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On June 21, Bernstein's star chip analyst Stacy Rasgon stated that this is the first time in his 18-year career that he has truly witnessed a semiconductor supercycle. With a PhD from MIT and an engineering background, Rasgon provided shocking data: the semiconductor industry surpassed $800 billion in total revenue last year and is racing towards $1.3 trillion this year, with all segments from accelerators to memory, semiconductor equipment, optical networking, power chips, and CPUs experiencing overwhelming demand. 'The only consensus we hear now is that no one's computing power is sufficient. For example, in memory, HBM in AI chips may occupy over 85% of the silicon area, and the silicon area required to manufacture 1GB of HBM is about four times that of standard DRAM, meaning that even if fabs ramp up production crazily, the actual increase in storage capacity remains very limited. This supply-demand mismatch has even benefited Intel—its inventory, which had been written down to zero, has been completely sold out, with customers saying they don't care and asking us to sell to them,' Rasgon pointed out. He noted that the industry's core focus is shifting from model training to AI inference, which is key to commercial monetization—training models themselves do not generate revenue; using the models does. Data from Anthropic shows that annualized revenue skyrocketed from about $9 billion in December last year to $30 billion in April this year, nearly a vertical increase. In the chip competition landscape, custom ASICs represented by Broadcom and NVIDIA GPUs are not a zero-sum game; 'the right pain point is whether the opportunity is still growing—if it is large enough, both will thrive.' Currently, Broadcom expects AI revenue to reach $100 billion next year, with ASICs accounting for about a dozen percentage points of the AI chip market revenue, which is expected to rise to 25%-30% in the future, but will not completely replace GPUs. Regarding inference chip startups like Groq, recently acquired by NVIDIA, Rasgon quoted Jensen Huang's judgment: not all tokens are the same, low-latency tokens are more valuable, and GPUs are not the optimal choice for all tasks. When asked about the most overlooked risk in the industry, Rasgon shifted the focus from silicon to the physical world—electricity. It is estimated that if NVIDIA's projected annual infrastructure investment of $3 to $4 trillion comes true, the U.S. power grid would need to expand by about 5% each year, a task that analysts in the power industry see as nearly impossible. This means the next wave of bottlenecks will fall on energy generation, cooling, and nuclear power sectors, 'but never underestimate human creativity; engineers always find a way when there is profit to be made.' Regarding Intel, the pragmatic strategy of new CEO Pat Gelsinger with low expectations and the better-than-expected yield of the new 18A process, along with significant investments from the government and NVIDIA, have greatly alleviated previous market concerns about the balance sheet. Rasgon concluded that as long as AI demand does not collapse, the supercycle across the entire industry chain will continue, and the capital market's focus must closely follow the capacity bottlenecks that traverse various segments.

[Bernstein Senior Analyst: The First True Chip Supercycle is Here, with 'Bottlenecks' as Wealth Creators]On June 21, Bernstein's star chip analyst Stacy Rasgon stated that this is the first time in his 18-year career that he has truly witnessed a semiconductor supercycle. With a PhD from MIT and an engineering background, Rasgon provided shocking data: the semiconductor industry surpassed $800 billion in total revenue last year and is racing towards $1.3 trillion this year, with all segments from accelerators to memory, semiconductor equipment, optical networking, power chips, and CPUs experiencing overwhelming demand. 'The only consensus we hear now is that no one's computing power is sufficient. For example, in memory, HBM in AI chips may occupy over 85% of the silicon area, and the silicon area required to manufacture 1GB of HBM is about four times that of standard DRAM, meaning that even if fabs ramp up production crazily, the actual increase in storage capacity remains very limited. This supply-demand mismatch has even benefited Intel—its inventory, which had been written down to zero, has been completely sold out, with customers saying they don't care and asking us to sell to them,' Rasgon pointed out. He noted that the industry's core focus is shifting from model training to AI inference, which is key to commercial monetization—training models themselves do not generate revenue; using the models does. Data from Anthropic shows that annualized revenue skyrocketed from about $9 billion in December last year to $30 billion in April this year, nearly a vertical increase. In the chip competition landscape, custom ASICs represented by Broadcom and NVIDIA GPUs are not a zero-sum game; 'the right pain point is whether the opportunity is still growing—if it is large enough, both will thrive.' Currently, Broadcom expects AI revenue to reach $100 billion next year, with ASICs accounting for about a dozen percentage points of the AI chip market revenue, which is expected to rise to 25%-30% in the future, but will not completely replace GPUs. Regarding inference chip startups like Groq, recently acquired by NVIDIA, Rasgon quoted Jensen Huang's judgment: not all tokens are the same, low-latency tokens are more valuable, and GPUs are not the optimal choice for all tasks. When asked about the most overlooked risk in the industry, Rasgon shifted the focus from silicon to the physical world—electricity. It is estimated that if NVIDIA's projected annual infrastructure investment of $3 to $4 trillion comes true, the U.S. power grid would need to expand by about 5% each year, a task that analysts in the power industry see as nearly impossible. This means the next wave of bottlenecks will fall on energy generation, cooling, and nuclear power sectors, 'but never underestimate human creativity; engineers always find a way when there is profit to be made.' Regarding Intel, the pragmatic strategy of new CEO Pat Gelsinger with low expectations and the better-than-expected yield of the new 18A process, along with significant investments from the government and NVIDIA, have greatly alleviated previous market concerns about the balance sheet. Rasgon concluded that as long as AI demand does not collapse, the supercycle across the entire industry chain will continue, and the capital market's focus must closely follow the capacity bottlenecks that traverse various segments.

Bernstein Senior Analyst: The First True Chip Supercycle is Here, with 'Bottlenecks' as Wealth Creators

On June 21, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated: We will not give up our right to enrich uranium, and the other party must accept this.

[Iran Reiterates Its Right to Enrich Uranium]On June 21, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated: We will not give up our right to enrich uranium, and the other party must accept this.

Iran Reiterates Its Right to Enrich Uranium

On June 21, sources reported that the United States hopes to conclude the first round of negotiations with Iran inviting UN nuclear inspectors to visit its nuclear facilities, which have previously been bombed by the US and Israel. The last such visit occurred in June 2025.

[US Seeks First Round of Talks to End with Iran Inviting UN to Visit Nuclear Facilities]On June 21, sources reported that the United States hopes to conclude the first round of negotiations with Iran inviting UN nuclear inspectors to visit its nuclear facilities, which have previously been bombed by the US and Israel. The last such visit occurred in June 2025.

US Seeks First Round of Talks to End with Iran Inviting UN to Visit Nuclear Facilities

On June 21, Trump posted on Truth Social stating that Iran must immediately stop its proxy in Lebanon (Hezbollah) from continuing to create incidents. If they do not do so, we will strike Iran hard again, just like last week, and it will be even harsher!

[Trump Threatens Iran to Control Hezbollah or Face Strikes Again]On June 21, Trump posted on Truth Social stating that Iran must immediately stop its proxy in Lebanon (Hezbollah) from continuing to create incidents. If they do not do so, we will strike Iran hard again, just like last week, and it will be even harsher!

Trump Threatens Iran to Control Hezbollah or Face Strikes Again

On June 21, according to HTX market information, the TRUMP token experienced a short-term surge, breaking through $2 and rising over 10% in half an hour, currently reported at $1.952.

[TRUMP Token Surges Over $2, Rises More Than 10% in Half an Hour]On June 21, according to HTX market information, the TRUMP token experienced a short-term surge, breaking through $2 and rising over 10% in half an hour, currently reported at $1.952.

TRUMP Token Surges Over $2, Rises More Than 10% in Half an Hour

On June 21, Xinhua News Agency reported that U.S. President Trump stated in an interview with Fox News that if the U.S. and Iran fail to reach an agreement, the U.S. will become the 'guardian' of the Strait of Hormuz and collect 20% of the oil revenue from the Middle East. The media noted that Trump spoke with Iranian officials on the evening of the 20th, warning them not to close the Strait of Hormuz. Trump told Iranian officials, 'If you close it, you will no longer have a country.' He stated, 'If necessary, we may take over the Strait of Hormuz,' and that 'we will strike them (Iran) hard,' adding that 'if they do not reach an agreement, we will impose a toll.' Trump remarked that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding merely extended the ceasefire and was not a final agreement. He indicated that he would keep various options open if Iran does not make serious commitments at the negotiating table. In response to Iranian President Raisi's comments about not relinquishing uranium enrichment rights, Trump said, 'He better watch his words.' On social media, Trump stated on the 21st that Iran must immediately stop its 'proxy' actions in Lebanon, or the U.S. would launch another severe strike against Iran, 'just like last week, but even more severe.' (Xinhua News Agency)

[Trump Claims U.S. May Collect 20% of Oil Revenue from the Middle East]On June 21, Xinhua News Agency reported that U.S. President Trump stated in an interview with Fox News that if the U.S. and Iran fail to reach an agreement, the U.S. will become the 'guardian' of the Strait of Hormuz and collect 20% of the oil revenue from the Middle East. The media noted that Trump spoke with Iranian officials on the evening of the 20th, warning them not to close the Strait of Hormuz. Trump told Iranian officials, 'If you close it, you will no longer have a country.' He stated, 'If necessary, we may take over the Strait of Hormuz,' and that 'we will strike them (Iran) hard,' adding that 'if they do not reach an agreement, we will impose a toll.' Trump remarked that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding merely extended the ceasefire and was not a final agreement. He indicated that he would keep various options open if Iran does not make serious commitments at the negotiating table. In response to Iranian President Raisi's comments about not relinquishing uranium enrichment rights, Trump said, 'He better watch his words.' On social media, Trump stated on the 21st that Iran must immediately stop its 'proxy' actions in Lebanon, or the U.S. would launch another severe strike against Iran, 'just like last week, but even more severe.' (Xinhua News Agency)

Trump Claims U.S. May Collect 20% of Oil Revenue from the Middle East

On June 21, U.S. President Trump stated: Iran must immediately stop its proxies in Lebanon from continuing to create incidents. If they do not do so, we will strike Iran hard again, just like we did last week, and it will be even harsher!

[Trump Threatens Iran Over Hezbollah Control or Face Strikes Again]On June 21, U.S. President Trump stated: Iran must immediately stop its proxies in Lebanon from continuing to create incidents. If they do not do so, we will strike Iran hard again, just like we did last week, and it will be even harsher!

Trump Threatens Iran Over Hezbollah Control or Face Strikes Again

On June 21, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale has opened a 20x leveraged short position on Ethereum, currently holding 23,000 ETH, valued at $39.64 million, with a liquidation price of $1,832.43.

[Whale Opens 20x ETH Short Position Worth $39.64 Million]On June 21, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale has opened a 20x leveraged short position on Ethereum, currently holding 23,000 ETH, valued at $39.64 million, with a liquidation price of $1,832.43.

Whale Opens 20x ETH Short Position Worth $39.64 Million

On June 21, U.S. Vice President Vance stated: President Trump has asked us to 'turn a new page' to change our relationship with the Iranian people. More progress is expected within hours. In the past few days, we have made significant progress in ensuring a ceasefire in Lebanon. Such ceasefires are always a bit chaotic. President Trump is committed to achieving a comprehensive regional ceasefire.

[Vance: Trump Committed to Achieving Comprehensive Regional Ceasefire, Significant Progress in Lebanon Ceasefire in Recent Days]On June 21, U.S. Vice President Vance stated: President Trump has asked us to 'turn a new page' to change our relationship with the Iranian people. More progress is expected within hours. In the past few days, we have made significant progress in ensuring a ceasefire in Lebanon. Such ceasefires are always a bit chaotic. President Trump is committed to achieving a comprehensive regional ceasefire.

Vance: Trump Committed to Achieving Comprehensive Regional Ceasefire, Significant Progress in Lebanon Ceasefire in Recent Days

On June 21, local time on the 20th, sources from Iraqi security forces reported that the residence of Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi was attacked by an unidentified drone. (CCTV News)

[Sources: Residence of Iraqi Parliament Speaker Targeted by Drone Attack]On June 21, local time on the 20th, sources from Iraqi security forces reported that the residence of Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi was attacked by an unidentified drone. (CCTV News)

Sources: Residence of Iraqi Parliament Speaker Targeted by Drone Attack

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Sources: Residence of Iraqi Parliament Speaker Targeted by Drone Attack

Clause de non-responsabilité：Le contenu ci-dessus ne représente pas les positions de HTX.，HTX ne fournit pas de recommandations de trading.。

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