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On June 23, Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, Bitcoin may see an increase. Since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, U.S. stocks have risen by 9%, while Bitcoin has fallen by 1% and gold has dropped by 20%. Despite significant spending related to AI supporting the stock market, both Bitcoin and gold have underperformed, partly due to market expectations that the Fed may raise rates to combat inflation. Grayscale disagrees with this expectation, positing that the Fed will likely pause rate hikes. If this assessment is correct, Bitcoin's price may catch up with stock performance.

Zach Pandl noted that since the onset of the Iran war, the one-year Fed rate expectations have risen by about 60 basis points, with nearly half of Fed officials believing that a rate hike in 2026 may be appropriate. The European Central Bank has already raised rates. As non-interest-bearing monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies, and rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing demand.

Bitcoin serves a dual purpose in investment portfolios: on one hand, it is a scarce digital commodity that can act as a long-term store of value; on the other hand, it is a public chain asset that provides exposure to the long-term growth of the crypto industry. Therefore, Bitcoin's role in a portfolio is similar but not entirely equivalent to that of gold and growth stocks. Zach Pandl stated that if the likelihood of rate hikes decreases, aligning with Grayscale's fundamental scenario, Bitcoin may catch up with stock performance.

[Grayscale: Bitcoin May Rise if Fed Pauses Rate Hikes]On June 23, Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, Bitcoin may see an increase. Since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, U.S. stocks have risen by 9%, while Bitcoin has fallen by 1% and gold has dropped by 20%. Despite significant spending related to AI supporting the stock market, both Bitcoin and gold have underperformed, partly due to market expectations that the Fed may raise rates to combat inflation. Grayscale disagrees with this expectation, positing that the Fed will likely pause rate hikes. If this assessment is correct, Bitcoin's price may catch up with stock performance.

Zach Pandl noted that since the onset of the Iran war, the one-year Fed rate expectations have risen by about 60 basis points, with nearly half of Fed officials believing that a rate hike in 2026 may be appropriate. The European Central Bank has already raised rates. As non-interest-bearing monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies, and rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing demand.

Bitcoin serves a dual purpose in investment portfolios: on one hand, it is a scarce digital commodity that can act as a long-term store of value; on the other hand, it is a public chain asset that provides exposure to the long-term growth of the crypto industry. Therefore, Bitcoin's role in a portfolio is similar but not entirely equivalent to that of gold and growth stocks. Zach Pandl stated that if the likelihood of rate hikes decreases, aligning with Grayscale's fundamental scenario, Bitcoin may catch up with stock performance.

Grayscale: Bitcoin May Rise if Fed Pauses Rate Hikes

On June 23, the U.S. government announced a temporary lifting of decades-long sanctions on Iranian oil, allowing it to trade crude oil in U.S. dollars and export to American buyers. This historic concession marks a significant turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics and the global energy market. According to reports from Xinhua News Agency and CCTV, the U.S. Treasury Department has issued a 60-day general license that fully exempts Iranian crude oil and petrochemical production and sales from sanctions. Iran has also confirmed the immediate unfreezing of $12 billion in overseas assets. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Vice President Vance revealed that, in exchange, Iran has agreed to allow international inspectors to return to its nuclear facilities, although Tehran has not publicly acknowledged this concession. Analysts point out that this policy reversal has had a direct and profound impact on global investors and the crude oil market. The exemption not only substantially legitimizes Iran's large 'shadow fleet' but also allows entities like the Central Bank of Iran to bypass anti-terrorism sanctions to receive dollar payments. However, significant disagreements remain in nuclear negotiations, with hardliners in Iran explicitly opposing the return of inspectors, leaving the final agreement's viability uncertain. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of the de-escalation mechanism between Hezbollah and Israel remains a core risk factor in determining the long-term sustainability of this agreement.

[U.S. Temporarily Lifts Oil Sanctions on Iran for Two Months, First Time in Decades]On June 23, the U.S. government announced a temporary lifting of decades-long sanctions on Iranian oil, allowing it to trade crude oil in U.S. dollars and export to American buyers. This historic concession marks a significant turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics and the global energy market. According to reports from Xinhua News Agency and CCTV, the U.S. Treasury Department has issued a 60-day general license that fully exempts Iranian crude oil and petrochemical production and sales from sanctions. Iran has also confirmed the immediate unfreezing of $12 billion in overseas assets. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Vice President Vance revealed that, in exchange, Iran has agreed to allow international inspectors to return to its nuclear facilities, although Tehran has not publicly acknowledged this concession. Analysts point out that this policy reversal has had a direct and profound impact on global investors and the crude oil market. The exemption not only substantially legitimizes Iran's large 'shadow fleet' but also allows entities like the Central Bank of Iran to bypass anti-terrorism sanctions to receive dollar payments. However, significant disagreements remain in nuclear negotiations, with hardliners in Iran explicitly opposing the return of inspectors, leaving the final agreement's viability uncertain. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of the de-escalation mechanism between Hezbollah and Israel remains a core risk factor in determining the long-term sustainability of this agreement.

U.S. Temporarily Lifts Oil Sanctions on Iran for Two Months, First Time in Decades

On June 23, it was announced that Polymarket has become the exclusive prediction market partner for the Bundesliga in the United States. Polymarket stated that official event contracts for the Bundesliga and its clubs are now exclusively available on Polymarket.

[Polymarket Becomes Exclusive Prediction Market Partner for Bundesliga in the U.S.]On June 23, it was announced that Polymarket has become the exclusive prediction market partner for the Bundesliga in the United States. Polymarket stated that official event contracts for the Bundesliga and its clubs are now exclusively available on Polymarket.

Polymarket Becomes Exclusive Prediction Market Partner for Bundesliga in the U.S.

On June 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publicly sought input on issues including extending standard futures trading hours to 24/7 continuous trading and whether to allow the listing of perpetual contracts for energy commodities such as crude oil.

[CFTC Seeks Public Input on Extending Futures Trading to 24/7 and Listing Energy Perpetual Contracts]On June 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publicly sought input on issues including extending standard futures trading hours to 24/7 continuous trading and whether to allow the listing of perpetual contracts for energy commodities such as crude oil.

CFTC Seeks Public Input on Extending Futures Trading to 24/7 and Listing Energy Perpetual Contracts

On June 23, Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that despite a weakening stock market and a flattening yield curve, last week's FOMC meeting led by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller was a good and necessary first step to rebuild the Fed's credibility. Wilson noted that since Waller's nomination in February, the ratio of the S&P 500 to gold has increased by nearly 40%, which he believes is a strong vote of confidence from the market in the new chairman's ability to restore policy discipline. Morgan Stanley's strategist pointed out that liquidity, rather than interest rate hikes, is the main risk facing the stock market in the near term. He mentioned that the scale of the reserve management program has decreased by about 75% from its peak, and the scale of Treasury repurchases has also been reduced by 50%. Wilson warned that accelerated loan growth is exacerbating liquidity tightening, as the real economy absorbs more capital while the balance sheet support diminishes. He expects that the US stock market will experience volatility in July and may see a correction, with the next leg of the earnings-driven bull market delayed until liquidity resistance is removed. Wilson also expressed support for Waller's approach to reducing excessive forward guidance, stating that the market should react to newly released data rather than trying to predict the Fed's comments.

[Morgan Stanley: Liquidity Tightening is the Real Threat to US Stocks]On June 23, Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that despite a weakening stock market and a flattening yield curve, last week's FOMC meeting led by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller was a good and necessary first step to rebuild the Fed's credibility. Wilson noted that since Waller's nomination in February, the ratio of the S&P 500 to gold has increased by nearly 40%, which he believes is a strong vote of confidence from the market in the new chairman's ability to restore policy discipline. Morgan Stanley's strategist pointed out that liquidity, rather than interest rate hikes, is the main risk facing the stock market in the near term. He mentioned that the scale of the reserve management program has decreased by about 75% from its peak, and the scale of Treasury repurchases has also been reduced by 50%. Wilson warned that accelerated loan growth is exacerbating liquidity tightening, as the real economy absorbs more capital while the balance sheet support diminishes. He expects that the US stock market will experience volatility in July and may see a correction, with the next leg of the earnings-driven bull market delayed until liquidity resistance is removed. Wilson also expressed support for Waller's approach to reducing excessive forward guidance, stating that the market should react to newly released data rather than trying to predict the Fed's comments.

Morgan Stanley: Liquidity Tightening is the Real Threat to US Stocks

On June 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a request for public comment on two related developments in the energy derivatives market: extending standard futures contract trading hours to 24/7 and potentially listing perpetual contracts referencing physical delivery or storable energy commodities, such as crude oil. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig stated that as registered entities extend trading hours and introduce new contract designs, clear, data-driven records will help the Commission better understand the impact of these developments on the market. This request for comment reflects the CFTC's commitment to supporting responsible innovation while maintaining safeguards against manipulation and market disruption. The request focuses on two sets of questions. The first set pertains to extending standard futures contracts, including energy futures, to 24/7 trading without changing their fixed expiration dates and making significant economic changes to delivery or settlement terms. The second set concerns perpetual contracts referencing physical delivery or storable energy commodities. The CFTC indicated it will use the information and comments received to deepen its understanding of relevant market developments. Public comments must be submitted in writing and delivered within 30 days of the request for comment being published in the Federal Register.

[CFTC Seeks Public Input on Extending Standard Futures Trading to 24/7 and Energy Perpetual Contracts]On June 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a request for public comment on two related developments in the energy derivatives market: extending standard futures contract trading hours to 24/7 and potentially listing perpetual contracts referencing physical delivery or storable energy commodities, such as crude oil. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig stated that as registered entities extend trading hours and introduce new contract designs, clear, data-driven records will help the Commission better understand the impact of these developments on the market. This request for comment reflects the CFTC's commitment to supporting responsible innovation while maintaining safeguards against manipulation and market disruption. The request focuses on two sets of questions. The first set pertains to extending standard futures contracts, including energy futures, to 24/7 trading without changing their fixed expiration dates and making significant economic changes to delivery or settlement terms. The second set concerns perpetual contracts referencing physical delivery or storable energy commodities. The CFTC indicated it will use the information and comments received to deepen its understanding of relevant market developments. Public comments must be submitted in writing and delivered within 30 days of the request for comment being published in the Federal Register.

CFTC Seeks Public Input on Extending Standard Futures Trading to 24/7 and Energy Perpetual Contracts

On June 23, U.S. stocks closed with SpaceX plummeting 16.43%, falling below its IPO closing price, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $400 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market value loss for a global company in history. The stock has declined for three consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of over 23%, and its market value has evaporated by more than $900 billion from its peak. SpaceX's stock price remains 14.5% higher than the IPO issue price of $135, with a current market value of $2.03 trillion. Previously reported, SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion through its first bond issuance as part of a large-scale borrowing plan, with the funds intended to support its expansion in the AI sector. In February of this year, SpaceX completed the acquisition of xAI, a company owned by Elon Musk, officially integrating AI into its core strategic framework. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan stated that debt financing is expected to become a primary source of funding for SpaceX. He anticipates that by 2031, SpaceX's net debt will increase by over $400 billion, far exceeding the current debt levels of nearly all U.S. companies and more than three times the total debt of Oracle Corporation.

[SpaceX Drops Over 16% in One Day, Market Value Falls by Over $900 Billion from Peak]On June 23, U.S. stocks closed with SpaceX plummeting 16.43%, falling below its IPO closing price, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $400 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market value loss for a global company in history. The stock has declined for three consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of over 23%, and its market value has evaporated by more than $900 billion from its peak. SpaceX's stock price remains 14.5% higher than the IPO issue price of $135, with a current market value of $2.03 trillion. Previously reported, SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion through its first bond issuance as part of a large-scale borrowing plan, with the funds intended to support its expansion in the AI sector. In February of this year, SpaceX completed the acquisition of xAI, a company owned by Elon Musk, officially integrating AI into its core strategic framework. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan stated that debt financing is expected to become a primary source of funding for SpaceX. He anticipates that by 2031, SpaceX's net debt will increase by over $400 billion, far exceeding the current debt levels of nearly all U.S. companies and more than three times the total debt of Oracle Corporation.

SpaceX Drops Over 16% in One Day, Market Value Falls by Over $900 Billion from Peak

HTX data monitoring shows that UNI has broken through 3 USDT, currently reported at 3 USDT, with a 24H decline of 1.06%.

【UNI Breakthrough 3 USDT】HTX data monitoring shows that UNI has broken through 3 USDT, currently reported at 3 USDT, with a 24H decline of 1.06%.

UNI Breakthrough 3 USDT

HTX data monitoring shows that BTC has dropped below 64000 USDT, currently reported at 63990.01 USDT, with a 24H increase of 0.74%.

【BTC falls below 64000 USDT】HTX data monitoring shows that BTC has dropped below 64000 USDT, currently reported at 63990.01 USDT, with a 24H increase of 0.74%.

BTC falls below 64000 USDT

火币HTX报道，6月22日，南方两倍做多海力士今日延续强劲涨势。截至今日收盘，该ETF今日的二级市场涨幅为16.55%，今年累计涨幅达1061.92%，最新规模达1130亿港元。该ETF的持续上涨得益于SK海力士的强劲涨势。今日盘中，SK海力士一度涨超6%，再创新高，且市值短暂超过三星电子，成为韩国市值最高的企业。

【南方两倍做多海力士今年上涨1062%】火币HTX报道，6月22日，南方两倍做多海力士今日延续强劲涨势。截至今日收盘，该ETF今日的二级市场涨幅为16.55%，今年累计涨幅达1061.92%，最新规模达1130亿港元。该ETF的持续上涨得益于SK海力士的强劲涨势。今日盘中，SK海力士一度涨超6%，再创新高，且市值短暂超过三星电子，成为韩国市值最高的企业。

南方两倍做多海力士今年上涨1062%

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南方两倍做多海力士今年上涨1062%

Disclaimer：Il contenuto di cui sopra non rappresenta le posizioni di HTX.，HTX non fornisce alcuna raccomandazione di trading.。

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