In previous macro cycles, the STH NUPL metric at the 25% level coincided with the peak of speculative euphoria among short-term holders: they began massively taking profits, which restrained or reversed the bullish momentum.

Today, as of July 17, 2025, STH NUPL stands at 13% (compared to 16% at the level of the last ATH), indicating moderate unrealized profit among this cohort and the absence of signs of market overheating.

For the share of unrealized profit to grow to 25%, the current BTC price must break above the $137K mark. This level will be a trigger for mass selling and subsequent correction.