SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

Odaily星球日报Published on 2023-12-18Last updated on 2023-12-18

Abstract

市场似乎已经迈入了今年的最终章，交易员开始逐渐减少交易量，跨资产波动率也开始下降。在加密货币方面，价格继续停滞不前，关于ETF的乐观情绪可能已完全反映在价格中，GBTC的NAV折价已经迅速缩窄。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

这两天很多人都开始休假过双节了，交易所大宗都没量了，我看最近最大的一笔也就 25 万美金不到，买了 3 月底 37000 的看跌。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前年底到期的 BTC 的波动率微笑曲线！各位老板们，你们有必要这么悲观么？左边看跌期权的波动率比右边高太多了！看跌期权的买方需求好大。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

市场似乎已经迈入了今年的最终章，交易员开始逐渐减少交易量，跨资产波动率也开始下降，日本央行成为今年唯一剩下的“事件风险”，疲软的美国制造业数据（12 月纽约联储制造业指数 -23.6 点至 -14.5 点）进一步支持了美联储转向的论点，随著美联储在核心通胀依然远高于长期目标值的情况下抛开了谨慎，市场的 FOMO 情绪日益增强，即使是最坚定的空头，也不禁开始认为这是否是下一轮资产膨胀浪潮的开始。

上周，随著交易员在美联储鸽派声明后纷纷涌入看涨操作，SPX 期权未平仓量创下历史新高，超过了疫情前的高点，此外，Russell 2000 指数在短短 1.5 个月内从 52 周低点升至 52 周高点，这种剧烈的走势再次证明了“牛市”或“熊市”这些传统标签毫无意义。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

回顾历史，第一次降息前的路径总体上对股市有利，降息后的价格走势则取决于经济是否真正陷入衰退，当前周期似乎处于典型宽松周期的中间阶段，后续走势将取决于当前硬数据的放缓是否会演变成全面衰退。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

在加密货币方面，价格继续停滞不前，关于 ETF 的乐观情绪可能已完全反映在价格中，GBTC 的 NAV 折价已经迅速缩窄；虽然 ETF 的批准肯定对市场情绪有正面影响，但必须注意的是，初始资金流很大一部分可能来自 GBTC 和上市矿企的资金流出，不过随著投资者开始回归“现金就是垃圾”的观点，全球债券收益率的大幅下跌可能会抵消其中一些影响，但这也将使我们再次受制于债券收益率的动向。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

此外，卖方分析师预计，当前的走势很大程度上是由散户对机构重新参与的投机心态所驱动的，后续当消息真正公布后，可能反而会出现抛售情况，考虑到 BTC 当前的超买状况，也许 ETH/BTC 的价差交易可能会是不错的策略？只有时间能给出答案了...

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231218)：接近年末，加密市场停滞不前

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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