Analysis: Bitcoin's Weak Rebound Target Range of $64,000 to $68,000, with $70,000 as Bear Market Resistance

07/04 05:55

On July 4, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the average cost of Bitcoin's short-term holdings (less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is concentrated in the range of $64,000 to $68,000. The price needs to repeatedly attempt to break through this range to gradually align with the cost trend line. However, each attempt to break through triggers some weak holders to cash out when their losses turn into profits. This cycle of 'breakthrough - encounter resistance - pullback - re-breakthrough' is a necessary process for forming a bottom consensus. Based on this, the analyst divides the expectations for this rebound into three levels: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost logic, while $70,000 is where short-term holders realize their profits (STH-RP), which is often seen as the ceiling for bear market rebounds. In the on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP serves as the emotional bull-bear dividing line, with each trend reversal beginning at the last breakthrough of this line. The analyst personally leans towards this being a 'weak rebound', expecting a rise to the $64,000 to $68,000 range. If there is an unexpected breakthrough of $70,000, it would be defined as a strong rebound, at which point partial profit-taking on existing positions would be considered to leave room for subsequent adjustments. Options market data also shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma state around $62,000, and hedging behavior as the price approaches this level will suppress volatility; the next positive Gamma position after a breakthrough falls between $66,000 and $68,000, which also constitutes a resistance zone.

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