Warning: Oil Prices May Surge to $150 if Hormuz Crisis Persists

04/28 10:00

On April 28, as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain stalled and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, international oil prices have strengthened again, with WTI crude returning to the $100 mark, and both WTI and Brent crude rising over 2% in a single day. According to the White House, President Trump and the national security team have reviewed Iran's latest proposal. Iran seeks to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and ceasing hostile actions, but Trump has stated that he will only consider easing sanctions once the agreement is '100% implemented.' Currently, the two sides have not reached an agreement. Tamas Varga, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, warned that if the conflict continues for an extended period, it is 'not impossible' for oil prices to exceed $150. He pointed out that there is currently a lack of sufficient alternative energy to fill the supply gap, and if supply disruptions last longer, the losses in supply will outweigh the impacts of demand shrinkage. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, also stated that even if the conflict ends immediately, it will take months to clear mines, alleviate tanker congestion, and restore production, predicting that the oil market will need at least 4 to 6 months to stabilize. Meanwhile, several Wall Street institutions have simultaneously downgraded their oil market recovery expectations. Goldman Sachs has pushed back the timeline for the recovery of Gulf energy exports to the end of June; Citigroup has projected that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of June, Brent crude prices could rise to $150 per barrel.
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