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On July 14, the United States will release June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. The market widely expects that, driven by falling gasoline prices, the overall June CPI may decline by 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate expected to drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%; core CPI is expected to rise by about 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year figure declining to around 2.8%. However, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that this cooling of inflation is more due to the decline in energy prices and does not mean that U.S. inflationary pressures have subsided. Housing, auto insurance, travel services, and the transmission of tariffs to commodity prices may still keep core inflation sticky. Meanwhile, the bond market is further betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Interest rate options show that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July has risen from less than 10% to about 50%, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield staying above 4.25%. Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if core inflation rises again, a rate hike in the short term should be considered. Institutions generally believe that even if the overall CPI declines due to drag from energy prices, the performance of core CPI and its subcomponent structure will still be key to determining whether U.S. inflation has truly peaked and the subsequent policy path of the Federal Reserve.

[Wall Street Warns of 'False Cooling' in Tonight's CPI, Bond Markets Bet on July Rate Hike]On July 14, the United States will release June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. The market widely expects that, driven by falling gasoline prices, the overall June CPI may decline by 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate expected to drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%; core CPI is expected to rise by about 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year figure declining to around 2.8%. However, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that this cooling of inflation is more due to the decline in energy prices and does not mean that U.S. inflationary pressures have subsided. Housing, auto insurance, travel services, and the transmission of tariffs to commodity prices may still keep core inflation sticky. Meanwhile, the bond market is further betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Interest rate options show that the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in July has risen from less than 10% to about 50%, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield staying above 4.25%. Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if core inflation rises again, a rate hike in the short term should be considered. Institutions generally believe that even if the overall CPI declines due to drag from energy prices, the performance of core CPI and its subcomponent structure will still be key to determining whether U.S. inflation has truly peaked and the subsequent policy path of the Federal Reserve.

Wall Street Warns of 'False Cooling' in Tonight's CPI, Bond Markets Bet on July Rate Hike

On July 14, the global tech sector experienced sharp volatility, with discussions of a 'cyclical peak' in the semiconductor industry becoming widespread. However, according to the latest research reports from major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Leuthold Group, this adjustment may not stem from a fundamental reversal but rather from a liquidity 'deleveraging' storm triggered by high-leverage trading. The irrational decline in the KOSPI index previously drew widespread attention. In a report titled 'KOSPI Tests Key Technical Support Levels,' Goldman Sachs stated that the recently introduced 'single-stock leveraged ETFs' are the core driver amplifying intraday volatility. Statistics show that several 2x leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at one point fell more than 30% in a single day. Such extreme fluctuations forced fund managers to sell the underlying stocks to maintain target leverage ratios. This forced liquidation triggered a vicious cycle of 'price decline—forced selling—further price decline,' forming a typical liquidity stampede. Goldman Sachs estimated that approximately 62% of net selling by South Korean institutional investors recently came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Similarly, the U.S. stock market also faces concerns of excessive leverage. Scott Opsal, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group, pointed out that the growth rate of margin debt in the U.S. has entered the 'red zone.' Data shows that in the 12 months ending in May, the growth rate of U.S. margin debt reached 54%, placing it in the 10th decile historically. Historically, such aggressive expansion in margin debt often coincided with market peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2021. This behavior of 'borrowing to buy stocks out of overconfidence' reflects a prevailing 'lottery mentality' in the market. Analysts noted that these leveraged funds are highly concentrated in the semiconductor and AI supply chains, making the market structure extremely fragile. Once sentiment reverses, the collective withdrawal of leveraged positions could lead to violent corrections in previously strong sectors.

[Goldman Sachs: Leveraged ETFs Amplify Market Volatility, Semiconductor Cycle Not Yet Peaked]On July 14, the global tech sector experienced sharp volatility, with discussions of a 'cyclical peak' in the semiconductor industry becoming widespread. However, according to the latest research reports from major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Leuthold Group, this adjustment may not stem from a fundamental reversal but rather from a liquidity 'deleveraging' storm triggered by high-leverage trading. The irrational decline in the KOSPI index previously drew widespread attention. In a report titled 'KOSPI Tests Key Technical Support Levels,' Goldman Sachs stated that the recently introduced 'single-stock leveraged ETFs' are the core driver amplifying intraday volatility. Statistics show that several 2x leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at one point fell more than 30% in a single day. Such extreme fluctuations forced fund managers to sell the underlying stocks to maintain target leverage ratios. This forced liquidation triggered a vicious cycle of 'price decline—forced selling—further price decline,' forming a typical liquidity stampede. Goldman Sachs estimated that approximately 62% of net selling by South Korean institutional investors recently came from the liquidation of such ETFs. Similarly, the U.S. stock market also faces concerns of excessive leverage. Scott Opsal, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group, pointed out that the growth rate of margin debt in the U.S. has entered the 'red zone.' Data shows that in the 12 months ending in May, the growth rate of U.S. margin debt reached 54%, placing it in the 10th decile historically. Historically, such aggressive expansion in margin debt often coincided with market peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2021. This behavior of 'borrowing to buy stocks out of overconfidence' reflects a prevailing 'lottery mentality' in the market. Analysts noted that these leveraged funds are highly concentrated in the semiconductor and AI supply chains, making the market structure extremely fragile. Once sentiment reverses, the collective withdrawal of leveraged positions could lead to violent corrections in previously strong sectors.

Goldman Sachs: Leveraged ETFs Amplify Market Volatility, Semiconductor Cycle Not Yet Peaked

On July 14, traders increased their bets on a Bank of England rate hike, fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by September. UK interest rate futures show that the market expects the Bank of England to tighten policy by about 50 basis points by December, compared with an expectation of about 40 basis points on Monday. (Jin Shi)

[Traders Increase Bank of England Rate Hike Bets, Fully Price in 25bp Hike by September]On July 14, traders increased their bets on a Bank of England rate hike, fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by September. UK interest rate futures show that the market expects the Bank of England to tighten policy by about 50 basis points by December, compared with an expectation of about 40 basis points on Monday. (Jin Shi)

Traders Increase Bank of England Rate Hike Bets, Fully Price in 25bp Hike by September

On July 14, gold prices fell about 25% from their historic highs earlier this year, primarily pressured by high interest rates, a strong dollar, and rising energy prices, which increased holding costs. Short-term pressure is evident. However, many market participants believe that this adjustment has not changed gold's long-term investment logic. Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott, stated that the recent decline in gold was mainly driven by a strong dollar, rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and concentrated liquidation by quantitative funds. He believes that the current decline in gold prices has significantly outpaced the actual increases in the dollar and short-term interest rates, indicating that the bearish factors of high interest rates and a strong dollar have been largely digested by the market. Paul Wong pointed out that a short-term strong dollar often suppresses gold performance, but in the long run, the stronger the dollar, the greater the global impetus to seek alternative reserve assets, which in turn helps enhance gold's strategic position as a neutral reserve asset. As global fiscal deficits expand, central banks continue to increase gold holdings, and geopolitical fragmentation intensifies, gold is gradually evolving from a simple inflation hedge tool into a currency hedge, reserve asset, and even a potential international financial collateral. He believes that gold and the dollar may strengthen simultaneously in the long term due to different logics: the dollar benefits from its core position in the global financing system, while gold benefits from the trend of diversification in global reserve assets. However, on a cyclical level, gold prices still tend to maintain a negative correlation with the dollar index.

[Institution: Strong Dollar Suppresses Gold Price in Short Term, but May Further Strengthen Gold's Long-Term Reserve Asset Status]On July 14, gold prices fell about 25% from their historic highs earlier this year, primarily pressured by high interest rates, a strong dollar, and rising energy prices, which increased holding costs. Short-term pressure is evident. However, many market participants believe that this adjustment has not changed gold's long-term investment logic. Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott, stated that the recent decline in gold was mainly driven by a strong dollar, rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and concentrated liquidation by quantitative funds. He believes that the current decline in gold prices has significantly outpaced the actual increases in the dollar and short-term interest rates, indicating that the bearish factors of high interest rates and a strong dollar have been largely digested by the market. Paul Wong pointed out that a short-term strong dollar often suppresses gold performance, but in the long run, the stronger the dollar, the greater the global impetus to seek alternative reserve assets, which in turn helps enhance gold's strategic position as a neutral reserve asset. As global fiscal deficits expand, central banks continue to increase gold holdings, and geopolitical fragmentation intensifies, gold is gradually evolving from a simple inflation hedge tool into a currency hedge, reserve asset, and even a potential international financial collateral. He believes that gold and the dollar may strengthen simultaneously in the long term due to different logics: the dollar benefits from its core position in the global financing system, while gold benefits from the trend of diversification in global reserve assets. However, on a cyclical level, gold prices still tend to maintain a negative correlation with the dollar index.

Institution: Strong Dollar Suppresses Gold Price in Short Term, but May Further Strengthen Gold's Long-Term Reserve Asset Status

On July 14, BlackRock's USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund BUIDL's on-chain asset management scale reached approximately $2.93 billion, continuously hitting new all-time highs, reflecting sustained growth in institutional investor demand for tokenized U.S. Treasury products. Currently, BUIDL has been deployed on multiple public chains including Ethereum, Avalanche, and Solana, with Securitize handling tokenization issuance and BNY Mellon providing custody. Data shows that Ethereum remains BUIDL's largest deployment network, with a locked-up scale exceeding $1 billion; Avalanche has seen the fastest recent growth, with its asset scale doubling to about $900 million in a single week in July; while Solana's on-chain scale exceeds $550 million. Reports indicate that BUIDL primarily invests in U.S. Treasuries, repurchase agreements, and cash equivalents, maintaining a net asset value of $1 per share and offering an annualized yield of approximately 3%-5%. As more DeFi protocols use BUIDL as collateral and liquidity assets, its application scenarios are expanding from institutional cash management to on-chain financial infrastructure. Market analysts believe that BUIDL's rapid expansion is becoming an important case of traditional finance integrating with blockchain and is driving the continued development of the global tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market.

[BlackRock's On-Chain Tokenized Assets Reach $2.93 Billion, BUIDL Accelerates Expansion to Multi-Chain Ecosystem]On July 14, BlackRock's USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund BUIDL's on-chain asset management scale reached approximately $2.93 billion, continuously hitting new all-time highs, reflecting sustained growth in institutional investor demand for tokenized U.S. Treasury products. Currently, BUIDL has been deployed on multiple public chains including Ethereum, Avalanche, and Solana, with Securitize handling tokenization issuance and BNY Mellon providing custody. Data shows that Ethereum remains BUIDL's largest deployment network, with a locked-up scale exceeding $1 billion; Avalanche has seen the fastest recent growth, with its asset scale doubling to about $900 million in a single week in July; while Solana's on-chain scale exceeds $550 million. Reports indicate that BUIDL primarily invests in U.S. Treasuries, repurchase agreements, and cash equivalents, maintaining a net asset value of $1 per share and offering an annualized yield of approximately 3%-5%. As more DeFi protocols use BUIDL as collateral and liquidity assets, its application scenarios are expanding from institutional cash management to on-chain financial infrastructure. Market analysts believe that BUIDL's rapid expansion is becoming an important case of traditional finance integrating with blockchain and is driving the continued development of the global tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market.

BlackRock's On-Chain Tokenized Assets Reach $2.93 Billion, BUIDL Accelerates Expansion to Multi-Chain Ecosystem

On July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States should control and operate the Strait of Hormuz, and considered charging transit vessels a fee equivalent to 20% of the value of their cargo to cover the cost of maintaining security in the strait. At the same time, Trump said the U.S. may continue military action against Iran, as U.S. forces launched airstrikes on Iran for the third consecutive night. Analysts pointed out that with navigation through the Strait of Hormuz yet to return to normal and the U.S. in its summer travel peak, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and commercial crude oil inventories are likely to continue declining, further supporting international oil price increases. As of the week ending July 3, the U.S. SPR had fallen to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, only slightly above the recommended safety floor of approximately 250 million barrels. Market participants believe that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for an extended period, even with relatively ample domestic crude oil supply in the U.S., global crude oil benchmark prices could continue to rise, thereby pushing up inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rate policies. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that any party ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated, but considered the 20% fee rate too high.

[Trump Proposes Strengthened Control of Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve Hits Lowest Since 1983]On July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States should control and operate the Strait of Hormuz, and considered charging transit vessels a fee equivalent to 20% of the value of their cargo to cover the cost of maintaining security in the strait. At the same time, Trump said the U.S. may continue military action against Iran, as U.S. forces launched airstrikes on Iran for the third consecutive night. Analysts pointed out that with navigation through the Strait of Hormuz yet to return to normal and the U.S. in its summer travel peak, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and commercial crude oil inventories are likely to continue declining, further supporting international oil price increases. As of the week ending July 3, the U.S. SPR had fallen to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, only slightly above the recommended safety floor of approximately 250 million barrels. Market participants believe that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for an extended period, even with relatively ample domestic crude oil supply in the U.S., global crude oil benchmark prices could continue to rise, thereby pushing up inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rate policies. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that any party ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated, but considered the 20% fee rate too high.

Trump Proposes Strengthened Control of Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve Hits Lowest Since 1983

On July 14, the total 24-hour trading volume of Hyperliquid's SK Hynix-related contracts SKHX and SKHY reached $1.836 billion, surpassing BTC and becoming the platform's most active asset by trading volume. Among them, SKHX had a 24-hour trading volume of $1.63 billion and open interest (OI) of $635 million; SKHY had a 24-hour trading volume of $206 million and open interest of $101 million. Currently, SKHY still trades at a premium of approximately 26% compared to SKHX.

[Hyperliquid's SK Hynix-Related Contracts Surpass BTC in 24-Hour Trading Volume, Becoming Platform's Most Active Asset]On July 14, the total 24-hour trading volume of Hyperliquid's SK Hynix-related contracts SKHX and SKHY reached $1.836 billion, surpassing BTC and becoming the platform's most active asset by trading volume. Among them, SKHX had a 24-hour trading volume of $1.63 billion and open interest (OI) of $635 million; SKHY had a 24-hour trading volume of $206 million and open interest of $101 million. Currently, SKHY still trades at a premium of approximately 26% compared to SKHX.

Hyperliquid's SK Hynix-Related Contracts Surpass BTC in 24-Hour Trading Volume, Becoming Platform's Most Active Asset

On July 14, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 500.77 points, or 0.74%, at 67,743.50 points. Among individual stocks, Kioxia rose 5.3% and SoftBank rose 2.2%. The Korea KOSPI index closed up 49.9 points, or 0.73%, at 6,856.83 points on Tuesday (July 14), after briefly falling more than 5% during the session. The KOSDAQ index closed down 1.92%, after falling more than 5% intraday and triggering a suspension of program trading mechanisms. Among individual stocks, SK Hynix closed up 3.6% and Samsung Electronics rose 3.3%.

[Japan and South Korea Stocks Close Higher, Korean Stocks Briefly Plunge Intraday]On July 14, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 500.77 points, or 0.74%, at 67,743.50 points. Among individual stocks, Kioxia rose 5.3% and SoftBank rose 2.2%. The Korea KOSPI index closed up 49.9 points, or 0.73%, at 6,856.83 points on Tuesday (July 14), after briefly falling more than 5% during the session. The KOSDAQ index closed down 1.92%, after falling more than 5% intraday and triggering a suspension of program trading mechanisms. Among individual stocks, SK Hynix closed up 3.6% and Samsung Electronics rose 3.3%.

Japan and South Korea Stocks Close Higher, Korean Stocks Briefly Plunge Intraday

July 14, according to The Korea Times, South Korea's financial regulators will hold a high-level meeting on Thursday to discuss the risks and countermeasures of single-stock leveraged ETFs. The meeting is expected to be held under the framework of the 'F4 meeting', a coordination mechanism for macroeconomic and financial issues under the South Korean government. Officials from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Financial Services Commission, the Financial Supervisory Service, and the Bank of Korea will jointly attend. Amid the recent intensifying volatility in the South Korean stock market, single-stock leveraged ETFs are drawing increasing attention from regulators and market participants. All parties believe that such products have become an important factor driving drastic stock price fluctuations. Informed officials said that regulators have been internally coordinating relevant plans in recent days, but the policy direction has not yet been finalized. Possible measures discussed in the market include raising margin requirements, limiting daily price fluctuation ranges, and adjusting leverage multiples. However, regulatory officials believe that the above measures may only provide temporary relief and cannot fundamentally solve the structural causes of market volatility. (Jinshi)

[Four South Korean Agencies to Meet Thursday on Single-Stock Leveraged ETF Risks]July 14, according to The Korea Times, South Korea's financial regulators will hold a high-level meeting on Thursday to discuss the risks and countermeasures of single-stock leveraged ETFs. The meeting is expected to be held under the framework of the 'F4 meeting', a coordination mechanism for macroeconomic and financial issues under the South Korean government. Officials from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Financial Services Commission, the Financial Supervisory Service, and the Bank of Korea will jointly attend. Amid the recent intensifying volatility in the South Korean stock market, single-stock leveraged ETFs are drawing increasing attention from regulators and market participants. All parties believe that such products have become an important factor driving drastic stock price fluctuations. Informed officials said that regulators have been internally coordinating relevant plans in recent days, but the policy direction has not yet been finalized. Possible measures discussed in the market include raising margin requirements, limiting daily price fluctuation ranges, and adjusting leverage multiples. However, regulatory officials believe that the above measures may only provide temporary relief and cannot fundamentally solve the structural causes of market volatility. (Jinshi)

Four South Korean Agencies to Meet Thursday on Single-Stock Leveraged ETF Risks

The development of an official digital version of the U.S. dollar could help safeguard its global dominance as other countries issue their own, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, weighing in with generally positive remarks on a hot-button topic at the central bank that has left policymakers divided.
"As we consider feedback...we will be thinking not just about the current state of the world, but also how the global financial system might evolve over the next 5 to 10 years," Powell added.

Detail

【Fed's Powell: a U.S. digital dollar could help maintain international primacy】The development of an official digital version of the U.S. dollar could help safeguard its global dominance as other countries issue their own, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, weighing in with generally positive remarks on a hot-button topic at the central bank that has left policymakers divided.
"As we consider feedback...we will be thinking not just about the current state of the world, but also how the global financial system might evolve over the next 5 to 10 years," Powell added.

Fed's Powell: a U.S. digital dollar could help maintain international primacy

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Fed's Powell: a U.S. digital dollar could help maintain international primacy

Clause de non-responsabilité：Le contenu ci-dessus ne représente pas les positions de HTX.，HTX ne fournit pas de recommandations de trading.。

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