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On May 25, Trump publicly praised Micron at a large rally in Suffern, New York on May 22, stating, "Big company Micron, boy, Micron is great." According to market fund flow tracking account Capital Flow, on the afternoon of May 22, several traders concentrated on buying deep out-of-the-money (OTM) call options for Micron, with strike prices ranging from $750 to $1400, and expiration dates focused on January 15, 2027 (237 days to expiration) and July 17, 2026 (55 days to expiration). On that day, there were at least nine large call option buy orders between noon and afternoon, with seven of them concentrated between 1:19 PM and 1:53 PM. The most aggressive order was for a contract with a strike price of $1400 expiring in January 2027, with a premium of $1.4136 million. For this trade to be profitable, Micron would need to rise nearly 90% from around $745 within less than eight months. This is not the first time Trump has engaged in similar actions; in March, documents revealed that Trump purchased between $25,000 and $50,000 worth of Micron stock on March 25, and the next day he praised Micron on Fox News. Subsequently, the Trump Organization explained that Trump's account is managed by a third-party financial institution, and he does not participate in specific investment decisions.

[Trump Publicly Praises Micron, Speculation of Aggressive Call Option Purchases]On May 25, Trump publicly praised Micron at a large rally in Suffern, New York on May 22, stating, "Big company Micron, boy, Micron is great." According to market fund flow tracking account Capital Flow, on the afternoon of May 22, several traders concentrated on buying deep out-of-the-money (OTM) call options for Micron, with strike prices ranging from $750 to $1400, and expiration dates focused on January 15, 2027 (237 days to expiration) and July 17, 2026 (55 days to expiration). On that day, there were at least nine large call option buy orders between noon and afternoon, with seven of them concentrated between 1:19 PM and 1:53 PM. The most aggressive order was for a contract with a strike price of $1400 expiring in January 2027, with a premium of $1.4136 million. For this trade to be profitable, Micron would need to rise nearly 90% from around $745 within less than eight months. This is not the first time Trump has engaged in similar actions; in March, documents revealed that Trump purchased between $25,000 and $50,000 worth of Micron stock on March 25, and the next day he praised Micron on Fox News. Subsequently, the Trump Organization explained that Trump's account is managed by a third-party financial institution, and he does not participate in specific investment decisions.

Trump Publicly Praises Micron, Speculation of Aggressive Call Option Purchases

On May 25, Reuters reported that Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Information Technology announced the blocking of the prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying it as an online gambling platform. The ministry stated that its activities "involve betting and speculation on uncertain events," which violates Indonesian law. Polymarket had previously launched a betting market regarding when Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto would "step down," which garnered widespread attention on Indonesian social media. Ministry official Alexander Sabar indicated that the government is investigating all social media accounts related to Polymarket.

[Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Online Gambling Violations]On May 25, Reuters reported that Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Information Technology announced the blocking of the prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying it as an online gambling platform. The ministry stated that its activities "involve betting and speculation on uncertain events," which violates Indonesian law. Polymarket had previously launched a betting market regarding when Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto would "step down," which garnered widespread attention on Indonesian social media. Ministry official Alexander Sabar indicated that the government is investigating all social media accounts related to Polymarket.

Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Online Gambling Violations

On May 25, BlackRock stated that under the leadership of new Fed Chair Waller, there may be sufficient reasons for the Federal Reserve to support a rate cut rather than a rate hike. Navin Saigal, head of BlackRock's Global Fixed Income business in Asia Pacific, responded to questions about the likelihood of rate hikes during Waller's tenure, saying, "If I had to choose between a rate hike and a rate cut, I believe there are actually sufficient factors to support a rate cut." He added, "Looking ahead, the labor market will face certain pressures, which may indicate that the Fed will either hold steady or cut rates." Saigal's comments contrast with the general expectations of bond investors, who are betting that Waller will prioritize maintaining the Fed's credibility in combating inflation over accommodating President Trump's calls for lower interest rates. Current pricing indicates that the market is almost certain the Fed will raise rates before December. (Jin Shi)

[BlackRock Analyst: Fed Under Waller May Support a Rate Cut]On May 25, BlackRock stated that under the leadership of new Fed Chair Waller, there may be sufficient reasons for the Federal Reserve to support a rate cut rather than a rate hike. Navin Saigal, head of BlackRock's Global Fixed Income business in Asia Pacific, responded to questions about the likelihood of rate hikes during Waller's tenure, saying, "If I had to choose between a rate hike and a rate cut, I believe there are actually sufficient factors to support a rate cut." He added, "Looking ahead, the labor market will face certain pressures, which may indicate that the Fed will either hold steady or cut rates." Saigal's comments contrast with the general expectations of bond investors, who are betting that Waller will prioritize maintaining the Fed's credibility in combating inflation over accommodating President Trump's calls for lower interest rates. Current pricing indicates that the market is almost certain the Fed will raise rates before December. (Jin Shi)

BlackRock Analyst: Fed Under Waller May Support a Rate Cut

On May 25, Whale Alert reported that an Ethereum pre-mined address dormant for approximately 10.8 years was activated, transferring out about 1 ETH. Initially, the address held around 2,000 ETH. The current market value of the assets in this address is approximately $4.23 million, compared to about $620 in 2015.

[Ethereum Pre-Mined Address Dormant for 10.8 Years Activated]On May 25, Whale Alert reported that an Ethereum pre-mined address dormant for approximately 10.8 years was activated, transferring out about 1 ETH. Initially, the address held around 2,000 ETH. The current market value of the assets in this address is approximately $4.23 million, compared to about $620 in 2015.

Ethereum Pre-Mined Address Dormant for 10.8 Years Activated

On May 25, according to an official announcement, Huobi HTX has launched BMNR/USDT and ARM/USDT perpetual contracts, with a maximum leverage of 10 times. Additionally, from May 25, 15:00 to June 1, 15:00 (UTC+8), Huobi HTX is hosting a trading party for BMNR and ARM contracts, with a total prize pool of up to 20,000 USDT. During the event, users who register and participate in BMNR/USDT and ARM/USDT contract trading with a cumulative valid trading volume of ≥1,000 USDT will be eligible to share the prize pool based on their trading volume ranking. New users trading BMNR/USDT and ARM/USDT contracts will also receive exclusive benefits. For more details, please follow the official announcements.

[Huobi HTX Launches BMNR and ARM Perpetual Contracts and Starts Trading Party]On May 25, according to an official announcement, Huobi HTX has launched BMNR/USDT and ARM/USDT perpetual contracts, with a maximum leverage of 10 times. Additionally, from May 25, 15:00 to June 1, 15:00 (UTC+8), Huobi HTX is hosting a trading party for BMNR and ARM contracts, with a total prize pool of up to 20,000 USDT. During the event, users who register and participate in BMNR/USDT and ARM/USDT contract trading with a cumulative valid trading volume of ≥1,000 USDT will be eligible to share the prize pool based on their trading volume ranking. New users trading BMNR/USDT and ARM/USDT contracts will also receive exclusive benefits. For more details, please follow the official announcements.

Huobi HTX Launches BMNR and ARM Perpetual Contracts and Starts Trading Party

On May 25, it was estimated that Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury company Strive ($SATA) acquired a record 794 bitcoins last week, increasing its holdings by 5.16%, outperforming the buying volume of Strategy's $MSTR. To match this pace, Strategy would need to purchase 42,250 bitcoins weekly.

[Strive Reportedly Acquires Record 794 Bitcoins Last Week]On May 25, it was estimated that Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury company Strive ($SATA) acquired a record 794 bitcoins last week, increasing its holdings by 5.16%, outperforming the buying volume of Strategy's $MSTR. To match this pace, Strategy would need to purchase 42,250 bitcoins weekly.

Strive Reportedly Acquires Record 794 Bitcoins Last Week

On May 25, Futu Securities (Hong Kong) issued a statement regarding recent regulatory matters: Recently, eight Chinese ministries released a rectification plan for cross-border securities business, which is an industry regulation aimed at institutions providing overseas securities and fund trading services to mainland investors, including all relevant brokerages, banks, and other financial institutions. Any institution claiming to be exempt from the new regulations of the eight ministries may be a scam, and users are advised to retain written communication as evidence to protect their assets in the future. The current mainland regulatory guidelines only apply to investors who 'hold only a mainland Chinese ID card or mainland passport, with no overseas identity.' If users hold any of the following overseas identification documents, they will not be affected, and their accounts and all trading services will operate normally: Hong Kong permanent resident ID; Hong Kong non-permanent resident ID (temporary ID); work visa/study visa; other valid overseas identification. Futu Securities (Hong Kong) stated that there are currently no detailed regulatory rules for the industry's two-year concentrated rectification period, and all user accounts and trading/fund services are functioning normally.

[Futu Responds to New Cross-Border Securities Regulations in China: Users with Overseas Identities Unaffected]On May 25, Futu Securities (Hong Kong) issued a statement regarding recent regulatory matters: Recently, eight Chinese ministries released a rectification plan for cross-border securities business, which is an industry regulation aimed at institutions providing overseas securities and fund trading services to mainland investors, including all relevant brokerages, banks, and other financial institutions. Any institution claiming to be exempt from the new regulations of the eight ministries may be a scam, and users are advised to retain written communication as evidence to protect their assets in the future. The current mainland regulatory guidelines only apply to investors who 'hold only a mainland Chinese ID card or mainland passport, with no overseas identity.' If users hold any of the following overseas identification documents, they will not be affected, and their accounts and all trading services will operate normally: Hong Kong permanent resident ID; Hong Kong non-permanent resident ID (temporary ID); work visa/study visa; other valid overseas identification. Futu Securities (Hong Kong) stated that there are currently no detailed regulatory rules for the industry's two-year concentrated rectification period, and all user accounts and trading/fund services are functioning normally.

Futu Responds to New Cross-Border Securities Regulations in China: Users with Overseas Identities Unaffected

On May 25, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that the additional budget expenditure will be slightly over 3 trillion yen; it is possible to approve the budget without affecting the bond market.

[Japanese Prime Minister: Budget Approval Possible Without Affecting Bond Market]On May 25, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that the additional budget expenditure will be slightly over 3 trillion yen; it is possible to approve the budget without affecting the bond market.

Japanese Prime Minister: Budget Approval Possible Without Affecting Bond Market

On May 25, while global market attention remains focused on US-Iran negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, investors are increasingly turning their attention to a deeper issue: whether global central banks can continue to stabilize markets as they have over the past decade in the face of high inflation, high interest rates, and sovereign debt risks. Although a US-Iran agreement is gradually coming to light, including limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day framework agreement, and the resumption of nuclear negotiations, significant differences remain on core issues such as highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and the Lebanese front. This indicates that while the market is beginning to trade on 'de-escalation of war,' funds have not truly returned to a full risk-on mode. More importantly, the market is now witnessing a phenomenon that has rarely appeared in the past two years: 'rate hike expectations are back.' The US interest rate futures market has begun pricing in a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve as early as October, with a complete pricing of a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller has clearly stated that if inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed will still need to raise rates; the European Central Bank has also begun direct discussions about the possibility of a rate hike in June. This means that the narrative of 'rate cuts saving the market' that the market had initially anticipated is now being replaced by 'high rates becoming permanent.' The core issue behind this is that the global bond market is beginning to push back against the logic of 'central banks always providing a safety net' that has prevailed for over a decade. El-Erian has pointed out the biggest risk: in the past, whether during financial crises, pandemics, or wars, the market believed that central banks would ultimately rescue risk assets through rate cuts, quantitative easing, and fiscal stimulus, making 'buying the dip' the most successful trading strategy globally. However, now, high inflation, high debt, and sovereign credit pressures are starting to limit central banks' ability to intervene, and the market is facing a situation where 'policies may want to help, but may not be able to.' This is also the reason behind the recent significant divergence in global assets. On one hand, US tech and AI stocks remain elevated due to liquidity inertia and growth expectations; on the other hand, US Treasury yields, Japanese long bonds, and the European bond market have begun to experience significant volatility. This indicates that funds are reassessing: if central banks can no longer provide unlimited liquidity in the future, then all currently overvalued assets will have to face pressures from 'real interest rates' and 'cash flow discounting.' In the cryptocurrency market, BTC will still be supported in the short term by a recovery in risk appetite due to the easing Middle East situation, but if global interest rate markets continue to reflect rate hike expectations, high-leverage and high-valuation assets will still face liquidity contraction pressures. The biggest variable in the market is no longer just war, but whether the influence of global policy tools on the market is beginning to decline.

[Bitunix Analyst: Progress in US-Iran Ceasefire Continues, but Global Markets Now Concerned Beyond Just War]On May 25, while global market attention remains focused on US-Iran negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, investors are increasingly turning their attention to a deeper issue: whether global central banks can continue to stabilize markets as they have over the past decade in the face of high inflation, high interest rates, and sovereign debt risks. Although a US-Iran agreement is gradually coming to light, including limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day framework agreement, and the resumption of nuclear negotiations, significant differences remain on core issues such as highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and the Lebanese front. This indicates that while the market is beginning to trade on 'de-escalation of war,' funds have not truly returned to a full risk-on mode. More importantly, the market is now witnessing a phenomenon that has rarely appeared in the past two years: 'rate hike expectations are back.' The US interest rate futures market has begun pricing in a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve as early as October, with a complete pricing of a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller has clearly stated that if inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed will still need to raise rates; the European Central Bank has also begun direct discussions about the possibility of a rate hike in June. This means that the narrative of 'rate cuts saving the market' that the market had initially anticipated is now being replaced by 'high rates becoming permanent.' The core issue behind this is that the global bond market is beginning to push back against the logic of 'central banks always providing a safety net' that has prevailed for over a decade. El-Erian has pointed out the biggest risk: in the past, whether during financial crises, pandemics, or wars, the market believed that central banks would ultimately rescue risk assets through rate cuts, quantitative easing, and fiscal stimulus, making 'buying the dip' the most successful trading strategy globally. However, now, high inflation, high debt, and sovereign credit pressures are starting to limit central banks' ability to intervene, and the market is facing a situation where 'policies may want to help, but may not be able to.' This is also the reason behind the recent significant divergence in global assets. On one hand, US tech and AI stocks remain elevated due to liquidity inertia and growth expectations; on the other hand, US Treasury yields, Japanese long bonds, and the European bond market have begun to experience significant volatility. This indicates that funds are reassessing: if central banks can no longer provide unlimited liquidity in the future, then all currently overvalued assets will have to face pressures from 'real interest rates' and 'cash flow discounting.' In the cryptocurrency market, BTC will still be supported in the short term by a recovery in risk appetite due to the easing Middle East situation, but if global interest rate markets continue to reflect rate hike expectations, high-leverage and high-valuation assets will still face liquidity contraction pressures. The biggest variable in the market is no longer just war, but whether the influence of global policy tools on the market is beginning to decline.

Bitunix Analyst: Progress in US-Iran Ceasefire Continues, but Global Markets Now Concerned Beyond Just War

WatcherGuru tweeted that JP Morgan says the S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if the Federal Reserve only raises interest rates by 50bps on Wednesday.

Detail

【JP Morgan: S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if Fed only raises interest rates by 50bps】WatcherGuru tweeted that JP Morgan says the S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if the Federal Reserve only raises interest rates by 50bps on Wednesday.

JP Morgan: S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if Fed only raises interest rates by 50bps

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zest currently trades at 0.183708 USDT, up 20.27% in 24h, according to HTX market data.

JP Morgan: S&P 500 could surge by 10% in a single day if Fed only raises interest rates by 50bps

Clause de non-responsabilité：Le contenu ci-dessus ne représente pas les positions de HTX.，HTX ne fournit pas de recommandations de trading.。

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