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On July 27, Multicoin Capital and the Hyperliquid Policy Center jointly issued a statement supporting the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposal on a predictive market framework, offering three comments: clear rules are better than speculation, prediction markets should be overseen by a single federal regulator, and the CFTC should consider improvements to make robust rules more targeted and increase transparency. Former Multicoin Capital partner Kyle Samani commented on this, stating, 'If you are developing in the Solana ecosystem, you should understand that Multicoin will hinder everything you do.'

[Ex-Multicoin Partner Kyle Samani: Multicoin's Support for CFTC Prediction Market Framework Hinders Solana]On July 27, Multicoin Capital and the Hyperliquid Policy Center jointly issued a statement supporting the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposal on a predictive market framework, offering three comments: clear rules are better than speculation, prediction markets should be overseen by a single federal regulator, and the CFTC should consider improvements to make robust rules more targeted and increase transparency. Former Multicoin Capital partner Kyle Samani commented on this, stating, 'If you are developing in the Solana ecosystem, you should understand that Multicoin will hinder everything you do.'

Ex-Multicoin Partner Kyle Samani: Multicoin's Support for CFTC Prediction Market Framework Hinders Solana

NASDAQ futures fell 1.1% to hit a daily low, while S&P 500 index futures declined nearly 0.4%.

[NASDAQ Futures Drop 1.1% to Hit Daily Low]NASDAQ futures fell 1.1% to hit a daily low, while S&P 500 index futures declined nearly 0.4%.

NASDAQ Futures Drop 1.1% to Hit Daily Low

On July 28, Brendan Murphy, Head of North American Fixed Income at Insight Investment, said in a report that investors may consider increasing their duration allocation to the front end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Murphy stated that the asset manager expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period, and the next ultimate rate adjustment could actually be a rate cut. He said: 'Therefore, now may be a good time to consider fixed income allocations, including increasing duration exposure at the front end of the curve.' However, a prolonged conflict with Iran would increase market uncertainty, and dissenting votes supporting a rate hike may also appear at the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Murphy said the Fed has consistently believed that ignoring the impact of energy price shocks is the best strategy, unless a 'second-round effect' emerges and becomes entrenched, or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored. (Jinshi)

[Institution: Investors May Consider Increasing Short-Duration Exposure in U.S. Treasuries]On July 28, Brendan Murphy, Head of North American Fixed Income at Insight Investment, said in a report that investors may consider increasing their duration allocation to the front end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Murphy stated that the asset manager expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period, and the next ultimate rate adjustment could actually be a rate cut. He said: 'Therefore, now may be a good time to consider fixed income allocations, including increasing duration exposure at the front end of the curve.' However, a prolonged conflict with Iran would increase market uncertainty, and dissenting votes supporting a rate hike may also appear at the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Murphy said the Fed has consistently believed that ignoring the impact of energy price shocks is the best strategy, unless a 'second-round effect' emerges and becomes entrenched, or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored. (Jinshi)

Institution: Investors May Consider Increasing Short-Duration Exposure in U.S. Treasuries

In a report on July 28, Anthony Willis, senior economist at Tianli Investment, said that as U.S. inflation remains significantly above target and the economy and labor market remain resilient, pressure on Fed policymakers to tighten policy has increased. Willis said: 'However, policymakers may be willing to temporarily ignore the impact of the recent surge in oil prices until the effects on inflation become clearer.' Nevertheless, the broader direction is obvious: under the leadership of Warsh, the Fed is adopting a more hawkish stance. The market currently sees a 38% probability of a rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday, and has fully priced in the possibility of a rate hike in September.

[Institution: Fed Under Growing Pressure to Raise Rates]In a report on July 28, Anthony Willis, senior economist at Tianli Investment, said that as U.S. inflation remains significantly above target and the economy and labor market remain resilient, pressure on Fed policymakers to tighten policy has increased. Willis said: 'However, policymakers may be willing to temporarily ignore the impact of the recent surge in oil prices until the effects on inflation become clearer.' Nevertheless, the broader direction is obvious: under the leadership of Warsh, the Fed is adopting a more hawkish stance. The market currently sees a 38% probability of a rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday, and has fully priced in the possibility of a rate hike in September.

Institution: Fed Under Growing Pressure to Raise Rates

On July 28, Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy at Natixis Investment Management, said in a report that Fed Chair Wash is unlikely to challenge the current consensus at his second monetary policy committee meeting. Chetouane stated that Wash will not succumb to the temptation of a 25-basis-point rate hike, even though at this stage, it is almost impossible to bring inflation back to target by year-end. Additionally, Wash does not want to risk disrupting the slow but steady improvement in the labor market—a trend that has persisted for several weeks—by tightening monetary conditions. Analysts widely expect the Fed to hold steady on Wednesday, but money markets reflect a 38% probability of a rate hike. (Jin Shi)

[Analyst: Fed Chair Wash Unlikely to Challenge Consensus]On July 28, Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy at Natixis Investment Management, said in a report that Fed Chair Wash is unlikely to challenge the current consensus at his second monetary policy committee meeting. Chetouane stated that Wash will not succumb to the temptation of a 25-basis-point rate hike, even though at this stage, it is almost impossible to bring inflation back to target by year-end. Additionally, Wash does not want to risk disrupting the slow but steady improvement in the labor market—a trend that has persisted for several weeks—by tightening monetary conditions. Analysts widely expect the Fed to hold steady on Wednesday, but money markets reflect a 38% probability of a rate hike. (Jin Shi)

Analyst: Fed Chair Wash Unlikely to Challenge Consensus

Spot silver has fallen below $57 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 2.41%.

[Spot Silver Falls Below $57/oz, Down 2.41% Intraday]Spot silver has fallen below $57 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 2.41%.

Spot Silver Falls Below $57/oz, Down 2.41% Intraday

On July 28, according to Globe Newswire, Singapore-based digital asset investment management firm Psalion has launched its third venture fund, with a size of $50 million. This is the firm's largest fund to date, focusing on blockchain technology applications. The fund will invest in seed-stage and pre-seed companies in the areas of infrastructure, middleware, trade finance, RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi, with a focus on Web3 consumer applications in asset ownership, trading, and interaction. Psalion managing partner Tim Enneking said that the first two funds were both launched during market downturns and believes that "the best opportunities often appear in down markets — valuations are more reasonable, and founders are more focused."

[Psalion Launches Third Venture Fund of $50 Million, Focusing on Blockchain Technology Applications]On July 28, according to Globe Newswire, Singapore-based digital asset investment management firm Psalion has launched its third venture fund, with a size of $50 million. This is the firm's largest fund to date, focusing on blockchain technology applications. The fund will invest in seed-stage and pre-seed companies in the areas of infrastructure, middleware, trade finance, RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi, with a focus on Web3 consumer applications in asset ownership, trading, and interaction. Psalion managing partner Tim Enneking said that the first two funds were both launched during market downturns and believes that "the best opportunities often appear in down markets — valuations are more reasonable, and founders are more focused."

Psalion Launches Third Venture Fund of $50 Million, Focusing on Blockchain Technology Applications

On July 28, a series of major bearish news related to global semiconductor trading emerged overnight, placing pressure on the U.S. semiconductor sector. Nvidia fell about 5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.23%, and the Nasdaq closed slightly lower. As Asian trading began, AI hardware assets in South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong continued to decline. South Korea's KOSPI index fell over 10% intraday, triggering circuit breakers twice, with heavyweight stocks SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunging sharply. In Hong Kong, leveraged products saw amplified losses, with the CSOP 2x SK Hynix ETF and CSOP 2x Samsung Electronics ETF both dropping over 20%. Four factors drove this selloff: first, concerns over China's semiconductor localization progress; second, Nvidia-related AI infrastructure deals rekindled doubts about circular financing; third, the semiconductor sector's prior gains led to concentrated profit-taking at highs; fourth, the open-source release of Kimi K3 reignited market skepticism about high spending by U.S. and South Korean giants. According to The Information, a Chinese state-backed company has begun mass production of self-developed immersion DUV lithography equipment, planning to produce about 5 units in 2026 and expand to about 20 units by 2027. While this scale lags behind ASML's 131 immersion DUV systems delivered last year, the mass production of domestic DUV equipment is seen as a key breakthrough for China's chip supply chain self-sufficiency. ASML fell 5.80% on Monday, and U.S. memory and equipment stocks weakened, with SanDisk down 11.02% and Western Digital down 4.21%. However, many institutions view the market reaction as excessive. JPMorgan noted that China's domestic immersion DUV equipment is still in small-scale production, with performance, reliability, and mass production capabilities yet to be verified, far from replacing ASML equipment. Samsung Securities also believes that Chinese AI chips and server DRAM will find it difficult to enter U.S. data center ecosystems in the short term, limiting the actual impact on the current AI semiconductor cycle. Citrini analyst Jukan said the report disclosed limited incremental data, making the selloff in ASML and other semiconductor equipment stocks an overreaction. Another pressure point came from China's memory industry. Changxin Technology surged 466% on its first trading day, becoming China's largest A-share listed company by market cap, which the market interpreted as a potential acceleration of China's memory self-sufficiency. For global memory leaders like SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, SanDisk, and Western Digital, a better-capitalized Chinese competitor implies potential changes in the long-term supply landscape, rekindling bearish narratives in today's trading. Meanwhile, credit risk concerns from Nvidia's $750 billion AI infrastructure cooperation are spilling over from bond markets to stock markets. Bloomberg reported that Nvidia is reportedly discussing providing up to $250 billion in guarantees to help OpenAI lease computing power from U.S. data center projects. The company also disclosed cooperation with SK Group, parent of SK Hynix, involving over $500 billion. ICE Data Services data showed Nvidia's 5-year CDS rose about 14 basis points to around 82 basis points annually, the largest intraday spike since active trading of the contract. CDS can be understood as "debt default insurance." Rising CDS prices typically indicate market perceptions of increased debt risk or potential repayment pressure. For Nvidia, credit markets are reassessing the balance sheet pressure from its large-scale guarantees, customer financing, and AI infrastructure partnerships. Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management, said Nvidia's rising credit risk is seen as a negative signal by investors. Pressure is also building on the AI model front. Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 released its model weights on July 27, widely viewed by the market as another significant progress in China's open-source AI models. Public data shows Kimi K3 has 2.8 trillion parameters, supporting long context, multimodal, and agent capabilities, focusing on near-frontier model performance at lower cost. Following DeepSeek, China's high-performance open-source models have again entered global investors' view, prompting a reevaluation of the valuation foundations of U.S. closed-source models, cloud providers, and AI hardware chains. For U.S. stocks, the pressure from Kimi stems not directly from the model itself but from the reinforcement of the "low-cost, high-performance AI" narrative. If improved model capabilities no longer solely rely on larger GPU clusters and higher capital expenditure, investors will naturally question whether the marginal returns of data centers for Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and others will decline, and whether the high valuations enjoyed by Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, memory, and equipment chains can be sustained. In other words, the open-source Kimi deepens market concerns about AI capital expenditure efficiency, forcing a repricing of the "ever-increasing computing power" trade logic. Crucially, the market's focus on AI trading has shifted. Previously, tech stock gains were driven by "high growth in computing demand." Now, with Kimi's low-cost open-source models, Nvidia's customer financing arrangements, and massive data center capital expenditures all appearing simultaneously, investors are questioning whether AI investments can generate sufficient cash flow and how much customer procurement depends on supplier financing support. Macroeconomic pressures are also mounting. This week, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions, with rising market concerns about a simultaneous hawkish stance. The Fed's meeting from July 28-29 will decide the federal funds rate, currently at 3.50%-3.75%. While most traders expect no change, the market has priced in about a one-third probability of a surprise rate hike. Goldman Sachs said the outcome of this Fed meeting is "unusually uncertain." With AI capital expenditure, oil prices, and tariffs potentially fueling inflation, a stronger hawkish signal from the Fed could amplify valuation pressure on high-price tech and semiconductor stocks. For the BOJ, the July 30-31 meeting is expected to keep the policy rate at 1.00%, but the market is more focused on whether it signals future rate hikes. Reuters reported that the BOJ may hold steady this week while retaining room for further hikes to address the weak yen, energy prices, and inflation expectations. The BOJ raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.00% in June, the highest since 1995. If the BOJ remains hawkish, the stability of yen carry trades will be tested, potentially adding deleveraging pressure on global risk assets.

[Four Bearish Factors Trigger Semiconductor Selloff: Central Bank Decisions Loom, Nvidia CDS Surges, China's Dual Breakthroughs]On July 28, a series of major bearish news related to global semiconductor trading emerged overnight, placing pressure on the U.S. semiconductor sector. Nvidia fell about 5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.23%, and the Nasdaq closed slightly lower. As Asian trading began, AI hardware assets in South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong continued to decline. South Korea's KOSPI index fell over 10% intraday, triggering circuit breakers twice, with heavyweight stocks SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunging sharply. In Hong Kong, leveraged products saw amplified losses, with the CSOP 2x SK Hynix ETF and CSOP 2x Samsung Electronics ETF both dropping over 20%. Four factors drove this selloff: first, concerns over China's semiconductor localization progress; second, Nvidia-related AI infrastructure deals rekindled doubts about circular financing; third, the semiconductor sector's prior gains led to concentrated profit-taking at highs; fourth, the open-source release of Kimi K3 reignited market skepticism about high spending by U.S. and South Korean giants. According to The Information, a Chinese state-backed company has begun mass production of self-developed immersion DUV lithography equipment, planning to produce about 5 units in 2026 and expand to about 20 units by 2027. While this scale lags behind ASML's 131 immersion DUV systems delivered last year, the mass production of domestic DUV equipment is seen as a key breakthrough for China's chip supply chain self-sufficiency. ASML fell 5.80% on Monday, and U.S. memory and equipment stocks weakened, with SanDisk down 11.02% and Western Digital down 4.21%. However, many institutions view the market reaction as excessive. JPMorgan noted that China's domestic immersion DUV equipment is still in small-scale production, with performance, reliability, and mass production capabilities yet to be verified, far from replacing ASML equipment. Samsung Securities also believes that Chinese AI chips and server DRAM will find it difficult to enter U.S. data center ecosystems in the short term, limiting the actual impact on the current AI semiconductor cycle. Citrini analyst Jukan said the report disclosed limited incremental data, making the selloff in ASML and other semiconductor equipment stocks an overreaction. Another pressure point came from China's memory industry. Changxin Technology surged 466% on its first trading day, becoming China's largest A-share listed company by market cap, which the market interpreted as a potential acceleration of China's memory self-sufficiency. For global memory leaders like SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, SanDisk, and Western Digital, a better-capitalized Chinese competitor implies potential changes in the long-term supply landscape, rekindling bearish narratives in today's trading. Meanwhile, credit risk concerns from Nvidia's $750 billion AI infrastructure cooperation are spilling over from bond markets to stock markets. Bloomberg reported that Nvidia is reportedly discussing providing up to $250 billion in guarantees to help OpenAI lease computing power from U.S. data center projects. The company also disclosed cooperation with SK Group, parent of SK Hynix, involving over $500 billion. ICE Data Services data showed Nvidia's 5-year CDS rose about 14 basis points to around 82 basis points annually, the largest intraday spike since active trading of the contract. CDS can be understood as "debt default insurance." Rising CDS prices typically indicate market perceptions of increased debt risk or potential repayment pressure. For Nvidia, credit markets are reassessing the balance sheet pressure from its large-scale guarantees, customer financing, and AI infrastructure partnerships. Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management, said Nvidia's rising credit risk is seen as a negative signal by investors. Pressure is also building on the AI model front. Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 released its model weights on July 27, widely viewed by the market as another significant progress in China's open-source AI models. Public data shows Kimi K3 has 2.8 trillion parameters, supporting long context, multimodal, and agent capabilities, focusing on near-frontier model performance at lower cost. Following DeepSeek, China's high-performance open-source models have again entered global investors' view, prompting a reevaluation of the valuation foundations of U.S. closed-source models, cloud providers, and AI hardware chains. For U.S. stocks, the pressure from Kimi stems not directly from the model itself but from the reinforcement of the "low-cost, high-performance AI" narrative. If improved model capabilities no longer solely rely on larger GPU clusters and higher capital expenditure, investors will naturally question whether the marginal returns of data centers for Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and others will decline, and whether the high valuations enjoyed by Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, memory, and equipment chains can be sustained. In other words, the open-source Kimi deepens market concerns about AI capital expenditure efficiency, forcing a repricing of the "ever-increasing computing power" trade logic. Crucially, the market's focus on AI trading has shifted. Previously, tech stock gains were driven by "high growth in computing demand." Now, with Kimi's low-cost open-source models, Nvidia's customer financing arrangements, and massive data center capital expenditures all appearing simultaneously, investors are questioning whether AI investments can generate sufficient cash flow and how much customer procurement depends on supplier financing support. Macroeconomic pressures are also mounting. This week, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions, with rising market concerns about a simultaneous hawkish stance. The Fed's meeting from July 28-29 will decide the federal funds rate, currently at 3.50%-3.75%. While most traders expect no change, the market has priced in about a one-third probability of a surprise rate hike. Goldman Sachs said the outcome of this Fed meeting is "unusually uncertain." With AI capital expenditure, oil prices, and tariffs potentially fueling inflation, a stronger hawkish signal from the Fed could amplify valuation pressure on high-price tech and semiconductor stocks. For the BOJ, the July 30-31 meeting is expected to keep the policy rate at 1.00%, but the market is more focused on whether it signals future rate hikes. Reuters reported that the BOJ may hold steady this week while retaining room for further hikes to address the weak yen, energy prices, and inflation expectations. The BOJ raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.00% in June, the highest since 1995. If the BOJ remains hawkish, the stability of yen carry trades will be tested, potentially adding deleveraging pressure on global risk assets.

Four Bearish Factors Trigger Semiconductor Selloff: Central Bank Decisions Loom, Nvidia CDS Surges, China's Dual Breakthroughs

July 28, according to South Korea's Seoul Economic Daily, as the Korean stock market continues to underperform, domestic investors are once again turning to US stocks, with net buying volume exceeding 5 trillion won this month. According to data from the securities information portal Seibro operated by the Korea Securities Depository, from July 1 to July 27, domestic investors' net buying of US stocks totaled $35.8999 billion, approximately 5.5 times the net buying volume for the entire month of June. As of July 23, the net buying amount was only $25.3026 billion, but it increased by $10.5973 billion over the following two trading days. Retail funds are primarily concentrated in the semiconductor and technology sectors. The product with the highest net buying this month was the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF, which tracks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, with a net buying amount reaching $17.5919 billion. SK Hynix ADR also continued to be popular, with net buying rising to $812.38 million as of July 27.

[Sluggish Korean Stock Market Drives Retail Investors to US Stocks, Net Buying Exceeds 5 Trillion Won This Month]July 28, according to South Korea's Seoul Economic Daily, as the Korean stock market continues to underperform, domestic investors are once again turning to US stocks, with net buying volume exceeding 5 trillion won this month. According to data from the securities information portal Seibro operated by the Korea Securities Depository, from July 1 to July 27, domestic investors' net buying of US stocks totaled $35.8999 billion, approximately 5.5 times the net buying volume for the entire month of June. As of July 23, the net buying amount was only $25.3026 billion, but it increased by $10.5973 billion over the following two trading days. Retail funds are primarily concentrated in the semiconductor and technology sectors. The product with the highest net buying this month was the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF, which tracks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, with a net buying amount reaching $17.5919 billion. SK Hynix ADR also continued to be popular, with net buying rising to $812.38 million as of July 27.

Sluggish Korean Stock Market Drives Retail Investors to US Stocks, Net Buying Exceeds 5 Trillion Won This Month

Криптовалютная биржа BitMart заявила о сворачивании деятельности своей торговой платформы после девяти лет работы. В воскресенье, 26 июля, биржа перестала регистрировать новых пользователей.

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Disclaimer：Il contenuto di cui sopra non rappresenta le posizioni di HTX.，HTX non fornisce alcuna raccomandazione di trading.。

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