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On March 19th, Brian Coulton of Fitch Ratings stated that if the oil price surge triggered by the Middle East conflict proves to be temporary, "a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a realistic possibility." The Federal Reserve, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged today, while signaling that it needs more time to assess the impact of the conflict on inflation. Officials slightly raised their inflation forecasts. Coulton commented, "This likely reflects, in part, the recent jump in oil prices, as well as some stickiness in the latest core PCE data." In his view, the Fed may still hold steady in April. Without signs of persistently stubborn inflation, a weakening labor market "would reawaken concerns about the risks of rising unemployment," thereby pushing for a June rate cut.

[Fitch: If oil price shock is short-lived, Fed may cut rates in June]On March 19th, Brian Coulton of Fitch Ratings stated that if the oil price surge triggered by the Middle East conflict proves to be temporary, "a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a realistic possibility." The Federal Reserve, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged today, while signaling that it needs more time to assess the impact of the conflict on inflation. Officials slightly raised their inflation forecasts. Coulton commented, "This likely reflects, in part, the recent jump in oil prices, as well as some stickiness in the latest core PCE data." In his view, the Fed may still hold steady in April. Without signs of persistently stubborn inflation, a weakening labor market "would reawaken concerns about the risks of rising unemployment," thereby pushing for a June rate cut.

Fitch: If oil price shock is short-lived, Fed may cut rates in June

On March 19th, the Federal Reserve's dot plot showed that among the 19 officials, 7 believed interest rates should remain unchanged throughout 2026, 7 believed in a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points, 2 believed in a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points, 2 believed in a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, and 1 believed in a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points.

[Federal Reserve Dot Plot Median: Cumulative 25 Basis Point Rate Cut by 2026]On March 19th, the Federal Reserve's dot plot showed that among the 19 officials, 7 believed interest rates should remain unchanged throughout 2026, 7 believed in a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points, 2 believed in a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points, 2 believed in a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, and 1 believed in a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points.

Federal Reserve Dot Plot Median: Cumulative 25 Basis Point Rate Cut by 2026

On March 19th, the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast of one interest rate cut each in 2026 and 2027.

[The Federal Reserve maintains its forecast of one rate cut in both 2026 and 2027.]On March 19th, the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast of one interest rate cut each in 2026 and 2027.

The Federal Reserve maintains its forecast of one rate cut in both 2026 and 2027.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the possibility of the next move being a rate hike was indeed mentioned; the vast majority do not consider a rate hike to be the baseline scenario for the next move.

[Powell: The possibility of a further interest rate hike next was indeed mentioned.]Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the possibility of the next move being a rate hike was indeed mentioned; the vast majority do not consider a rate hike to be the baseline scenario for the next move.

Powell: The possibility of a further interest rate hike next was indeed mentioned.

On March 19th, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced in a statement on the night of the 18th local time that its missile forces launched missile attacks on the US military's Salam base in Sulaymaniyah Governorate, Iraq, and Kurdish armed bases in Zagoye, Sulaymaniyah Governorate. (CCTV News)

[Iran Strikes US Military Bases and Kurdish Militant Bases within Iraq]On March 19th, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced in a statement on the night of the 18th local time that its missile forces launched missile attacks on the US military's Salam base in Sulaymaniyah Governorate, Iraq, and Kurdish armed bases in Zagoye, Sulaymaniyah Governorate. (CCTV News)

Iran Strikes US Military Bases and Kurdish Militant Bases within Iraq

On March 19, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.64%, the Nasdaq down 1.46%, and the S&P 500 down 1.36%.

[The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower.]On March 19, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.64%, the Nasdaq down 1.46%, and the S&P 500 down 1.36%.

The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower.

On March 19th, the Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections showed median expected US GDP growth rates of 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. These compare to the December projections of 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9%. The projections also indicated median expected core PCE inflation rates of 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, compared to December's expectations of 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0%.

[The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections show a median expectation of 2.4% for US GDP growth by the end of 2026.]On March 19th, the Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections showed median expected US GDP growth rates of 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. These compare to the December projections of 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9%. The projections also indicated median expected core PCE inflation rates of 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, compared to December's expectations of 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0%.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections show a median expectation of 2.4% for US GDP growth by the end of 2026.

On March 19th, QatarEnergy announced on the 18th local time that Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City was hit by a missile attack that evening. The statement indicated that the attack caused a fire and significant property damage, but no casualties. Civil defense forces have since brought the fire under control. Earlier that day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued an urgent warning stating that five oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar were legitimate targets for strikes within the next few hours, urging residents in related areas to evacuate, including the oil and gas facilities in Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City. Following this, Ras Laffan Industrial City underwent an evacuation. (CCTV News)

[Missile Attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City Hours After Iran's Warning]On March 19th, QatarEnergy announced on the 18th local time that Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City was hit by a missile attack that evening. The statement indicated that the attack caused a fire and significant property damage, but no casualties. Civil defense forces have since brought the fire under control. Earlier that day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued an urgent warning stating that five oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar were legitimate targets for strikes within the next few hours, urging residents in related areas to evacuate, including the oil and gas facilities in Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City. Following this, Ras Laffan Industrial City underwent an evacuation. (CCTV News)

Missile Attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City Hours After Iran's Warning

US short-term interest rate futures indicate that traders are gradually losing confidence in the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.

[US short-term interest rate futures indicate that traders are gradually losing confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates this year.]US short-term interest rate futures indicate that traders are gradually losing confidence in the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.

US short-term interest rate futures indicate that traders are gradually losing confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates this year.

spot gold breaks through $5070/ounce, up 2.49% intraday.&nbsp;

[Spot gold broke through $5,070 per ounce, rising 2.49% on the day.]spot gold breaks through $5070/ounce, up 2.49% intraday.&nbsp;

Spot gold broke through $5,070 per ounce, rising 2.49% on the day.

Disclaimer：Il contenuto di cui sopra non rappresenta le posizioni di HTX.，HTX non fornisce alcuna raccomandazione di trading.。

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