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On April 21, former President Trump reiterated multiple times that the ceasefire agreement will expire at 11 PM Washington time on Wednesday, and it is 'extremely unlikely' that the ceasefire will be extended. At the same time, Trump stated that Vance will travel to Pakistan later on Monday, and 'the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened before the agreement is signed.' On the other hand, Iran maintained a firm stance during U.S. trading hours, stating that 'the decision not to participate in negotiations has not changed.' However, U.S. media reported that 'the Iranian delegation will arrive on Tuesday morning, close to the arrival time of the U.S. delegation.' Due to Iran's tough stance, the S&P 500 index fell 0.24% on Monday, the Nasdaq dropped 0.26%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained basically flat. Crude oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude rising by 2.51% to $90.39. Bitcoin, on the other hand, showed relative strength, possibly boosted by significant purchases from Strategy. According to HTX, Bitcoin once again surpassed $76,000 this morning, currently priced at $75,853.42, with a 24-hour increase of 0.19%. Investors are highly focused on whether the U.S.-Iran situation will escalate again. In the next couple of days, whether the Iranian delegation can arrive in Islamabad on time and whether peace talks can be resumed are the main points of market attention.

[Ceasefire Agreement Nears Expiration as Iran Remains Firm, Market Fears Escalation; Bitcoin Strengthens]On April 21, former President Trump reiterated multiple times that the ceasefire agreement will expire at 11 PM Washington time on Wednesday, and it is 'extremely unlikely' that the ceasefire will be extended. At the same time, Trump stated that Vance will travel to Pakistan later on Monday, and 'the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened before the agreement is signed.' On the other hand, Iran maintained a firm stance during U.S. trading hours, stating that 'the decision not to participate in negotiations has not changed.' However, U.S. media reported that 'the Iranian delegation will arrive on Tuesday morning, close to the arrival time of the U.S. delegation.' Due to Iran's tough stance, the S&P 500 index fell 0.24% on Monday, the Nasdaq dropped 0.26%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained basically flat. Crude oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude rising by 2.51% to $90.39. Bitcoin, on the other hand, showed relative strength, possibly boosted by significant purchases from Strategy. According to HTX, Bitcoin once again surpassed $76,000 this morning, currently priced at $75,853.42, with a 24-hour increase of 0.19%. Investors are highly focused on whether the U.S.-Iran situation will escalate again. In the next couple of days, whether the Iranian delegation can arrive in Islamabad on time and whether peace talks can be resumed are the main points of market attention.

Ceasefire Agreement Nears Expiration as Iran Remains Firm, Market Fears Escalation; Bitcoin Strengthens

On April 21, Trump will participate in a CNBC finance program at 8:30 PM Beijing time.

[Trump to Appear on CNBC Finance Program Tonight]On April 21, Trump will participate in a CNBC finance program at 8:30 PM Beijing time.

Trump to Appear on CNBC Finance Program Tonight

On April 21, during a phone interview with CNN, U.S. President Trump stated that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in potential talks set to take place in Pakistan. Trump remarked, "They will negotiate; if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems." He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair agreement" and emphasized that Iran "will not have nuclear weapons." Additionally, he defended military actions against Iran by stating there was "no choice" and claimed that they would ultimately "wrap things up."

[Trump Claims Iran Will Negotiate]On April 21, during a phone interview with CNN, U.S. President Trump stated that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in potential talks set to take place in Pakistan. Trump remarked, "They will negotiate; if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems." He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair agreement" and emphasized that Iran "will not have nuclear weapons." Additionally, he defended military actions against Iran by stating there was "no choice" and claimed that they would ultimately "wrap things up."

Trump Claims Iran Will Negotiate

On April 21, Glassnode released a report indicating that while buying interest remains strong, providing some buffer for prices, market sentiment is turning cautious. Data shows that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading has shifted from positive to negative, indicating rising selling pressure and the emergence of bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, centralized exchanges are active, maintaining high market participation. In the futures market, an increase in open interest suggests a rising risk appetite, but the funding rates for long positions have significantly decreased, and the CVD for perpetual contracts has sharply declined, indicating that traders are more willing to pay a premium to short, with reduced buying enthusiasm and increasing bearish sentiment. In the options market, a decrease in demand for downside protection may ease bearish sentiment, but a contraction in open interest could imply profit-taking, affecting future volatility. The narrowing of volatility spreads suggests a shift in market sentiment from risk pricing to neutrality. The ETF sector stands out, with the MVRV ratio and net inflows of U.S. spot ETFs rising, indicating enhanced profitability and investor interest, along with a significant increase in trading activity, reflecting growing enthusiasm for participating in Bitcoin through regulated channels, leading to cautiously optimistic market sentiment. In terms of liquidity, a decrease in hot money share and a narrowing of realized market cap changes indicate dominance by long-term holders and alleviated net outflows. The supply ratio between short-term and long-term holders remains stable, with long-term holders showing solid confidence.

[Glassnode: Intensified Market Tug-of-War as Spot CVD Turns Negative, Increased Selling Pressure, but ETF Inflows Provide Support]On April 21, Glassnode released a report indicating that while buying interest remains strong, providing some buffer for prices, market sentiment is turning cautious. Data shows that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading has shifted from positive to negative, indicating rising selling pressure and the emergence of bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, centralized exchanges are active, maintaining high market participation. In the futures market, an increase in open interest suggests a rising risk appetite, but the funding rates for long positions have significantly decreased, and the CVD for perpetual contracts has sharply declined, indicating that traders are more willing to pay a premium to short, with reduced buying enthusiasm and increasing bearish sentiment. In the options market, a decrease in demand for downside protection may ease bearish sentiment, but a contraction in open interest could imply profit-taking, affecting future volatility. The narrowing of volatility spreads suggests a shift in market sentiment from risk pricing to neutrality. The ETF sector stands out, with the MVRV ratio and net inflows of U.S. spot ETFs rising, indicating enhanced profitability and investor interest, along with a significant increase in trading activity, reflecting growing enthusiasm for participating in Bitcoin through regulated channels, leading to cautiously optimistic market sentiment. In terms of liquidity, a decrease in hot money share and a narrowing of realized market cap changes indicate dominance by long-term holders and alleviated net outflows. The supply ratio between short-term and long-term holders remains stable, with long-term holders showing solid confidence.

Glassnode: Intensified Market Tug-of-War as Spot CVD Turns Negative, Increased Selling Pressure, but ETF Inflows Provide Support

On April 21, Amazon announced on Monday that it will invest an additional $5 billion in the artificial intelligence company Anthropic, bringing the total investment to as much as $20 billion. Anthropic develops the Claude chatbot and programming tools, and plans to invest over $100 billion in Amazon's cloud technology and chips over the next decade.

[Amazon to Invest Additional $5 Billion in Anthropic]On April 21, Amazon announced on Monday that it will invest an additional $5 billion in the artificial intelligence company Anthropic, bringing the total investment to as much as $20 billion. Anthropic develops the Claude chatbot and programming tools, and plans to invest over $100 billion in Amazon's cloud technology and chips over the next decade.

Amazon to Invest Additional $5 Billion in Anthropic

On April 21, according to local reports from Iran, a cargo ship flying the Iranian flag is transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, disregarding a blockade imposed by U.S. forces. The vessel reportedly departed from Shahid Rajaei Port near the southern Iranian port of Abbas and is heading towards Kandla Port in India. Additionally, Iranian sources reported early on the 21st that ship tracking data indicated that three vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 12 hours. It was noted that one tanker exited the Persian Gulf via the strait, while two other ships entered.

[Iranian-flagged Cargo Ship Transits Strait of Hormuz]On April 21, according to local reports from Iran, a cargo ship flying the Iranian flag is transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, disregarding a blockade imposed by U.S. forces. The vessel reportedly departed from Shahid Rajaei Port near the southern Iranian port of Abbas and is heading towards Kandla Port in India. Additionally, Iranian sources reported early on the 21st that ship tracking data indicated that three vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 12 hours. It was noted that one tanker exited the Persian Gulf via the strait, while two other ships entered.

Iranian-flagged Cargo Ship Transits Strait of Hormuz

On April 21, according to CCTV, the U.S. military is expected to deploy three carrier strike groups simultaneously in the Middle East in the coming days. Currently, the USS Lincoln strike group is stationed in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz, participating in maritime blockade operations; the USS Ford strike group is located in the northern Red Sea; and the USS Bush strike group, which is taking a route around Africa, is heading north from the southeast of Africa and is expected to enter the Arabian Sea—this carrier may replace the USS Ford in its mission. In the short term, the U.S. military may have three aircraft carriers in the Middle East.

[Three U.S. Carrier Strike Groups May Deploy Simultaneously in the Middle East]On April 21, according to CCTV, the U.S. military is expected to deploy three carrier strike groups simultaneously in the Middle East in the coming days. Currently, the USS Lincoln strike group is stationed in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz, participating in maritime blockade operations; the USS Ford strike group is located in the northern Red Sea; and the USS Bush strike group, which is taking a route around Africa, is heading north from the southeast of Africa and is expected to enter the Arabian Sea—this carrier may replace the USS Ford in its mission. In the short term, the U.S. military may have three aircraft carriers in the Middle East.

Three U.S. Carrier Strike Groups May Deploy Simultaneously in the Middle East

On April 21, the Dark Side of the Moon officially launched and open-sourced the new model Kimi K2.6. According to the benchmarks released by the official sources, its coding capabilities match or surpass those of GPT 5.4 and Opus 4.6 (AI Cambrian).

[Kimi 2.6 Officially Released at Midnight]On April 21, the Dark Side of the Moon officially launched and open-sourced the new model Kimi K2.6. According to the benchmarks released by the official sources, its coding capabilities match or surpass those of GPT 5.4 and Opus 4.6 (AI Cambrian).

Kimi 2.6 Officially Released at Midnight

On April 20, according to CME's 'FedWatch': the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively lowering rates by 25 basis points by June is 2.5%, with a 97.5% chance of keeping rates unchanged.

[Probability of Federal Reserve Keeping Rates Unchanged in April is 100%]On April 20, according to CME's 'FedWatch': the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively lowering rates by 25 basis points by June is 2.5%, with a 97.5% chance of keeping rates unchanged.

Probability of Federal Reserve Keeping Rates Unchanged in April is 100%

Hong Kong is moving forward with a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional financial assets, seeking public comments on stablecoins and planning to introduce a regulatory framework by the end of 2024. This development is a major milestone for the region, which has taken a welcoming stance towards crypto trading in contrast to mainland China where it is illegal.

[Hong Kong eyes Stablecoin Regulatory Regime by 2024]Hong Kong is moving forward with a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional financial assets, seeking public comments on stablecoins and planning to introduce a regulatory framework by the end of 2024. This development is a major milestone for the region, which has taken a welcoming stance towards crypto trading in contrast to mainland China where it is illegal.

Hong Kong eyes Stablecoin Regulatory Regime by 2024

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Article

Qiu Dagen: Hong Kong Needs a Stable, Transparent, and Continuous Development Environment and Regulatory Policies

Hong Kong eyes Stablecoin Regulatory Regime by 2024

Disclaimer：Il contenuto di cui sopra non rappresenta le posizioni di HTX.，HTX non fornisce alcuna raccomandazione di trading.。

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