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On May 26, Wintermute stated that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil dropping 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.50%, and U.S. stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week to reach an all-time high, alleviating energy-driven inflation pressures. However, consumer concerns have not dissipated, as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI for May reached a four-year high, with input costs rising to their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in commodity inflation. The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting also signaled that 'if inflation remains stubborn, further tightening of policy may occur,' suggesting that the market has not fully priced in hawkish expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia reported explosive earnings: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, an 85% year-on-year increase, with data center business growth of 92%, and announced a $80 billion buyback along with a 25-fold increase in dividends. More critically, its Q2 guidance has already assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, indicating stronger actual AI demand. However, the market's reaction was unusually tepid, with after-hours stock prices barely moving, reflecting that AI trading has entered a 'perfect pricing' phase, where merely exceeding expectations is no longer sufficient to drive the market. This serves as an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumer sentiment, persistent inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve will likely dominate market narratives. Compared to the strength of U.S. stocks, the crypto market has clearly lagged behind. BTC is hovering around $76,000, while ETH has dropped to $2,140, neither following the rise of risk assets. Over the past two weeks, more than $2 billion has flowed out of BTC spot ETFs, indicating a significant cooling of institutional funds, with marginal risk appetite shifting back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, reaching a 10-month low, while the few assets that have shown strength against the trend are HYPE, which recorded a single-day ETF inflow of $25.5 million and showed signs of large institutional wallets accumulating. The current market structure has not fully deteriorated; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and trading platform reserves remain low, but the short-term capital flow determining prices is turning negative. The key support level for BTC is currently between $75,000 and $76,000; if this level is breached, the market could quickly retrace to the $70,000 to $72,000 range; if it holds, there remains a chance to challenge $80,000 again.

[Wintermute: Key Bitcoin Support at $75,000-$76,000, Market Structure Not Fully Deteriorated]On May 26, Wintermute stated that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil dropping 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.50%, and U.S. stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week to reach an all-time high, alleviating energy-driven inflation pressures. However, consumer concerns have not dissipated, as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI for May reached a four-year high, with input costs rising to their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in commodity inflation. The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting also signaled that 'if inflation remains stubborn, further tightening of policy may occur,' suggesting that the market has not fully priced in hawkish expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia reported explosive earnings: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, an 85% year-on-year increase, with data center business growth of 92%, and announced a $80 billion buyback along with a 25-fold increase in dividends. More critically, its Q2 guidance has already assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, indicating stronger actual AI demand. However, the market's reaction was unusually tepid, with after-hours stock prices barely moving, reflecting that AI trading has entered a 'perfect pricing' phase, where merely exceeding expectations is no longer sufficient to drive the market. This serves as an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumer sentiment, persistent inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve will likely dominate market narratives. Compared to the strength of U.S. stocks, the crypto market has clearly lagged behind. BTC is hovering around $76,000, while ETH has dropped to $2,140, neither following the rise of risk assets. Over the past two weeks, more than $2 billion has flowed out of BTC spot ETFs, indicating a significant cooling of institutional funds, with marginal risk appetite shifting back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, reaching a 10-month low, while the few assets that have shown strength against the trend are HYPE, which recorded a single-day ETF inflow of $25.5 million and showed signs of large institutional wallets accumulating. The current market structure has not fully deteriorated; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and trading platform reserves remain low, but the short-term capital flow determining prices is turning negative. The key support level for BTC is currently between $75,000 and $76,000; if this level is breached, the market could quickly retrace to the $70,000 to $72,000 range; if it holds, there remains a chance to challenge $80,000 again.

Wintermute: Key Bitcoin Support at $75,000-$76,000, Market Structure Not Fully Deteriorated

On May 26, analysts from J.P. Morgan stated that the market is currently overestimating the risks of potential interest rate hikes by central banks, creating conditions for a rebound in the least volatile stocks, such as consumer staples and utilities. Despite investors' concerns that energy price shocks from the Iran conflict could trigger another wave of rate hikes similar to the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the J.P. Morgan team, led by Mislav Matejka, pointed out significant differences in the current macro environment compared to that time. In a research report, the strategists noted that, given that all parties involved in the conflict are ultimately committed to seeking an 'exit strategy,' they expect bond yields and oil prices to trend downward over the next 6 to 12 months. Additionally, they predict that corporate earnings prospects will remain strong and believe that stagflation is not the most likely macro scenario for the second half of the year. (Jin Shi)

[J.P. Morgan Strategist: U.S. Stock Market Overestimates Rate Hike Risks]On May 26, analysts from J.P. Morgan stated that the market is currently overestimating the risks of potential interest rate hikes by central banks, creating conditions for a rebound in the least volatile stocks, such as consumer staples and utilities. Despite investors' concerns that energy price shocks from the Iran conflict could trigger another wave of rate hikes similar to the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the J.P. Morgan team, led by Mislav Matejka, pointed out significant differences in the current macro environment compared to that time. In a research report, the strategists noted that, given that all parties involved in the conflict are ultimately committed to seeking an 'exit strategy,' they expect bond yields and oil prices to trend downward over the next 6 to 12 months. Additionally, they predict that corporate earnings prospects will remain strong and believe that stagflation is not the most likely macro scenario for the second half of the year. (Jin Shi)

J.P. Morgan Strategist: U.S. Stock Market Overestimates Rate Hike Risks

On May 26, according to official news from XBIT, the XBIT DEX prediction platform has officially opened the application channel for the prediction leverage whitelist. Users who meet the requirements after signing up will unlock their eligibility, with limited spots available on a first-come, first-served basis. The prediction leverage feature is expected to be officially available to the entire platform by June 11. Concurrently, XBIT has launched a whitelist trading event (from May 26 to June 10) with a total prize pool of 30,000 USDC. Users can share in the rewards through trading, inviting friends, and leaderboard rankings.

[XBIT DEX Opens Whitelist Applications for Prediction Leverage, 30,000 USDC Trading Event Launched]On May 26, according to official news from XBIT, the XBIT DEX prediction platform has officially opened the application channel for the prediction leverage whitelist. Users who meet the requirements after signing up will unlock their eligibility, with limited spots available on a first-come, first-served basis. The prediction leverage feature is expected to be officially available to the entire platform by June 11. Concurrently, XBIT has launched a whitelist trading event (from May 26 to June 10) with a total prize pool of 30,000 USDC. Users can share in the rewards through trading, inviting friends, and leaderboard rankings.

XBIT DEX Opens Whitelist Applications for Prediction Leverage, 30,000 USDC Trading Event Launched

On May 26, quantum computing company Quantinuum Inc. is seeking to raise $1.05 billion through its initial public offering (IPO) in the United States. According to documents submitted by the company to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday, Quantinuum plans to issue approximately 21 million shares at a price range of $45 to $50 per share. Based on the upper limit of the offering range and the number of shares disclosed in the filing, Quantinuum's market capitalization would reach approximately $12.7 billion.

[Quantum Computing Company Quantinuum Seeks $1.05 Billion Through IPO]On May 26, quantum computing company Quantinuum Inc. is seeking to raise $1.05 billion through its initial public offering (IPO) in the United States. According to documents submitted by the company to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday, Quantinuum plans to issue approximately 21 million shares at a price range of $45 to $50 per share. Based on the upper limit of the offering range and the number of shares disclosed in the filing, Quantinuum's market capitalization would reach approximately $12.7 billion.

Quantum Computing Company Quantinuum Seeks $1.05 Billion Through IPO

Chris Olah, co-founder of Anthropic, stated at the Vatican on May 25 during the release of Pope Leo XIV's first AI-themed encyclical "Magnifica Humanitas" that there are three core risks of the AI era that must be taken seriously: First, artificial intelligence may massively replace human labor, and how to assist the unemployed and ensure that the benefits of AI reach vulnerable global populations remains an unresolved issue; second, with the widespread adoption of large models, how humanity, families, children, and future professions can achieve true prosperity is no longer just a technical problem; finally, AI models are exhibiting phenomena similar to human neural structures, self-reflection, and emotional states, and these unknown and unsettling discoveries warrant ongoing societal discussion.

[Catholic Church Releases First AI Encyclical, Anthropic Co-Founder Warns of Three Major Risks]Chris Olah, co-founder of Anthropic, stated at the Vatican on May 25 during the release of Pope Leo XIV's first AI-themed encyclical "Magnifica Humanitas" that there are three core risks of the AI era that must be taken seriously: First, artificial intelligence may massively replace human labor, and how to assist the unemployed and ensure that the benefits of AI reach vulnerable global populations remains an unresolved issue; second, with the widespread adoption of large models, how humanity, families, children, and future professions can achieve true prosperity is no longer just a technical problem; finally, AI models are exhibiting phenomena similar to human neural structures, self-reflection, and emotional states, and these unknown and unsettling discoveries warrant ongoing societal discussion.

Catholic Church Releases First AI Encyclical, Anthropic Co-Founder Warns of Three Major Risks

On May 26, the rulings on controversial contracts on Polymarket are being dominated by a small number of UMA holders. Statistics show that among over 6,400 addresses that participated in Polymarket's dispute resolution voting over the past three years, only 9 whale addresses contributed about half of the UMA voting power and have sided with the winning side in nearly all disputes. As of April 2026, around 230 contracts with a total trading volume exceeding $1 billion entered the dispute resolution process, accounting for less than 1% of all contracts on Polymarket, but the frequency of disputes increases with trading volume. Some traders criticize that this mechanism effectively grants anonymous whales a fact-based decision-making power driven by economic interests, while Polymarket and Risk Labs, responsible for UMA, had originally promised to improve the related processes, which has now been shelved.

[Polymarket Controversial Contract Decisions Dominated by a Few Whales, 9 Addresses Contribute About Half of UMA Voting Power]On May 26, the rulings on controversial contracts on Polymarket are being dominated by a small number of UMA holders. Statistics show that among over 6,400 addresses that participated in Polymarket's dispute resolution voting over the past three years, only 9 whale addresses contributed about half of the UMA voting power and have sided with the winning side in nearly all disputes. As of April 2026, around 230 contracts with a total trading volume exceeding $1 billion entered the dispute resolution process, accounting for less than 1% of all contracts on Polymarket, but the frequency of disputes increases with trading volume. Some traders criticize that this mechanism effectively grants anonymous whales a fact-based decision-making power driven by economic interests, while Polymarket and Risk Labs, responsible for UMA, had originally promised to improve the related processes, which has now been shelved.

Polymarket Controversial Contract Decisions Dominated by a Few Whales, 9 Addresses Contribute About Half of UMA Voting Power

On May 26, analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin's spot trading volume has plummeted by 81% since October 2025, returning to the low levels seen during the July 2023 bear market. The macro environment remains unfavorable for risk assets: rising inflation pressures and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have led investors to shift towards commodities and traditional stock markets rather than the crypto market, significantly reducing overall market participation. Despite the substantial contraction in spot volume, the sluggish trading activity may indicate that the selling pressure behind the current price pullback is gradually weakening. Historically, similar spot volume collapses have occurred before the end of bear markets in 2023, followed by a return of volatility and the onset of a bull market rebound. Investors should patiently await a future recovery in spot demand and an increase in leverage demand, while also paying attention to macro signals and changes in trading volume to assess whether this is a brewing phase for new opportunities.

[Analysis: BTC Spot Trading Volume Drops to July 2023 Bear Market Levels, Selling Pressure Gradually Weakens]On May 26, analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin's spot trading volume has plummeted by 81% since October 2025, returning to the low levels seen during the July 2023 bear market. The macro environment remains unfavorable for risk assets: rising inflation pressures and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have led investors to shift towards commodities and traditional stock markets rather than the crypto market, significantly reducing overall market participation. Despite the substantial contraction in spot volume, the sluggish trading activity may indicate that the selling pressure behind the current price pullback is gradually weakening. Historically, similar spot volume collapses have occurred before the end of bear markets in 2023, followed by a return of volatility and the onset of a bull market rebound. Investors should patiently await a future recovery in spot demand and an increase in leverage demand, while also paying attention to macro signals and changes in trading volume to assess whether this is a brewing phase for new opportunities.

Analysis: BTC Spot Trading Volume Drops to July 2023 Bear Market Levels, Selling Pressure Gradually Weakens

On May 26, Reuters reported that the European Union plans to impose a fine on Google amounting to nearly €1 billion, which would be the largest penalty issued under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The announcement is expected to be made before the summer break. The investigation officially began in March 2025, with the main allegation being that Google prioritized its own services in search results, violating relevant DMA regulations. The European Commission stated that its primary goal is to ensure Google's compliance rather than solely pursuing fines, but emphasized that it will not hesitate in advancing subsequent steps. Google criticized the DMA regulations for causing the largest downgrade to its search products in history and expressed a desire to resolve the dispute quickly.

[EU Plans to Fine Google Nearly €1 Billion]On May 26, Reuters reported that the European Union plans to impose a fine on Google amounting to nearly €1 billion, which would be the largest penalty issued under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The announcement is expected to be made before the summer break. The investigation officially began in March 2025, with the main allegation being that Google prioritized its own services in search results, violating relevant DMA regulations. The European Commission stated that its primary goal is to ensure Google's compliance rather than solely pursuing fines, but emphasized that it will not hesitate in advancing subsequent steps. Google criticized the DMA regulations for causing the largest downgrade to its search products in history and expressed a desire to resolve the dispute quickly.

EU Plans to Fine Google Nearly €1 Billion

zest Surges 20.80% in 24H, Currently at 0.192183 USDT

【zest currently trades at 0.192183 USDT, up 20.80% in 24h, according to HTX market data.】zest Surges 20.80% in 24H, Currently at 0.192183 USDT

zest currently trades at 0.192183 USDT, up 20.80% in 24h, according to HTX market data.

EthHub co-founder sassal.eth tweeted: "Sepolia is merging soon."

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【EthHub co-founder: Sepolia is merging soon】EthHub co-founder sassal.eth tweeted: "Sepolia is merging soon."

EthHub co-founder: Sepolia is merging soon

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bill soared to 0.124024 USDT, a new high with a 24-hour increase of -6.17%. It currently trades at 0.102651 USDT on HTX.

EthHub co-founder: Sepolia is merging soon

Disclaimer：Il contenuto di cui sopra non rappresenta le posizioni di HTX.，HTX non fornisce alcuna raccomandazione di trading.。

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