互联Maestro
06/18 15:40
The Final Flush Before Bitcoin Finds Its Bottom? Bitcoin’s Weak Hands May Already Be Gone.
The 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss shows that the current wave of realized losses is meaningful, but still smaller than the first sell-off of the year. Earlier, the market absorbed roughly -400K BTC in realized losses. Now, despite BTC trading near similar price levels, realized losses are closer to -234K BTC. That divergence matters.
It suggests that the marginal seller is becoming weaker in size. A large part of the panic-driven supply may have already exited during the first decline. In other words, the same price area is no longer producing the same intensity of capitulation.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta confirms a similar message. Selling pressure remains present, but it is not yet reaching the extreme downside levels seen in prior capitulation events. Historically, this kind of structure often appears when the market has already flushed a large portion of weak hands, but still needs one final test to force out the remaining holders trapped in deep unrealized losses.
The 1-year Net Realized Profit/Loss adds the broader context. Previous Bitcoin market bottoms were formed when the yearly sum moved much deeper into realized loss territory. Today, the metric is negative, but not yet at the historical extremes that marked major cycle bottoms.
This does not mean Bitcoin must collapse. It means the market is likely in a late-stage stress phase: weak hands have been reduced, realized loss intensity is fading, but the final confirmation is still missing.
The key question now is whether BTC can stabilize while realized losses continue to decline, or whether one last downside wave is needed to complete the capitulation process.
If losses keep shrinking while price stops making new lows, that would be a strong signal of seller exhaustion. If price breaks lower and realized losses spike again, the market may be entering the final flush before a
Written by MorenoDV_
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