The largest IPO in the history of the STAR Market is coming.
Recently, the Shanghai Stock Exchange website showed that Yangtze Memory's IPO application on the STAR Market has been accepted. It plans to raise 33 billion yuan, surpassing ChangXin Technology's 29.5 billion yuan, setting a new record for the intended fundraising scale on the STAR Market.
ChangXin Technology, which went public a month ago, had an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share, corresponding to an initial market capitalization of about 579.2 billion yuan. On its first trading day, the closing price was 49 yuan per share, corresponding to a market capitalization of 3.28 trillion yuan, securing the top spot in the A-share market by value.
As another leading domestic memory player, is Yangtze Memory the second ChangXin Technology?
Different Playing Fields
As leading domestic memory companies, both Yangtze Memory and ChangXin Technology were founded in 2016, share the same IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturing) business model, and have no controlling shareholder or actual controller.
However, there are clear differences between the two in key dimensions.
From a technology roadmap perspective, according to the prospectuses of both companies, ChangXin Technology focuses on DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory), which requires periodic refresh cycles to maintain stored data. Data is lost immediately upon power loss. It primarily serves as the working memory for electronic devices, handling temporary data read/write functions for the system. Yangtze Memory focuses on NAND Flash (flash memory), which retains data long-term after power loss and supports repeated erasure and writing, widely used in high-capacity scenarios such as solid-state drives, embedded storage, and mobile storage.
Professor Tian Lihui of Nankai University, specializing in finance, told China-Singapore Jingwei that the two companies diverge in both their foundational DNA and their capital narratives. The most fundamental differences lie in their technology paths and industrial positioning.
The market size gap between the sectors the two companies operate in is also significant.
According to a May 2026 forecast by TrendForce, a globally renowned semiconductor and memory industry research and consulting firm, the global DRAM market value in 2026 is estimated to be about $618.7 billion, while NAND Flash is about $270.6 billion, with the former being 2.3 times the latter. In 2027, DRAM is expected to increase to $903.3 billion, and NAND Flash to about $379.4 billion, with the gap still widening.
Image Source: TrendForce Official Website
In terms of competitive landscape, according to data from Omdia cited in ChangXin Technology's prospectus, based on sales estimates, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology held market shares of 33.96%, 34.48%, and 23.41% respectively in the 2025 global DRAM market, with a combined share exceeding 90%. ChangXin Technology ranked fourth with a 7.67% market share. The prospectus states that ChangXin Technology is China's largest, most technologically advanced, and most comprehensively positioned integrated DRAM design and manufacturing enterprise.
Yangtze Memory's global competitors include the top five: Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Kioxia, Micron Technology, and SanDisk.
According to the latest Memory and Storage Market Tracker report for Q2 2026 released by Counterpoint Research, Samsung maintained its lead with a 25% shipment share, followed closely by SK Hynix at 22%. Yangtze Memory jumped to third place with a 14% market share, slightly surpassing Kioxia, with Micron ranking fifth.
Q2 2026 NAND Shipment Market Share Image Source: Counterpoint Official Website
However, Counterpoint Research also points out that shipment volume does not directly translate to revenue. Although Yangtze Memory ranked third in shipments this quarter, its revenue ranked fifth, lagging behind Micron and Kioxia. The reason is that its product portfolio remains concentrated in consumer-grade applications, with a relatively lower proportion of higher-priced data center enterprise-grade SSDs (Solid State Drives).
Professor Tian Lihui notes that the global DRAM market, which ChangXin Technology focuses on, is highly monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. As the world's fourth-largest supplier and China's only DRAM IDM enterprise, ChangXin Technology has been awarded a scarcity premium for breaking the monopoly. In contrast, Yangtze Memory's main business is NAND Flash, focusing on long-term data storage. The technical barriers are relatively lower, the profitability ceiling is shorter, and the global competitive landscape is more fragmented.
Can the Myth Be Replicated?
On July 27, the first day of ChangXin Technology's listing, its market capitalization soared from 579.2 billion yuan to 3.28 trillion yuan, surging over 5 times. Can this myth be repeated with Yangtze Memory?
According to the prospectus, the number of shares to be issued by Yangtze Memory accounts for 10% to 12% of the total shares after the issuance. Based on its current fundraising target, this corresponds to a company valuation of approximately 275 billion yuan to 330 billion yuan.
In Tian Lihui's view, the probability of Yangtze Memory replicating ChangXin Technology's sharp rise on its first trading day is extremely low, and its IPO may face structural cooling.
He points out that when ChangXin Technology went public, the AI memory narrative was at its peak, with overseas funds frantically buying. However, the current memory sector has retreated nearly 30% from its highs, and market risk appetite has significantly declined.
In terms of performance, Yangtze Memory showed strong results in Q1 2026, with revenue of 47.042 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.379 billion yuan. Its single-quarter profit was higher than ChangXin Technology's 24.762 billion yuan. The prospectus shows that the average unit price of Yangtze Memory's NAND Flash products in Q1 increased by 172.72% compared to the full year of 2025. The gross margin of NAND Flash products rose from 36.66% for the full year 2025 to 78.73%.
According to a report released by TrendForce on July 30, AI applications will still dominate memory demand in 2027. For DRAM, due to the continuous crowding out of capacity by HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and strong demand from AI servers, the procurement momentum for memory used in CPUs (Central Processing Units) and HBM continues to increase, maintaining a tight supply situation in the market, with prices expected to remain strong. For NAND Flash, with the concentrated release of new production capacity and persistently weak end-consumer demand, supply is expected to become more relaxed in the second half of 2027, potentially facing price correction pressure.
From a fundamental perspective, Tian Lihui believes that while Yangtze Memory's profitability in Q1 is comparable to or even slightly better than ChangXin Technology's, its scarcity and strategic value within the AI industry chain are not as high as those of DRAM and HBM. The key challenge lies in whether a reasonable price can be set during the inquiry process. If the IPO valuation is too aggressive, it cannot be ruled out that the stock may face pressure to fall below the issue price at some point after listing. If the pricing leaves a safety margin, it might instead gain recognition from rational capital during this period of market cool-down.
Professor Li Guoping from the Central University of Finance and Economics told China-Singapore Jingwei that the impact of sentiment on a company's value is short-term. In the long run, fundamentals are the determining factor for a company's value. Whether Yangtze Memory's market capitalization can surpass that of ChangXin Technology ultimately depends on its subsequent performance and whether it can achieve breakthroughs in the HBM field.
In Li Guoping's view, there is not much difference in the domestic market position between Yangtze Memory and ChangXin Technology in China. Although their products differ, their long-term investment value is comparable. Although the memory sector has seen some correction, market sentiment remains relatively high, so the risk of Yangtze Memory's IPO facing a cold reception should not be significant.
This article is from the WeChat public account "China-Singapore Jingwei" (ID: jwview), author: Xie Jingwen, editor: Li Xiaoxuan
