B4Bit

06/10 09:08

Bitcoin will track the global economy, not dollars

Bitcoin will track the global economy, not dollars, says cryptocurrency expert

Blockchain analyst Willy Wu has shared a long-term vision for Bitcoin that separates its value from fiat benchmarks and equates it to a part of the global economy.

According to Wu, Bitcoin could eventually be valued against global GDP rather than the US dollar, which portends a dramatic increase in purchasing power over the next two decades.

Wu argues that Bitcoin could replace gold as the world's preferred hard currency. He estimates that if Bitcoin were to capture a share of global economic value proportional to its fixed supply of 21 million coins, it could reach a value of $20 million per BTC, with significant fluctuations depending on macroeconomic conditions.

His forecast assumes that nominal global GDP will grow at an annual rate of about 7%—a combination of real economic growth (2%) and currency depreciation (5%). Over 20 years, this would push global GDP to $425 trillion, creating the conditions for Bitcoin to act as a hard currency.

In the short term, however, Wu warned of volatile conditions. He noted that Bitcoin is currently burdened by excessive liquidity and speculative trading, which creates the conditions for liquidation-induced volatility. “BTC needs to get rid of the excess before it can climb to new highs,” he said.

Wu stressed that now may not be the ideal time for short-term traders who rely on paper bets, given the heightened risk in the market and the potential for sharp corrections. Despite the short-term uncertainty, he remains firmly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term role in the global financial system.

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