U.S. 250th Independence Anniversary: 250 Pardons, Is SBF Getting Out?

07/02 15:55

On July 2, with July 4 marking the U.S. Independence Day, this year coincides with the 250th anniversary of American independence. The White House is discussing a proposal for a '250th Anniversary Presidential Pardon for 250 People.' There are still disagreements among White House advisors regarding the political implications of this proposal, and it remains uncertain whether it will be signed. However, the potential for pardons has sparked intense lobbying from lawyers and intermediaries, all hoping to secure clemency for their clients before any possible announcement. The Atlantic has revealed that Jho Low, the central figure in the 1MDB billion-dollar embezzlement case, is on the pardon list. The U.S. Department of Justice previously charged him with conspiracy to launder money and bribe foreign officials. Jho Low has denied any wrongdoing through a spokesperson and remains at large. Rapper Pras Michel, who was convicted for lobbying related to the 1MDB scandal, is also under consideration. The most watched potential pardon recipient in the cryptocurrency space is undoubtedly SBF, the founder of FTX, who was charged with multiple counts of fraud and money laundering following FTX's collapse in 2022 and is currently serving a 25-year sentence. Shortly after his sentencing, SBF's family and team discreetly began lobbying individuals close to Trump. In early 2025, his parents attempted to establish contact with Trump's circle through intermediaries. In March 2025, SBF gave an interview from prison to conservative media figure Tucker Carlson, expressing goodwill. In June 2026, SBF formally submitted a 'post-sentencing pardon' application through the U.S. Department of Justice. Although Trump publicly stated in early 2026 that he had 'no plans to pardon SBF,' SBF and his team continue to work towards leveraging the opportunity of a large-scale pardon for the 250th anniversary of the U.S. The White House officials have responded to the pardon proposal, stating that President Trump is the ultimate decision-maker for all pardons and will take the constitutional power of clemency and commutation seriously. All requests must undergo a rigorous review process by the Department of Justice and the White House Counsel's Office before being presented to the President. Predictive market data shows fierce competition among potential pardon recipients. Among them, former FTX executive Ryan Salame leads with a 54% probability of being pardoned by Trump before 2027, while SBF has only a 1% chance of receiving a pardon before July 31, indicating low overall odds. Additionally, Ghislaine Maxwell, linked to the Epstein case, has only a 5% chance of being pardoned by the end of 2026. Other international figures, such as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo, are also included in the discussions.

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