The market is undergoing a comprehensive reset, spanning from regulatory expectations to capital structure.
The latest analysis from Xinhuo Research Institute indicates that Bitcoin faced overall pressure last week due to the combined influence of multiple factors – the SEC abruptly canceled a scheduled meeting on crypto regulatory rules, postponing the topic of tokenization's "innovation exemption" without setting a new date; the spot Bitcoin ETF switched from two consecutive weeks of net inflows to an outflow of approximately $390 million; the Coinbase Bitcoin price index continued to show a negative premium, with the Fear and Greed Index retreating to around 34. These signals, when combined, point to a core conclusion: the market is awaiting the next anchor point of certainty.
And this anchor point may arrive this very week.
From a policy perspective, the White House is expected to host a meeting with executives from the crypto and prediction markets industry on August 19, with senior officials from the SEC and CFTC likely participating; the CFTC will hold its inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on August 20; discussions related to the *CLARITY Act* may also continue to advance in September. Xinhuo Research Institute believes that the aforementioned events are highly likely to release positive policy signals. Should constructive statements materialize, they could provide marginal repair to market confidence in the short term.
The macro landscape is also shifting towards easing. Recent cooling inflation and weakening retail data in the US have significantly dampened market expectations for a September rate hike, with the probability dropping to around 33%. Currently, FedWatch indicates that the first potential rate hike this year might not occur until December 9. However, on the other hand, although the US-Iran conflict hasn't escalated significantly, the impact on global refining centers has led to tight supplies of refined products and rising oil prices, which still requires ongoing observation.
At the industry level, there is a structural change that cannot be ignored – capital is flowing en masse into the AI sector. Financing for AI infrastructure construction is further tightening the overall liquidity in the crypto market, which serves as a significant backdrop for the current market's relative sluggishness. Going forward, it will be essential to continuously monitor when AI investment might cool down and when the macro environment might broadly ease.
On the trading front, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of consolidation and bottom-building following its retreat from highs. The daily EMA7 is around $63,329, and EMA20 is around $63,807, with the price trading below both short-term moving averages; the RSI14 is around 44, positioned in a neutral-to-weak range but not yet in oversold territory; volatility below the Bollinger Band's middle band is moderate. Key resistance levels are at $65,000 / $65,800, with key support levels at $62,500 / $62,000.
Xinhuo Research Institute believes that, against the backdrop of gradually materializing regulatory catalysts, the current range could potentially form a phased bottoming area.
