今日币价07/07:比特币暴跌至3万美元,山寨币和美股火热,因投资者担心美联储将继续加息

Tap Chi BitcoinPublished on 2023-07-07Last updated on 2023-07-07

Abstract

7 月 6 日华尔街开盘后,比特币继续波动,当年高点被回调所取代。

7 月 6 日华尔街开盘后,比特币继续波动,当年高点被回调所取代。

BTC 价格图表 – 1 小时 |来源:TradingView

周四(7月6日)美国股市下跌,好于预期的就业数据引发投资者对未来利率走势的担忧。

截至收盘,道琼斯指数下跌366.38点(相当于1.07%)至33922.26点。标准普尔 500 指数下跌 0.79%,至 4,411.59 点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.82%至13,679.04点。周四标记道琼斯指数和标准普尔 500 指数自 2023 年 5 月以来的最大跌幅。

三大股指都将创下单周跌幅纪录,仅剩周五交易日。道琼斯指数本周迄今已下跌 1.4%,标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌 0.9% 和 0.8%。

ADP数据显示,6月美国私营部门新增就业岗位49.7万个,标记2022年7月以来最强劲的月份。 6 月份的就业增长是道琼斯预测的 220,000 个就业岗位的两倍多,远好于 5 月份的 267,000 个。两年期美国国债收益率上升至交易 16 年来的新高。

ADP 数据通常不可靠,并且被认为比其他就业数据波动性更大,该数据发布于周五美国官方 6 月就业报告(7 月 7 日 07)之前。经济学家预测美国经济上个月创造了 24 万个就业岗位,略低于 5 月份新增的 33.9 万个就业岗位。

然而,投资者现在可能期待更热门的数据,导致美联储(Fed)在6月会议暂停后,本月恢复加息。CME Group的FedWatch工具,投资者预测美联储加息的可能性为92%在月底的会议上。

另一方面,根据美国劳工部的报告,5 月份招聘人数下降幅度超出预期。这一数据可能会给稀缺的劳动力市场至少有所缓解带来希望。

与此同时,周四(7月6日)金价跌至近一周来最低水平,好于预期的美国私营部门就业报告提振了对美联储将加息的预期更多,从而推高美国债券收益率。

截至周四交易日,现货黄金合约下跌0.38%至每盎司1,910.01美元。黄金期货下跌 0.6%,至每盎司 1,915.4 美元。

周四(7月6日)油价基本持平,因市场权衡美国原油供应更加稀缺以及美联储加息可能抑制能源需求。

截至收盘,布伦特原油合约下跌 13 美分,至每桶 76.52 美元,前一交易日上涨 0.5%。 WTI 合约小幅上涨 1 美分,至每桶 71.8 美元,前一交易日上涨 2.9%,追赶本周早些时候布伦特原油价格。

TradingView 的数据追踪了 BTC 价格走势,当时其价格徘徊在 30,000 美元大关附近。

当天早些时候,比特币上涨至 2022 年中期以来的最高水平,但随着最大的加密货币回吐了所有涨幅,这场盛会很快就结束了。

BTC/美元甚至在 29,701 美元附近创下了 7 月新低。

受欢迎的交易员 Jelle 是关注价格重返 28,000 美元区间可能性的人士之一,他认为这是一个合适的切入点。

交易公司 8 的创始人兼首席执行官 Michaël van de Poppe 在部分评论中写道:“比特币已回到底部,需要转为看涨,否则可能会出现 28,500 美元的情况。市场预计在积极的失业数据的支持下加息。”

BTC/USD 图表,带标题 |资料来源:迈克尔·范·德·波普

Van de Poppe提到了华尔街开市前公布的强劲美国就业数据,这提振了市场对美联储(Fed)将在7月底再次加息的预期。

随着BTC跌破3万美元,许多未平仓合约被清仓,但总体清算量仍然不是很高。

根据监控资源 CoinGlass 的数据,7 月 6 日,BTC做多和做空清算额为 4300 万美元。加密货币清算总额约为 1.2 亿美元。

加密货币清算数据 |来源:CoinGlass

在山寨币方面,市场继续走低,最大的市值资产回到 30,000 美元以下。

领涨的是 Fantom (FTM),代币当天价值下跌了 10% 以上。该项目也抹去了前一周的势头,近7天跌幅接近11%。

前 100 名中的其他主要山寨币如 WOO Network (WOO)、ApeCoin (APE)、Lido DAO (LDO)、Algorand (ALGO)、Pepe (PEPE)、Litecoin (LTC)、Mina (MINA)、Injective (INJ) 、Filecoin (FIL)、UNUS SED LEO (LEO)……当日跌幅为 4-9%。

资料来源:Coinmarketcap

在触及 1,956 美元的局部高点后,以太坊(ETH) 面临巨大的抛售压力,拖累第二大市值资产突破 1,900 美元大关,在 1,832 美元附近建立局部底部,为 6 月下旬以来的最低水平。ETH 目前已略有回升至1,844美元附近,当日跌幅近3%。

ETH 价格图表 – 1 小时 |来源:TradingView

Related Reads

STRC Breaks Below $95: Why Does It Continue to Depeg? Is There Default Risk?

"STRC Falls Below $95: Why the Persistent Depegging and Is There Default Risk?" The article discusses the recent decline in the price of STRC, a perpetual preferred stock issued by Strategy (MSTR) designed to trade around a $100 par value. As of publication, STRC traded at $94.65, raising market concerns. STRC is described as a high-yield cash flow product, offering an 11.50% annual dividend paid monthly. Its "preferred" status grants it priority over common stock for dividends and in liquidation. Key reasons cited for the price depegging include: 1. **Bitcoin's Price Drop:** MSTR's assets are heavily tied to Bitcoin (BTC), which fell over 21% from its recent high, pressuring all Strategy-related products. 2. **Competitive Pressure:** Rival Strive Asset Management's similar product, SATA, offers daily dividends and has maintained its $100 par value with a ~13% yield. In response, Strategy has proposed changing STRC's dividend frequency from monthly to bi-weekly, pending shareholder vote. 3. **Technical Selling:** A break below $100 may have triggered algorithmic selling and stop-losses, exacerbating the decline. Regarding default risk, the analysis suggests it is currently low. Strategy founder Michael Saylor confirmed the June 2026 dividend rate remains at 11.50% with no cuts or suspensions. The company's massive reserve of 843,706 BTC provides a significant backstop for its obligations. Industry opinions are mixed. Some analysts view the BTC holdings as reliable support for dividends, while critics like Peter Schiff warn of potential dividend cuts leading to price crashes and lawsuits. Others highlight inflation risk and the company's ability to reduce dividends without a formal default. In summary, STRC's drop is attributed to BTC volatility, competition, and technical factors. While immediate default risk appears contained, the product faces challenges from market conditions and competitive dynamics.

marsbitHá 1h

STRC Breaks Below $95: Why Does It Continue to Depeg? Is There Default Risk?

marsbitHá 1h

AI Trading Cools, South Korean Stocks Plunge 1.8%, Spot Gold Rises 1%, Bitcoin Dives

A sell-off in AI-related stocks, triggered by Broadcom's disappointing earnings forecast, sent shockwaves through global markets. South Korea's KOSPI led Asia's decline, plunging 1.8% as the risks from concentrated chip stock gains and surging leveraged investments came to the fore. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5% following Broadcom's 14% after-hours plunge, which signaled a slower-than-expected transition to AI clients. This pullback extended Wall Street's weakness, halting the S&P 500's nine-day rally amid hawkish Fed signals and renewed Middle East tensions. South Korean authorities convened an emergency meeting, pledging "immediate measures" against market volatility and warning of record-high stock margin debt. The adjustment rippled across assets: Bitcoin fell to around $64,000, its lowest since February, while safe-haven gold rose 1% on bargain hunting. Oil prices dipped on Middle East ceasefire news. Market analysts noted the sell-off was driven by profit-taking after massive gains, particularly in chip stocks like Samsung and SK Hynix, which now dominate the KOSPI. Wall Street banks are divided on Korea's outlook, with Goldman Sachs raising its target while Citigroup and others warn of overvaluation and a potential bubble. Bridgewater's Ray Dalio noted that great technological shifts often create bubbles. Meanwhile, Fed officials' hints at potential future rate hikes added to the cautious mood ahead of key U.S. jobs data.

华尔街日报Há 1h

AI Trading Cools, South Korean Stocks Plunge 1.8%, Spot Gold Rises 1%, Bitcoin Dives

华尔街日报Há 1h

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片