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a16z crypto published an analysis on the unique value and challenges faced by prediction markets. It pointed out that prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcomes of events, aggregating dispersed information through price signals to provide real-time estimates of future event probabilities. Unlike traditional polls, prediction markets have the capability to update in real-time and incentivize participants to stake their capital on their information, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Their core advantage lies in providing independent probability estimates for specific events rather than relying on indirect signals from overall asset price movements. However, they still face challenges related to infrastructure and market design, including event verification, contract settlement, participant information adequacy, and potential manipulation risks. If these issues are addressed, prediction markets are expected to become important tools for decision-making and information aggregation, enhancing financial and societal insights into future events.

[a16z Crypto: Key Challenges in Prediction Markets Including Event Verification and Market Manipulation]a16z crypto published an analysis on the unique value and challenges faced by prediction markets. It pointed out that prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcomes of events, aggregating dispersed information through price signals to provide real-time estimates of future event probabilities. Unlike traditional polls, prediction markets have the capability to update in real-time and incentivize participants to stake their capital on their information, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Their core advantage lies in providing independent probability estimates for specific events rather than relying on indirect signals from overall asset price movements. However, they still face challenges related to infrastructure and market design, including event verification, contract settlement, participant information adequacy, and potential manipulation risks. If these issues are addressed, prediction markets are expected to become important tools for decision-making and information aggregation, enhancing financial and societal insights into future events.

a16z Crypto: Key Challenges in Prediction Markets Including Event Verification and Market Manipulation

On May 30, Dan Loeb, founder of Third Point and manager of a $24 billion hedge fund, expressed strong optimism about AI, stating that the current AI boom is fundamentally different from the internet bubble era. Loeb pointed out that major tech companies have announced a total investment of over $700 billion in AI infrastructure this year, with projections exceeding $1 trillion next year. These companies are highly profitable and generating substantial cash flow, allowing most of their expenditures to be supported by their own funds. 'If you don't believe these capital expenditures will yield returns, it's like saying they are flushing money down the toilet, which is very different from the internet bubble—during that time, we shorted the bubble and achieved good returns over those years.' Loeb emphasized that he does not see a valuation bubble at present. He cited Anthropic as an example to support his optimistic view: its latest financing valuation has reached $965 billion, up from $380 billion in February, with annual revenue soaring from $14 billion to $47 billion in the same period. The adoption rate and practicality of its products are rapidly increasing, and the upcoming new model is highly anticipated. 'You can convincingly argue that we are just scratching the surface of the AI boom, and the application layer on the enterprise side is just getting started, so I stand with the optimists.' As of the end of March, Loeb's Third Point included significant holdings in Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Nvidia.

[Loeb Refutes Bubble Theory: Investing in AI is Not a Waste, We Are Just Scratching the Surface of the Boom]On May 30, Dan Loeb, founder of Third Point and manager of a $24 billion hedge fund, expressed strong optimism about AI, stating that the current AI boom is fundamentally different from the internet bubble era. Loeb pointed out that major tech companies have announced a total investment of over $700 billion in AI infrastructure this year, with projections exceeding $1 trillion next year. These companies are highly profitable and generating substantial cash flow, allowing most of their expenditures to be supported by their own funds. 'If you don't believe these capital expenditures will yield returns, it's like saying they are flushing money down the toilet, which is very different from the internet bubble—during that time, we shorted the bubble and achieved good returns over those years.' Loeb emphasized that he does not see a valuation bubble at present. He cited Anthropic as an example to support his optimistic view: its latest financing valuation has reached $965 billion, up from $380 billion in February, with annual revenue soaring from $14 billion to $47 billion in the same period. The adoption rate and practicality of its products are rapidly increasing, and the upcoming new model is highly anticipated. 'You can convincingly argue that we are just scratching the surface of the AI boom, and the application layer on the enterprise side is just getting started, so I stand with the optimists.' As of the end of March, Loeb's Third Point included significant holdings in Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Nvidia.

Loeb Refutes Bubble Theory: Investing in AI is Not a Waste, We Are Just Scratching the Surface of the Boom

On May 30, the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosed the filing report for the initial public offering and listing guidance of MiniMax Group Inc. (hereinafter referred to as 'MiniMax'), with CITIC Securities serving as its advisory institution. This indicates that MiniMax has officially started the guidance process for its A-share listing, aiming for a dual listing on both A and H shares.

[MiniMax Officially Launches A-Share Listing Guidance, Aiming for A+H Dual Listing]On May 30, the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosed the filing report for the initial public offering and listing guidance of MiniMax Group Inc. (hereinafter referred to as 'MiniMax'), with CITIC Securities serving as its advisory institution. This indicates that MiniMax has officially started the guidance process for its A-share listing, aiming for a dual listing on both A and H shares.

MiniMax Officially Launches A-Share Listing Guidance, Aiming for A+H Dual Listing

HTX data monitoring shows that BTC has surpassed 74000 USDT, currently reported at 74006.04 USDT, with a 24H increase of 1.85%.

【BTC breaks through 74000 USDT】HTX data monitoring shows that BTC has surpassed 74000 USDT, currently reported at 74006.04 USDT, with a 24H increase of 1.85%.

BTC breaks through 74000 USDT

On May 30, according to HTX market data, HYPE surpassed $68, reaching a new all-time high of $68.5, with a 24-hour increase of over 10.4% and more than 50% growth over the past two weeks. The current market capitalization is reported at $15.2 billion, ranking 11th in the cryptocurrency market capitalization leaderboard, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) rising to $65.4 billion. Additionally, two competing whales, 'Trader Loracle' and '0x082', recorded significant unrealized profits and losses, with 'Trader Loracle' holding a short position valued at $114 million, incurring an unrealized loss of $36.6 million; while '0x082' held a long position valued at $94 million, realizing an unrealized profit of $40.69 million.

[HYPE Surpasses $68, Hits New All-Time High with Over 50% Increase in Two Weeks]On May 30, according to HTX market data, HYPE surpassed $68, reaching a new all-time high of $68.5, with a 24-hour increase of over 10.4% and more than 50% growth over the past two weeks. The current market capitalization is reported at $15.2 billion, ranking 11th in the cryptocurrency market capitalization leaderboard, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) rising to $65.4 billion. Additionally, two competing whales, 'Trader Loracle' and '0x082', recorded significant unrealized profits and losses, with 'Trader Loracle' holding a short position valued at $114 million, incurring an unrealized loss of $36.6 million; while '0x082' held a long position valued at $94 million, realizing an unrealized profit of $40.69 million.

HYPE Surpasses $68, Hits New All-Time High with Over 50% Increase in Two Weeks

According to Coinglass data, a total of $266 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with $138 million in long positions and $128 million in short positions. Among these, Bitcoin long positions accounted for $40.0178 million, Bitcoin short positions for $36.097 million, Ethereum long positions for $32.8374 million, and Ethereum short positions for $23.3968 million.

[Over $266 Million Liquidated in the Last 24 Hours, $138 Million in Long Positions]According to Coinglass data, a total of $266 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with $138 million in long positions and $128 million in short positions. Among these, Bitcoin long positions accounted for $40.0178 million, Bitcoin short positions for $36.097 million, Ethereum long positions for $32.8374 million, and Ethereum short positions for $23.3968 million.

Over $266 Million Liquidated in the Last 24 Hours, $138 Million in Long Positions

On May 30, Bank of America Securities' latest report pointed out that the corporate earnings expectations behind the global stock market's record highs have diverged unusually from traditional macro fundamentals. The MSCI Global Index's 12-month forward EPS has risen by 9% over the past three months, annualizing nearly 40%, while the S&P 500's three-month EPS momentum has surged to 12%, reaching a 40-year high. However, the global PMI has continued to decline to about 50.5, a two-year low. More critically, about two-thirds of this round of earnings upgrades stem from an expansion in profit margin expectations, with the consensus profit margins for Europe and the global 12-month forward rising to historical peaks of 13.9% and 11.4%, respectively. Bank of America likens this unusual phenomenon to China's accession to the WTO in 2001—when over a billion workers integrated into the global economy weakened the bargaining power of workers in developed countries, pushing the share of after-tax corporate profits in GDP from 5%-8% to 10%-12%. Today, the market bets that the large-scale deployment of AI tools will similarly impact white-collar bargaining power, leading to a structural leap in corporate profit margins, even in the current context of lacking macro acceleration. In the report, Bank of America listed five major underestimated risks by the market: macroeconomic downturn, demand contraction triggered by AI substitution, the cost of using large model tokens has doubled since the beginning of the year, productivity improvements may take a decade rather than being realized immediately, and large-scale white-collar unemployment could trigger political backlash and pressure for windfall taxes. The market is currently pricing in an almost ideal scenario of 'no demand worries and record profit margins' too highly; if a macro downturn and widening risk premiums materialize, the current earnings-driven logic will face a dual test of downward adjustments in profit margin expectations and valuation compression.

[Bank of America: Market Hopes AI Adoption Mirrors China's WTO Entry, Boosting Global Corporate Profit Margins]On May 30, Bank of America Securities' latest report pointed out that the corporate earnings expectations behind the global stock market's record highs have diverged unusually from traditional macro fundamentals. The MSCI Global Index's 12-month forward EPS has risen by 9% over the past three months, annualizing nearly 40%, while the S&P 500's three-month EPS momentum has surged to 12%, reaching a 40-year high. However, the global PMI has continued to decline to about 50.5, a two-year low. More critically, about two-thirds of this round of earnings upgrades stem from an expansion in profit margin expectations, with the consensus profit margins for Europe and the global 12-month forward rising to historical peaks of 13.9% and 11.4%, respectively. Bank of America likens this unusual phenomenon to China's accession to the WTO in 2001—when over a billion workers integrated into the global economy weakened the bargaining power of workers in developed countries, pushing the share of after-tax corporate profits in GDP from 5%-8% to 10%-12%. Today, the market bets that the large-scale deployment of AI tools will similarly impact white-collar bargaining power, leading to a structural leap in corporate profit margins, even in the current context of lacking macro acceleration. In the report, Bank of America listed five major underestimated risks by the market: macroeconomic downturn, demand contraction triggered by AI substitution, the cost of using large model tokens has doubled since the beginning of the year, productivity improvements may take a decade rather than being realized immediately, and large-scale white-collar unemployment could trigger political backlash and pressure for windfall taxes. The market is currently pricing in an almost ideal scenario of 'no demand worries and record profit margins' too highly; if a macro downturn and widening risk premiums materialize, the current earnings-driven logic will face a dual test of downward adjustments in profit margin expectations and valuation compression.

Bank of America: Market Hopes AI Adoption Mirrors China's WTO Entry, Boosting Global Corporate Profit Margins

On May 30, Iranian media reported that a member of the Iranian Parliament's presiding board, Salimi, stated that Iran's plan to 'implement sovereign control' over the Strait of Hormuz is set to be approved by Parliament, with hopes of being passed as a permanent law. Only Iran and Oman will have the authority to decide on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already communicated with Oman, which has expressed preliminary agreement, and the relevant plan is expected to be finalized soon. Previously, on the 28th, Trump commented on the joint control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and Oman, stating that Oman 'will behave well' and rejected any such mechanism, saying, 'Otherwise, we will have to bomb them. No one can control the strait. The strait will be open to everyone,' and that the U.S. will 'closely monitor this issue.' Trump added, 'Oman will act like other countries, or we will have to bomb them. They understand this, so nothing will happen.'

[Ignoring Trump's Warning, Iran's Parliament to Approve 'Sovereign Control' Plan for the Strait of Hormuz]On May 30, Iranian media reported that a member of the Iranian Parliament's presiding board, Salimi, stated that Iran's plan to 'implement sovereign control' over the Strait of Hormuz is set to be approved by Parliament, with hopes of being passed as a permanent law. Only Iran and Oman will have the authority to decide on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already communicated with Oman, which has expressed preliminary agreement, and the relevant plan is expected to be finalized soon. Previously, on the 28th, Trump commented on the joint control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and Oman, stating that Oman 'will behave well' and rejected any such mechanism, saying, 'Otherwise, we will have to bomb them. No one can control the strait. The strait will be open to everyone,' and that the U.S. will 'closely monitor this issue.' Trump added, 'Oman will act like other countries, or we will have to bomb them. They understand this, so nothing will happen.'

Ignoring Trump's Warning, Iran's Parliament to Approve 'Sovereign Control' Plan for the Strait of Hormuz

On May 30, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, analyzed that the current AI bubble is primarily a profit bubble rather than a traditional valuation bubble. Unlike many previous stock market bubbles characterized by a rapid rise in price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, the valuations in the current AI-related sectors, especially semiconductors, are relatively reasonable, but the profit expectations are overly optimistic and unsustainable. Historically, similar situations occurred with real estate developers and banks before the 2008 financial crisis: they appeared to have low PE ratios but actually relied on unsustainable profit surges. Once profits fail to materialize, the bubble will burst. Peter pointed out that semiconductor sales have shown parabolic growth, and current AI demand indicators have not yet indicated an imminent bubble burst, but all bubbles eventually come to an end. Peter emphasized that investors should not overly rely on Wall Street analysts' profit forecasts, as stock prices typically decline significantly before profit expectations begin to be downgraded. In previous cycles, stock prices reached their peaks, and the forward 12-month EPS often began to decline several months later; waiting until EPS downgrades to sell could result in severe losses. The key to current investment is to monitor changes in AI demand indicators in advance.

[BCA Chief Discusses AI Frenzy Peak: Current Profit Bubble Rather Than Traditional Valuation Bubble, AI Demand Indicators Will Reflect Market Phase]On May 30, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, analyzed that the current AI bubble is primarily a profit bubble rather than a traditional valuation bubble. Unlike many previous stock market bubbles characterized by a rapid rise in price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, the valuations in the current AI-related sectors, especially semiconductors, are relatively reasonable, but the profit expectations are overly optimistic and unsustainable. Historically, similar situations occurred with real estate developers and banks before the 2008 financial crisis: they appeared to have low PE ratios but actually relied on unsustainable profit surges. Once profits fail to materialize, the bubble will burst. Peter pointed out that semiconductor sales have shown parabolic growth, and current AI demand indicators have not yet indicated an imminent bubble burst, but all bubbles eventually come to an end. Peter emphasized that investors should not overly rely on Wall Street analysts' profit forecasts, as stock prices typically decline significantly before profit expectations begin to be downgraded. In previous cycles, stock prices reached their peaks, and the forward 12-month EPS often began to decline several months later; waiting until EPS downgrades to sell could result in severe losses. The key to current investment is to monitor changes in AI demand indicators in advance.

BCA Chief Discusses AI Frenzy Peak: Current Profit Bubble Rather Than Traditional Valuation Bubble, AI Demand Indicators Will Reflect Market Phase

Do Kwon tweeted: "A third party audit of LFG and TFL's peg defense activity during May 2022 has been published. Many of you lost a lot of money in UST - for this I am sorry. While the system was transparent and open source, I should have understood and communicated its risks better."

Detail

【Do Kwon: I should have understood and communicated UST's risks better.】Do Kwon tweeted: "A third party audit of LFG and TFL's peg defense activity during May 2022 has been published. Many of you lost a lot of money in UST - for this I am sorry. While the system was transparent and open source, I should have understood and communicated its risks better."

Do Kwon: I should have understood and communicated UST's risks better.

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Do Kwon: I should have understood and communicated UST's risks better.

Disclaimer：Il contenuto di cui sopra non rappresenta le posizioni di HTX.，HTX non fornisce alcuna raccomandazione di trading.。

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