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On July 14, according to The Block, former Los Angeles County Sheriff's Deputy Scott Simpkins was sentenced to 18 months in prison for obstructing a federal investigation into jailed cryptocurrency merchant Adam Iza. Prosecutors stated that Simpkins denied witnessing Iza threatening a victim and extorting a $25,000 bank transfer in a 2021 incident.

[Former LAPD Officer Sentenced to 18 Months for Perjury on Behalf of Crypto Merchant]On July 14, according to The Block, former Los Angeles County Sheriff's Deputy Scott Simpkins was sentenced to 18 months in prison for obstructing a federal investigation into jailed cryptocurrency merchant Adam Iza. Prosecutors stated that Simpkins denied witnessing Iza threatening a victim and extorting a $25,000 bank transfer in a 2021 incident.

Former LAPD Officer Sentenced to 18 Months for Perjury on Behalf of Crypto Merchant

On July 14, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military airbase in Jordan and called on Jordanian citizens to resist the U.S. military presence. Jordan stated that its air defense system successfully intercepted four Iranian missiles that entered its airspace, causing no casualties or property damage. In response, the U.S. Central Command, authorized by President Trump, launched approximately five hours of continuous airstrikes on targets inside Iran. This marks the third consecutive night of large-scale U.S. strikes on Iran. According to Iranian media, multiple targets, including the port of Bandar Abbas, were hit, and some naval maintenance facilities were damaged. Meanwhile, tensions remain high in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump recently proposed that the U.S. would take responsibility for maintaining security in the Strait of Hormuz and plans to impose a 20% fee on goods transiting through it, sparking widespread international controversy. Amid escalating Middle East tensions, international oil prices briefly rose nearly 3%, as market concerns grow that risks to shipping in the strait could further worsen global energy supply shortages.

[US Launches 5-Hour Airstrikes on Iran After Iranian Bombing of US Base in Jordan]On July 14, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military airbase in Jordan and called on Jordanian citizens to resist the U.S. military presence. Jordan stated that its air defense system successfully intercepted four Iranian missiles that entered its airspace, causing no casualties or property damage. In response, the U.S. Central Command, authorized by President Trump, launched approximately five hours of continuous airstrikes on targets inside Iran. This marks the third consecutive night of large-scale U.S. strikes on Iran. According to Iranian media, multiple targets, including the port of Bandar Abbas, were hit, and some naval maintenance facilities were damaged. Meanwhile, tensions remain high in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump recently proposed that the U.S. would take responsibility for maintaining security in the Strait of Hormuz and plans to impose a 20% fee on goods transiting through it, sparking widespread international controversy. Amid escalating Middle East tensions, international oil prices briefly rose nearly 3%, as market concerns grow that risks to shipping in the strait could further worsen global energy supply shortages.

US Launches 5-Hour Airstrikes on Iran After Iranian Bombing of US Base in Jordan

On July 14, according to a trader familiar with the transactions and a government official, the won rose as SK Hynix sold dollars in the local forex market. The dollar-won exchange rate fell 0.3% to 1,492.95, after having dropped as much as 0.7% to 1,486.20, a two-month low. Sources said Hanwha Ocean sold dollar forward contracts on Friday and Monday but has not sold any since Tuesday.

[Won Rises as SK Hynix Reportedly Sells Dollars in Local Forex Market]On July 14, according to a trader familiar with the transactions and a government official, the won rose as SK Hynix sold dollars in the local forex market. The dollar-won exchange rate fell 0.3% to 1,492.95, after having dropped as much as 0.7% to 1,486.20, a two-month low. Sources said Hanwha Ocean sold dollar forward contracts on Friday and Monday but has not sold any since Tuesday.

Won Rises as SK Hynix Reportedly Sells Dollars in Local Forex Market

On July 14, according to a study cited by Fortune, the rapid expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. has significantly increased public electricity costs. The PJM market monitor, responsible for regulating the power grids of 14 states in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions of the U.S., estimates that the additional electricity demand from data centers will result in an extra cost of approximately $23 billion for electricity users, an impact that will last at least until the end of 2028. The report states that although several large technology companies have pledged to cover the costs of new electricity infrastructure, some expenses may still be passed on to residential and ordinary commercial users because the costs of public facilities such as transmission lines, substations, and grid upgrades are typically allocated uniformly by regulators. The study also points out that some data centers can reduce their electricity consumption during peak grid periods by flexibly adjusting their power loads, thereby lowering their share of grid costs based on peak load. However, they still consume a large amount of electricity, resulting in their actual cost burden potentially being lower than the pressure they place on the grid. The analysis believes that as AI infrastructure construction continues to accelerate, issues such as electricity cost allocation mechanisms, data center electricity pricing, and residential electricity price increases are becoming important topics for U.S. energy regulation.

[Analysis: AI Data Centers Have Driven Up U.S. Electricity Prices by $23 Billion; Costs May Continue to Be Borne by Residents]On July 14, according to a study cited by Fortune, the rapid expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. has significantly increased public electricity costs. The PJM market monitor, responsible for regulating the power grids of 14 states in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions of the U.S., estimates that the additional electricity demand from data centers will result in an extra cost of approximately $23 billion for electricity users, an impact that will last at least until the end of 2028. The report states that although several large technology companies have pledged to cover the costs of new electricity infrastructure, some expenses may still be passed on to residential and ordinary commercial users because the costs of public facilities such as transmission lines, substations, and grid upgrades are typically allocated uniformly by regulators. The study also points out that some data centers can reduce their electricity consumption during peak grid periods by flexibly adjusting their power loads, thereby lowering their share of grid costs based on peak load. However, they still consume a large amount of electricity, resulting in their actual cost burden potentially being lower than the pressure they place on the grid. The analysis believes that as AI infrastructure construction continues to accelerate, issues such as electricity cost allocation mechanisms, data center electricity pricing, and residential electricity price increases are becoming important topics for U.S. energy regulation.

Analysis: AI Data Centers Have Driven Up U.S. Electricity Prices by $23 Billion; Costs May Continue to Be Borne by Residents

On July 14, a Bank of America fund manager survey showed that 83% of investors expect the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates before the November US midterm elections. (Jin Shi)

[Bank of America Fund Manager Survey: 83% of Investors Expect No Fed Rate Hike Before November US Midterm Elections]On July 14, a Bank of America fund manager survey showed that 83% of investors expect the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates before the November US midterm elections. (Jin Shi)

Bank of America Fund Manager Survey: 83% of Investors Expect No Fed Rate Hike Before November US Midterm Elections

On July 14, CoinDesk reported that on July 10, a Bitcoin solo miner used a Bitaxe device worth about $150 with a hash rate of about 1 TH/s. After running for only 8 hours, they successfully mined Bitcoin block 957,382, earning 3.1382 BTC (worth about $200,000). The probability of this happening is equivalent to once every 18,000 years.

[A Solo Miner Mined $200,000 Bitcoin Using a $150 Device Last Week]On July 14, CoinDesk reported that on July 10, a Bitcoin solo miner used a Bitaxe device worth about $150 with a hash rate of about 1 TH/s. After running for only 8 hours, they successfully mined Bitcoin block 957,382, earning 3.1382 BTC (worth about $200,000). The probability of this happening is equivalent to once every 18,000 years.

A Solo Miner Mined $200,000 Bitcoin Using a $150 Device Last Week

On July 14, the latest research report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that the recent sharp volatility in global tech stocks is mainly due to liquidity deleveraging triggered by high-leverage trading, rather than a deterioration in semiconductor industry fundamentals. Goldman Sachs stated that South Korea's newly launched single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs have amplified market volatility. Multiple leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix previously saw single-day declines of over 30%. To maintain leverage ratios, funds were forced to sell underlying stocks, creating a liquidity cascade of "price decline—forced selling—further decline." Goldman Sachs estimates that about 62% of recent net selling by South Korean institutional investors came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Meanwhile, Leuthold Group pointed out that U.S. margin debt has grown by approximately 54% over the past 12 months, entering a historically high range. Leveraged funds are highly concentrated in AI and semiconductor sectors, making the market structure more fragile. However, Goldman Sachs believes the semiconductor industry has not yet seen a cyclical peak. The firm noted that earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not been revised downward. Due to limited capacity expansion for memory chips, the supply tightness may persist until the second half of 2028. The current pullback appears more like a position adjustment rather than a reversal of industry fundamentals.

[Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor Fundamentals Still Supported, Leveraged ETFs Amplify Tech Stock Volatility]On July 14, the latest research report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that the recent sharp volatility in global tech stocks is mainly due to liquidity deleveraging triggered by high-leverage trading, rather than a deterioration in semiconductor industry fundamentals. Goldman Sachs stated that South Korea's newly launched single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs have amplified market volatility. Multiple leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix previously saw single-day declines of over 30%. To maintain leverage ratios, funds were forced to sell underlying stocks, creating a liquidity cascade of "price decline—forced selling—further decline." Goldman Sachs estimates that about 62% of recent net selling by South Korean institutional investors came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Meanwhile, Leuthold Group pointed out that U.S. margin debt has grown by approximately 54% over the past 12 months, entering a historically high range. Leveraged funds are highly concentrated in AI and semiconductor sectors, making the market structure more fragile. However, Goldman Sachs believes the semiconductor industry has not yet seen a cyclical peak. The firm noted that earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not been revised downward. Due to limited capacity expansion for memory chips, the supply tightness may persist until the second half of 2028. The current pullback appears more like a position adjustment rather than a reversal of industry fundamentals.

Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor Fundamentals Still Supported, Leveraged ETFs Amplify Tech Stock Volatility

On July 14, the United States will release June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. The market widely expects that, driven by falling gasoline prices, the overall June CPI may decline by 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate expected to drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%; core CPI is expected to rise by about 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year figure declining to around 2.8%. However, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that this cooling of inflation is more due to the decline in energy prices and does not mean that U.S. inflationary pressures have subsided. Housing, auto insurance, travel services, and the transmission of tariffs to commodity prices may still keep core inflation sticky. Meanwhile, the bond market is further betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Interest rate options show that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July has risen from less than 10% to about 50%, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield staying above 4.25%. Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if core inflation rises again, a rate hike in the short term should be considered. Institutions generally believe that even if the overall CPI declines due to drag from energy prices, the performance of core CPI and its subcomponent structure will still be key to determining whether U.S. inflation has truly peaked and the subsequent policy path of the Federal Reserve.

[Wall Street Warns of 'False Cooling' in Tonight's CPI, Bond Markets Bet on July Rate Hike]On July 14, the United States will release June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. The market widely expects that, driven by falling gasoline prices, the overall June CPI may decline by 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate expected to drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%; core CPI is expected to rise by about 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year figure declining to around 2.8%. However, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that this cooling of inflation is more due to the decline in energy prices and does not mean that U.S. inflationary pressures have subsided. Housing, auto insurance, travel services, and the transmission of tariffs to commodity prices may still keep core inflation sticky. Meanwhile, the bond market is further betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Interest rate options show that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July has risen from less than 10% to about 50%, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield staying above 4.25%. Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if core inflation rises again, a rate hike in the short term should be considered. Institutions generally believe that even if the overall CPI declines due to drag from energy prices, the performance of core CPI and its subcomponent structure will still be key to determining whether U.S. inflation has truly peaked and the subsequent policy path of the Federal Reserve.

Wall Street Warns of 'False Cooling' in Tonight's CPI, Bond Markets Bet on July Rate Hike

On July 14, the global tech sector experienced sharp volatility, with discussions of a 'cyclical peak' in the semiconductor industry becoming widespread. However, according to the latest research reports from major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Leuthold Group, this adjustment may not stem from a fundamental reversal but rather from a liquidity 'deleveraging' storm triggered by high-leverage trading. The irrational decline in the KOSPI index previously drew widespread attention. In a report titled 'KOSPI Tests Key Technical Support Levels,' Goldman Sachs stated that the recently introduced 'single-stock leveraged ETFs' are the core driver amplifying intraday volatility. Statistics show that several 2x leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at one point fell more than 30% in a single day. Such extreme fluctuations forced fund managers to sell the underlying stocks to maintain target leverage ratios. This forced liquidation triggered a vicious cycle of 'price decline—forced selling—further price decline,' forming a typical liquidity stampede. Goldman Sachs estimated that approximately 62% of net selling by South Korean institutional investors recently came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Similarly, the U.S. stock market also faces concerns of excessive leverage. Scott Opsal, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group, pointed out that the growth rate of margin debt in the U.S. has entered the 'red zone.' Data shows that in the 12 months ending in May, the growth rate of U.S. margin debt reached 54%, placing it in the 10th decile historically. Historically, such aggressive expansion in margin debt often coincided with market peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2021. This behavior of 'borrowing to buy stocks out of overconfidence' reflects a prevailing 'lottery mentality' in the market. Analysts noted that these leveraged funds are highly concentrated in the semiconductor and AI supply chains, making the market structure extremely fragile. Once sentiment reverses, the collective withdrawal of leveraged positions could lead to violent corrections in previously strong sectors.

[Goldman Sachs: Leveraged ETFs Amplify Market Volatility, Semiconductor Cycle Not Yet Peaked]On July 14, the global tech sector experienced sharp volatility, with discussions of a 'cyclical peak' in the semiconductor industry becoming widespread. However, according to the latest research reports from major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Leuthold Group, this adjustment may not stem from a fundamental reversal but rather from a liquidity 'deleveraging' storm triggered by high-leverage trading. The irrational decline in the KOSPI index previously drew widespread attention. In a report titled 'KOSPI Tests Key Technical Support Levels,' Goldman Sachs stated that the recently introduced 'single-stock leveraged ETFs' are the core driver amplifying intraday volatility. Statistics show that several 2x leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at one point fell more than 30% in a single day. Such extreme fluctuations forced fund managers to sell the underlying stocks to maintain target leverage ratios. This forced liquidation triggered a vicious cycle of 'price decline—forced selling—further price decline,' forming a typical liquidity stampede. Goldman Sachs estimated that approximately 62% of net selling by South Korean institutional investors recently came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Similarly, the U.S. stock market also faces concerns of excessive leverage. Scott Opsal, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group, pointed out that the growth rate of margin debt in the U.S. has entered the 'red zone.' Data shows that in the 12 months ending in May, the growth rate of U.S. margin debt reached 54%, placing it in the 10th decile historically. Historically, such aggressive expansion in margin debt often coincided with market peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2021. This behavior of 'borrowing to buy stocks out of overconfidence' reflects a prevailing 'lottery mentality' in the market. Analysts noted that these leveraged funds are highly concentrated in the semiconductor and AI supply chains, making the market structure extremely fragile. Once sentiment reverses, the collective withdrawal of leveraged positions could lead to violent corrections in previously strong sectors.

Goldman Sachs: Leveraged ETFs Amplify Market Volatility, Semiconductor Cycle Not Yet Peaked

According to Jin10, well-known journalist Nick Timiraos wrote that Fed officials are preparing to slow down rate hikes for the second consecutive meeting and debate terminal interest rates. They had previously grown more confident that inflation would ease further this year. In recent public speeches and interviews, Fed officials have said that slowing the pace of rate hikes to a more traditional 25 basis points would give them more time to assess the impact of raising rates so they can decide where to stop.

Detail

【Nick Timiraos: Fed officials may continue to slow rate hikes to 25 basis points】According to Jin10, well-known journalist Nick Timiraos wrote that Fed officials are preparing to slow down rate hikes for the second consecutive meeting and debate terminal interest rates. They had previously grown more confident that inflation would ease further this year. In recent public speeches and interviews, Fed officials have said that slowing the pace of rate hikes to a more traditional 25 basis points would give them more time to assess the impact of raising rates so they can decide where to stop.

Nick Timiraos: Fed officials may continue to slow rate hikes to 25 basis points

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Nick Timiraos: Fed officials may continue to slow rate hikes to 25 basis points

Disclaimer：Il contenuto di cui sopra non rappresenta le posizioni di HTX.，HTX non fornisce alcuna raccomandazione di trading.。

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