脑和手机一样的生产力工具,愈发融入我们的工作和生活当中。届时,AR/VR市场直追智能手机当然不是梦。

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