Benjamin Cowen, a leading cryptocurrency market analyst, analyzed the latest technical charts and macroeconomic events affecting Ethereum ($ETH). He highlighted Ethereum's recent strong bounce, sharing his insights on potential market lows and the critical risks this crypto asset will face in the upcoming period.
Analyzing Ethereum's price structure using regression channels and fair value models, Cowen noted that the asset reacted to its lows around $1500. Recalling that similar instances of touching the lower boundary of the regression band occurred in past cycles, the analyst pointed out that the current fair value zone for Ethereum is between $2300 and $2400. However, he added that for the upward momentum to be sustained, the price needs to decisively break through key technical resistance levels, such as the 200-day moving average.
In addition to analyzing Ethereum's individual metrics, special attention was paid to the $ETH/BTC pair, showcasing its strength relative to Bitcoin. Cowen stated that the pair's breakout above the 20-month moving average is an important technical signal, and this level needs to be consolidated. Referring to past false breakouts, the expert noted that to confirm a rally, Ethereum must maintain its position relative to Bitcoin over the next 1-2 months.
Cowen also touched upon the impact of macroeconomic risks on the cryptocurrency market, stating that a potential correction in the S&P 500 index would directly affect Ethereum's price. While a 10 percent drop in the stock index might be limited to forming a higher low in Ethereum, the analyst warned investors that a deeper 20 percent drop in the stock market could trigger sharp corrections in $ETH, exceeding 50%. Highlighting the second half of the year, particularly the end of the third and fourth quarters, Cowen pointed out that negative signals from the macroeconomic front could lead to a final wave of decline in the cryptocurrency market.
*This is not investment advice.
