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07/25 12:38

Ethereum in the driver’s seat, but for how long?

Ethereum in the driver’s seat, but for how long?

Beyond the overheated ROI and stretched momentum, Ethereum’s % supply in profit adds another layer to the setup. 

With ETH pushing toward $3.7k, over 95% of the supply is now in the green, entering a historically saturated zone that’s typically marked by distribution.

We’ve seen this play out before.

Similar spikes into the 95–100% range (highlighted by the red band), particularly in late December 2024 and early January 2025, lined up with ETH’s sharp Q1 reversal, as profit-taking pressure kicked in.glassnode-studio_eth-percent-supply-in-profit-768x432.png

However, it looks like smart money might be getting ahead of that risk.

Lookonchain tracked two fresh whale wallets, scooping up 58,268 ETH at an average cost basis of $3,680, roughly $212 million in size. That adds to the $18 billion+ in large transfers flowing through the Ethereum network.

But is that enough to lock in a bottom? Not just yet. ETH’s approaching a key inflection zone, and if past cycles are anything to go by, a shakeout or reset could be on the cards before $4k becomes a clean target again.

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