On Tuesday, bitcoin fluctuated between $63,300 and $64,300 amid reports that the U.S. Senate could vote on the CLARITY Act bill this week. Since rebounding to the $63,000 level shortly after noon on August 3rd, the cryptocurrency has largely held above this key threshold.
In fact, data from the past 24 hours shows that, aside from two instances when it plunged to $63,300 (August 3rd, 9:00 PM ET) and $63,400 (August 4th, 6:30 AM ET), bitcoin found support above the $63,500 mark. Initially, it seemed the cryptocurrency was losing momentum after hitting $64,000. However, following a rise to $64,129 (10:20 AM ET), each subsequent surge led to a new session high, culminating in a daily peak of $64,360.
Although the price retreated slightly soon after, bitcoin's price momentum led to another minor increase (0.8%), bringing its market capitalization to $1.29 trillion. In the derivatives market, bitcoin's 24-hour price action was particularly brutal for traders with over-leveraged short positions. Coinglass data shows that of the $42 million liquidated during this period, short positions accounted for 83% of the total, or $35 million. Across the broader cryptoeconomy, $122 million in short positions were liquidated compared to $58 million in long positions.
As Bitcoin.com News reported earlier today, Senate Majority Leader John Thune remains optimistic that the bill will be brought to a vote before the parliamentary recess begins. However, with less than three days left in the session and given the history of such unfulfilled promises, Thune's comments failed to sway traders on prediction markets.
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 fell to 25% by Tuesday afternoon, down from 27% on Monday. If the bill's consideration is delayed, bitcoin's chances of rising by year-end will depend more on general macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific factors. Bitfinex analysts agree, noting that rising real yields and bitcoin's ability to hold within the $62,000–$65,000 support range will determine its future direction.
"August has started with immediate pressure: a reversal from the intra-week peak of $65,420 led to a close below $63,000, followed by a closing price of $62,815 on Saturday, August 1st, 2026. Two daily closes below the $63,000 level officially activate the downside trigger set in last week's Intelligence Update," wrote Bitfinex analysts in the latest report.
The analysts also argue that the market remains dependent on macroeconomic factors, pointing to a strong long-duration bond market and current equity market pressure which have increased the strain on BTC. Nonetheless, for bitcoin, the most important factor is not economic growth. "It is the real value of money—the yield investors can obtain after accounting for inflation. The current situation can both help and hinder," the analysts conclude.
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