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Standard Chartered has lowered its Bitcoin forecast for the end of 2025 from $200,000 to $100,000. Analysts explained the halving of the target by stating that companies with crypto reserves operating on the Michael Saylor Strategy model have stopped buying cryptocurrencies, and the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has sharply slowed down.
As of 5:00 PM Moscow time on December 9, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating around $90,500. BTC last traded at the $100,000 mark almost a month ago, on November 13.
"Crypto Winters Are a Thing of the Past"
Standard Chartered's long-term forecast still stands at $500,000, but now by 2030 instead of 2028, reports Decrypt. The bank stated that large-scale purchases by Strategy analogues "have exhausted themselves," and further Bitcoin growth will be determined by ETF inflows—hence, the primary cryptocurrency will rise, but slower than previously forecasted.
Standard Chartered believes crypto winters are a thing of the past. Rejecting the concept of Bitcoin's four-year cycles, analysts are confident that "this time it's really different."
Return of Liquidity
Looking at the statistics of recent weeks, it's evident that capital flows, both into and out of ETFs, have significantly decreased compared to previous months, says Alexander Peresich, CEO of Tehnobit. According to him, if they show a return of liquidity to the market, Bitcoin could test $100,000 by the end of December.
A decline, however, indicates that institutional investors have currently reoriented towards other assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty, the analyst explains. He added that to restore risk appetite, investors need clear signals about future US monetary policy.
"If market participants see positive signals about impending easing, institutional capital could return to the crypto market, which would push Bitcoin to the $100,000 mark and ETH to $4,000," said Peresich.
Challenging Conditions
Bitget Research considers the probability of BTC returning to $100,000 in 2025 to be low. Bitcoin could test $95,000-$100,000 again in early 2026, and Ethereum could rise to $3,800 as institutional capital returns and the macroeconomic situation improves, says the company's lead analyst, Ryan Lee.
The basis for this forecast is the drop of the fear and greed index into the "extreme fear" zone (indicating reduced buying activity) and increased volatility, which makes investors less willing to take on risk, the analyst explained. Lee also noted a potential key rate hike in Japan in December; such factors cause some capital to flow into less risky assets like bonds.
"Under such conditions, it is more difficult for the market to form a powerful bullish impulse that could quickly push Bitcoin to $100,000," said Lee.
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