Analysis: Bitcoin Has Remained Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for 8 Consecutive Months, Average

On June 24, analyst Darkfost reported that the realized price for short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin is currently around $74,800, with BTC operating below this cost line for eight consecutive months, leaving short-term holders generally under pressure from losses. Currently, STHs are experiencing an average unrealized loss of approximately 14.4%, a significant improvement from the over 34% loss level seen in February of this year. Notably, the STH cost basis has decreased from $95,700 to $74,800, indicating that some short-term holders have continued to accumulate during the downturn, thereby lowering the overall holding cost. During this cycle, STH unrealized profits peaked at 47% in March 2024, while when BTC reached an all-time high in October 2025, this metric was only 11%, showing that market profit levels are significantly weaker than in previous phases. The $74,800 STH cost basis remains a key resistance level. If BTC can reclaim this level, it may indicate a positive shift in market structure; however, until then, this area is more likely to become a sell pressure zone for short-term holders looking to break even.