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06/23 12:51Rialzista

Will Bitcoin Survive Quantum Computing? Inside the

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Will Bitcoin Survive Quantum Computing? Inside the Race Toward Q-Day A quantum computer could one day break Bitcoin's cryptography. Here's the BTC at risk, the plans to defend it, and the coins already built to resist. For most of Bitcoin's life, the idea that a quantum computer might one day break it was a worry for the distant future. That changed in 2026. A March 2026 Google Quantum AI paper cut the estimated resources needed to crack Bitcoin's signatures by roughly 20x, and Caltech researchers now argue a useful machine could arrive by the end of the decade. The cryptography protecting more than a trillion dollars of digital assets is now on a clock, and the work to replace it has started. A practical attack still looks years away. Google has set itself a 2029 internal deadline to migrate to post-quantum cryptography. Caltech and partner Oratomic argue a fault-tolerant quantum computer could appear as soon as 2030. Blockstream's Adam Back maintains the real threat is 20–40 years out. The exposure, however, is enormous: research group Project Eleven estimates that roughly a third of all BTC (almost 7 million coins) sits in addresses whose public keys are already visible on-chain. That includes ~1.7 million in ancient P2PK addresses, of which ~1.1 million is attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. Urgency spiked when a researcher recently claimed a bounty for breaking a small elliptic-curve key using real quantum hardware. The key was far smaller than Bitcoin's but a working proof of concept. Developer Paul Sztorc is responding to the question with a controversial fork. His eCash project, planned for August 2026, would airdrop 1:1 to existing BTC holders while reassigning 500,000 of Satoshi's dormant coins on the new chain to early investors and developers.
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