Opinion: High Disparity in US Stocks Signals Caution for Semiconductor Sector Pullback Risks

07/01 07:00

On July 1, Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, stated that despite the S&P 500 index continuing to rise, there is a noticeable internal market divergence, particularly with accumulating risks in the technology sector. A prominent feature of the current market is the severe disparity in individual stock performances. For instance, Meta's stock price is near its 52-week low, while Micron Technology and AMD have seen significant increases. This 'rise for some, fall for others' disparity indicates that the gains of a few stocks are masking the overall volatility of the index, making the market appear more stable than it actually is. The S&P 500 constituent stock disparity index is currently at a high level, only surpassed historically during the pandemic crash in March 2020 and the 'tariff shock' in April 2025. Volatility indicators are showing similar signals. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is currently around 17, which is relatively moderate; however, the VIXEQ, which measures individual stock volatility, is close to 46, marking a historical high. The gap between the two has widened to the most significant level since 2015, indicating that market risks have not disappeared but have shifted from the index level to the individual stock level. Meanwhile, the three-month implied correlation index is below 10, showing weak inter-stock correlation, suggesting that in the event of a sudden incident, the market could quickly reprice risks. Kramer believes that sectors with the highest implied volatility will be the most affected, with the semiconductor industry being particularly noteworthy. Since the end of March 2026, both Micron and AMD's stock prices have more than doubled, driven by continuously rising expectations for AI-related spending and rapid valuation expansion, while options trading activity remains at high market levels. The Cboe Semiconductor ETF volatility index is approximately twice that of the Russell 2000 index and the Nasdaq 100 index, and more than three times that of the S&P 500 index, indicating that the risks in this sector are significantly higher than the broader market.
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