Wintermute: Crypto selloff accelerated as Fed message shifts and U.S.-Iran talks stall Market-maker Wintermute says crypto markets absorbed a “risk reset” before U.S. equities could react, deepening a selloff that hit Bitcoin and other liquid crypto assets last week. Key points - Timing gap between markets: Crypto, which trades 24/7, moved earlier while U.S. equity prices were muted by the Juneteenth market closure, amplifying the move. - Fed pivot raises caution: The Federal Reserve kept its policy range at 3.50%–3.75% but delivered a shorter statement and removed an easing bias. Officials sounded closer to further rate hikes than cuts, prompting traders to pull back from risk assets, Wintermute said. - Geopolitics added pressure: The failure to finalize an Iran deal forced crypto to price in additional geopolitical risk while equities were closed. - Price action: Bitcoin, which earlier in the week tested near $67,000, slid into the low $60,000s. Wintermute recorded a 3.8% decline for BTC, a 1.2% drop for Ethereum, and roughly flat action across many altcoins. On June 23, BTC briefly hit an intraday low near $62,560 before stabilizing around $62,800. - ETF flows and support levels: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw another $68 million of outflows. Analysts cited in the update view the $62,000 area as near-term support, with the June low near $59,200 as a lower anchor. - Leverage flush: The move was characterized as another deleveraging episode: longs suffered significantly more than shorts, signaling that traders had been overly positioned for a rebound. Ethereum’s break below $2,000 toward the mid-$1,700s was highlighted as a particularly clear weak signal. - Micro buybacks but softer demand: Earlier concerns over a 32 BTC sale from one firm eased after Wintermute noted the same company later bought 1,587 BTC (about $100 million). Additional purchases—520 BTC and a replenished cash reserve—were reported. Still, Wintermute warned that Strategy purchases and ETF inflows now generate less fresh demand than in previous market cycles: “The funnels aren’t turning.” - What’s next: Macro data and diplomacy are the immediate catalysts. May PCE inflation could reshape rate expectations; Qatar-led negotiations over a regional ceasefire could determine whether risk appetite recovers. A softer PCE print might relieve pressure on risk assets, while stronger data would keep rate-hike bets alive. - Caution on rebounds: Wintermute cautioned that any bounce may be a short-lived trade rather than confirmation of a market bottom. Bottom line: Bitcoin’s trajectory is increasingly tied to Fed pricing, ETF demand dynamics, and the outcome of U.S.-Iran diplomacy. Traders are watching whether fresh inflows return—not just whether prices briefly recover from support levels. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
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