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US Stocks Hit Record Highs: Why Isn't the Market Afraid of the Flames of War?

U.S. stocks hit a record high on April 15, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,022.95, just 77 days after its previous peak. This rebound occurred in only 11 trading days—far faster than recoveries following past crises like the COVID-19 pandemic (103 days) or the 2011 debt crisis (106 days). The market's rapid recovery is attributed to "ceasefire expectations" rather than deteriorating economic fundamentals. During the sell-off triggered by the U.S.-Israel military action against Iran in late February, the S&P 500 fell nearly 10%. However, the market rallied twice on ceasefire rumors—first on March 24 and again on April 8—even before any permanent peace deal was signed. Notably, the VIX fear index fell below pre-war levels, indicating that the market had repriced the conflict from an uncertainty to a calculable risk. Major financial institutions like JPMorgan reported record trading revenues of $11.6 billion in Q1 2026, largely driven by volatility in commodities and emerging markets. Hedge funds turned net long for the first time since late 2025, while margin debt hit a record $1.28 trillion. This reflects a financial system that commercializes volatility, treating geopolitical shocks as tradable opportunities rather than systemic threats. However, the current optimism relies on assumptions of a sustained ceasefire and stable oil prices, leaving the market vulnerable if these conditions change.

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US Stocks Hit Record Highs: Why Isn't the Market Afraid of the Flames of War?

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