Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: US-Iran Negotiations Enter Critical Window, Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Data Ahead

05/31 16:05

On May 31, regarding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump stated that the agreement is close to being finalized and demanded that Iran abandon its nuclear weapons capability and open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, however, denied that it had approved the final text of the agreement and emphasized that there are still differences in the related arrangements. US Defense Secretary Hegseth warned that if negotiations fail, the US is prepared to resume military actions against Iran. If both sides can further confirm the extension of the ceasefire or reach a phased agreement next week, risk assets may continue to benefit, while oil prices and safe-haven assets could face new directional choices. On the macro front, the US will release key economic data next week, including the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May and the unemployment rate for May. Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, and the market will further assess the balance between the slowing US economy and inflationary pressures, as well as changes in the future interest rate path. Key events to watch include: Monday at 11:00, the opening of the NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 conference with a keynote speech by Jensen Huang. Tuesday at 13:50, a speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member; at 20:30, a speech on monetary policy by Cleveland Fed President Mester, also a 2026 FOMC voting member; at 22:00, US April JOLTs job openings; Wednesday at 20:15, US May ADP employment numbers; at 22:00, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions; at 20:30, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30; Friday at 01:10, a speech by San Francisco Fed President Daly; at 20:30, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. Meanwhile, AI remains the core theme driving the rise of global risk assets. As the earnings season comes to a close, the market will continue to focus on the performance of companies such as CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Broadcom to observe whether the AI investment boom can continue to spread to more industries. After the US stock market ended May at a historic high, the market will also face the traditional 'June curse' test. In an election year, June is typically the worst month for US stock performance, and investors generally expect the market may soon enter a short-term consolidation phase.

RialzistaRibassistaMi piaceCondividi

Disclaimer：Il contenuto di cui sopra non rappresenta le posizioni di HTX.，HTX non fornisce alcuna raccomandazione di trading.。