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On April 30, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement: 
1. The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate range at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive announcement this year to keep rates unchanged. 
2. The voting results for this policy decision were 8 to 4: Milan voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut; Hamack, Kashkari, and Logan also voted against, opposing the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. 
3. The Federal Reserve described inflation as 'still elevated,' rather than 'slightly elevated' as previously stated, due to global energy prices. 
4. The Federal Reserve aims to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term, with developments in the Middle East exacerbating the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The committee is attentive to the dual risks facing its dual mandate. 
5. The Federal Reserve indicated that recent indicators show economic activity expanding at a solid pace. Job growth has remained low on average, while the unemployment rate has seen little change in recent months. 
6. The Federal Reserve stated that when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess the latest data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. 
Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks: 
1. The current policy stance is appropriate and supports the achievement of the Federal Reserve's policy goals; the current stance is well-suited for waiting. 
2. The number of officials supporting a shift towards a neutral bias has increased; perhaps the next meeting will consider changing the current easing bias, and rate guidance may change at the next meeting. 
3. If we need to raise rates, we will certainly signal that; currently, no one is calling for a rate hike. 
4. Both aspects of the dual mandate face risks, with long-term inflation expectations aligned with the 2% target. The goal is to gradually bring inflation down to 2% while minimizing harm as much as possible. 
5. After his term as Federal Reserve Chair ends on May 15, he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor. 
6. Job growth is slow, the unemployment rate has not changed much, and consumer spending remains resilient; developments in the Middle East bring high uncertainty. 
7. The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing threats, and the boundaries between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury need to be respected. If the Federal Reserve makes politically colored decisions, the market will lose confidence.

[Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Powell's Key Remarks: Rates Unchanged, Powell to Remain as Governor After Term Ends]On April 30, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement: 
1. The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate range at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive announcement this year to keep rates unchanged. 
2. The voting results for this policy decision were 8 to 4: Milan voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut; Hamack, Kashkari, and Logan also voted against, opposing the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. 
3. The Federal Reserve described inflation as 'still elevated,' rather than 'slightly elevated' as previously stated, due to global energy prices. 
4. The Federal Reserve aims to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term, with developments in the Middle East exacerbating the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The committee is attentive to the dual risks facing its dual mandate. 
5. The Federal Reserve indicated that recent indicators show economic activity expanding at a solid pace. Job growth has remained low on average, while the unemployment rate has seen little change in recent months. 
6. The Federal Reserve stated that when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess the latest data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. 
Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks: 
1. The current policy stance is appropriate and supports the achievement of the Federal Reserve's policy goals; the current stance is well-suited for waiting. 
2. The number of officials supporting a shift towards a neutral bias has increased; perhaps the next meeting will consider changing the current easing bias, and rate guidance may change at the next meeting. 
3. If we need to raise rates, we will certainly signal that; currently, no one is calling for a rate hike. 
4. Both aspects of the dual mandate face risks, with long-term inflation expectations aligned with the 2% target. The goal is to gradually bring inflation down to 2% while minimizing harm as much as possible. 
5. After his term as Federal Reserve Chair ends on May 15, he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor. 
6. Job growth is slow, the unemployment rate has not changed much, and consumer spending remains resilient; developments in the Middle East bring high uncertainty. 
7. The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing threats, and the boundaries between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury need to be respected. If the Federal Reserve makes politically colored decisions, the market will lose confidence.

Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Powell's Key Remarks: Rates Unchanged, Powell to Remain as Governor After Term Ends

As of April 30, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 98.6% (down from 98.8% prior to the decision), while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 1.4% (down from 1.2% prior to the decision). The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 96.5% (up from 94.6% prior to the decision), with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 3.4% (down from 5.4% prior to the decision). The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in September is 96.1% (up from 92.7% prior to the decision), with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 3.8% (down from 7.2% prior to the decision).

[Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in June at 98.6%]As of April 30, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 98.6% (down from 98.8% prior to the decision), while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 1.4% (down from 1.2% prior to the decision). The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 96.5% (up from 94.6% prior to the decision), with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 3.4% (down from 5.4% prior to the decision). The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in September is 96.1% (up from 92.7% prior to the decision), with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 3.8% (down from 7.2% prior to the decision).

Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in June at 98.6%

On April 30, JP Powers, Chief Investment Officer of Rwa Wealth Partners, stated, "This is the first time in over 30 years that there are so many dissenters; it's truly a crazy time. Milan is somewhat unconventional, as he wishes to further cut rates at this time. I am certain that, with oil prices back above $100, it will be quite difficult for the committee to reach any consensus on this matter. Additionally, with Powell's transition period, pushing for such measures is already quite challenging. Interestingly, the other three members are even reluctant to retain any dovish stance in the statement, which may be the crux of the issue."

[Analyst: Rare Disagreement Emerges Within the Federal Reserve, Achieving Consensus May Be Challenging]On April 30, JP Powers, Chief Investment Officer of Rwa Wealth Partners, stated, "This is the first time in over 30 years that there are so many dissenters; it's truly a crazy time. Milan is somewhat unconventional, as he wishes to further cut rates at this time. I am certain that, with oil prices back above $100, it will be quite difficult for the committee to reach any consensus on this matter. Additionally, with Powell's transition period, pushing for such measures is already quite challenging. Interestingly, the other three members are even reluctant to retain any dovish stance in the statement, which may be the crux of the issue."

Analyst: Rare Disagreement Emerges Within the Federal Reserve, Achieving Consensus May Be Challenging

On April 30, analyst Anstey pointed out that we seem to be in a new realm that requires more time to understand the current situation. It is important to note that the only dissenting opinion regarding the interest rate decision came from Milan, who wishes to lower the rate by 0.25 percentage points. The other three members, Harmack, Kashkari, and Logan, believe that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate. Interestingly, these three members who disagree with the policy stance essentially interpret this statement as leaning towards easing. Because, literally, it is clearly neutral: the committee will adjust its monetary policy stance as necessary based on actual circumstances to guard against risks that may hinder the achievement of the committee's goals. The 'goals' are, of course, to maintain price stability and achieve full employment. However, in my view, these three seem to believe that this statement primarily pertains to the employment aspect of the mandate.

[Analyst: Federal Reserve Appears to Enter New Phase with Complex Divergences]On April 30, analyst Anstey pointed out that we seem to be in a new realm that requires more time to understand the current situation. It is important to note that the only dissenting opinion regarding the interest rate decision came from Milan, who wishes to lower the rate by 0.25 percentage points. The other three members, Harmack, Kashkari, and Logan, believe that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate. Interestingly, these three members who disagree with the policy stance essentially interpret this statement as leaning towards easing. Because, literally, it is clearly neutral: the committee will adjust its monetary policy stance as necessary based on actual circumstances to guard against risks that may hinder the achievement of the committee's goals. The 'goals' are, of course, to maintain price stability and achieve full employment. However, in my view, these three seem to believe that this statement primarily pertains to the employment aspect of the mandate.

Analyst: Federal Reserve Appears to Enter New Phase with Complex Divergences

On April 30, after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, US Treasury yields increased. The Fed noted in its most divisive decision since 1992 that market concerns about inflation are intensifying. The policy statement faced opposition from three officials who argued that the Fed should no longer signal a tendency to lower rates. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically fluctuates in sync with Fed rate expectations, rose by 7.8 basis points to 3.92%, the highest level since March 27.

[US Treasury Yields Rise Following Hawkish Fed Statement]On April 30, after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, US Treasury yields increased. The Fed noted in its most divisive decision since 1992 that market concerns about inflation are intensifying. The policy statement faced opposition from three officials who argued that the Fed should no longer signal a tendency to lower rates. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically fluctuates in sync with Fed rate expectations, rose by 7.8 basis points to 3.92%, the highest level since March 27.

US Treasury Yields Rise Following Hawkish Fed Statement

On April 30, according to the Wall Street Journal, after some hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, Wall Street traders are betting on a possible rate hike by the Fed this year, although the likelihood remains low. CME's interest rate futures data shows that traders believe there is an 11% chance of a rate hike this year, up from 5% earlier that day and 0% on Tuesday, while the chance of a rate cut hovers around 2%.

[Market Pricing Indicates Higher Likelihood of Fed Rate Hike than Cut This Year]On April 30, according to the Wall Street Journal, after some hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, Wall Street traders are betting on a possible rate hike by the Fed this year, although the likelihood remains low. CME's interest rate futures data shows that traders believe there is an 11% chance of a rate hike this year, up from 5% earlier that day and 0% on Tuesday, while the chance of a rate cut hovers around 2%.

Market Pricing Indicates Higher Likelihood of Fed Rate Hike than Cut This Year

On April 30, during his final press conference as Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell told reporters, "I won't see you next time." This remark indicates that at the next policy meeting in mid-June, it will be Kevin Warsh, not Powell, who will attend the post-meeting press conference. This quip also reaffirms Powell's earlier commitment: although he plans to continue serving as a Federal Reserve governor for a while after his term ends in May—due to concerns about the Trump administration's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence—he will not attempt to act as a 'shadow chairman' to undermine Warsh's authority.

[Powell Concludes Final Press Conference with a Quip, Emphasizes Not to Act as 'Shadow Chairman']On April 30, during his final press conference as Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell told reporters, "I won't see you next time." This remark indicates that at the next policy meeting in mid-June, it will be Kevin Warsh, not Powell, who will attend the post-meeting press conference. This quip also reaffirms Powell's earlier commitment: although he plans to continue serving as a Federal Reserve governor for a while after his term ends in May—due to concerns about the Trump administration's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence—he will not attempt to act as a 'shadow chairman' to undermine Warsh's authority.

Powell Concludes Final Press Conference with a Quip, Emphasizes Not to Act as 'Shadow Chairman'

On the 29th, the US Dollar Index rose by 0.32%, closing at 98.956 in the foreign exchange market.

[US Dollar Index Rises 0.32% on the 29th]On the 29th, the US Dollar Index rose by 0.32%, closing at 98.956 in the foreign exchange market.

US Dollar Index Rises 0.32% on the 29th

On April 30, as four companies among the 'Seven Giants' of US stocks released their earnings reports after hours, it appeared that only Alphabet (GOOGL.O) managed to please investors. Alphabet's revenue for the first quarter grew by 22%, approaching $110 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations. The net profit reached $62.6 billion, an 81% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company projected record sales of $403 billion and profits of approximately $132 billion for the fiscal year 2025. Following the better-than-expected performance, Alphabet's stock price rose by 3.9%, with CEO Sundar Pichai unsurprisingly attributing much of the company's growth to its AI investments. Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft also reported strong growth, but their stock prices fell, with Meta experiencing a decline of over 5%. Meta's sales guidance met expectations, and the company also raised its capital expenditure plans for the year, reflecting rising component prices and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs.

[Only Alphabet Rises After Earnings Reports Among 'Seven Giants' of US Stocks]On April 30, as four companies among the 'Seven Giants' of US stocks released their earnings reports after hours, it appeared that only Alphabet (GOOGL.O) managed to please investors. Alphabet's revenue for the first quarter grew by 22%, approaching $110 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations. The net profit reached $62.6 billion, an 81% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company projected record sales of $403 billion and profits of approximately $132 billion for the fiscal year 2025. Following the better-than-expected performance, Alphabet's stock price rose by 3.9%, with CEO Sundar Pichai unsurprisingly attributing much of the company's growth to its AI investments. Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft also reported strong growth, but their stock prices fell, with Meta experiencing a decline of over 5%. Meta's sales guidance met expectations, and the company also raised its capital expenditure plans for the year, reflecting rising component prices and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs.

Only Alphabet Rises After Earnings Reports Among 'Seven Giants' of US Stocks

On April 8, local time, the Israel Defense Forces shelled the southern Lebanese town of Barachit. This attack reportedly occurred following a statement from the office of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The statement indicated that Israel supports a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, but the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. (CCTV News)

[IDF Shells Southern Lebanese Town]On April 8, local time, the Israel Defense Forces shelled the southern Lebanese town of Barachit. This attack reportedly occurred following a statement from the office of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The statement indicated that Israel supports a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, but the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. (CCTV News)

IDF Shells Southern Lebanese Town

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