UBS Delays Fed Rate Cut Expectations to 2027, Anticipates Hawkish Signals This Week

On June 16, UBS Global Wealth Management pushed back its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to March and June 2027, no longer anticipating any cuts this year. The firm stated that this move reflects its judgment that this week's meeting will release hawkish signals. UBS now expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in March and June next year, compared to previous forecasts of cuts in December 2026 and March 2027. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision this week, marking the first meeting under new Chair Jerome Powell, with the market widely expecting rates to remain unchanged. UBS Global Wealth Management analysts noted in a report dated June 15, 'Although Powell has previously expressed a more dovish stance, we expect this meeting's tone to be more hawkish, both in the statement and the dot plot.' UBS indicated that major central banks are unlikely to hastily shift to a more dovish policy stance due to the U.S.-Iran agreement. Instead, as developments unfold and data released in the coming months gradually reveal whether energy shocks are triggering a second round of inflationary pressures, central banks are likely to maintain a cautious stance.