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Bitcoin bottom countdown nears 50 days after BTC supply in loss passed 50%
Bitcoin ($BTC) has been counting down to its next bottom for nearly two months, a classic onchain metric suggests.

Key points:

$BTC supply in loss passed 50% for the first time this bear market in early June.

In previous bear markets, that event sparked a countdown to a new $BTC price macro bottom.

Separate data hints that the bull market’s “emotional premium” has now gone.

In its H1 2026 Round-Up report, crypto research company K33 Research flagged more than 50% of the $BTC supply now being held at a loss.

A typical bear-market feature, supply in loss has become a yardstick for progress toward macro bottoms for $BTC/USD.

K33 data shows that once supply in loss passes the 50% mark, the bottom has come no more than 101 days later. Bear markets have provided various time frames, with the shortest bottom “window” lasting just 13 days in 2022.

The 2018 bear market required 23 days to reach its floor, while in 2014, Bitcoin continued to decline for 101 days after the 50% supply-in-loss mark was hit.

In 2026, supply in loss repeated standard bear-market behavior, crossing 50% on June 5. Since then, 42 days have elapsed, making this year’s bottom window Bitcoin’s second-longest ever.

In accompanying commentary, K33 observed that returns over the year following the phenomenon “tend to be very solid.”

Earlier this month, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, estimated that supply in loss was around two months away from levels that correspond to bear-market bottoms.

CryptoQuant data puts supply in loss at 46% as of July 17.




Bitcoin bottom countdown nears 50 days after BTC s

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