What to Expect from the Crypto Market: How the Conflict Between Trump and the Fed Will Affect Prices

RBK-cryptoPublicado a 2026-01-12Actualizado a 2026-01-12

Resumen

RBC Crypto presents an analysis by Anatoly Radchenko on the state of the cryptocurrency market as of January 12th. The key focus is the conflict between former US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates to provide cheaper credit, but Powell is resisting, leading to a reported criminal investigation. This political tension is causing the US dollar to weaken and is boosting gold and silver prices. Such pressure on the Fed and broader geopolitical risks (involving China-Taiwan, Iran-Israel, Venezuela, Cuba) are generally unfavorable for cryptocurrencies, as Middle East escalations have historically not benefited the asset class. Regarding market performance, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $90.5k, down 2.5% for the week. It is underperforming compared to Ethereum and Solana. Large holders continue to sell, and there is uncertainty around purchases by entities like Michael Saylor's Strategy company. Privacy coins like Monero (XMR) are seeing interest, but their performance is tied to the overall market strength of BTC and ETH. While positive narratives exist, such as Wells Fargo's $300 million Bitcoin purchase and rumors of crypto trading on Elon Musk's X platform, the analyst assesses the overall picture as negative. He states there is no strong catalyst for a rapid price increase, despite some investors accumulating BTC. The market lacks a convincing reason for a significant rally in the near term.

"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice; the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that may lead to financial losses.

The current state of the crypto market and the factors that will influence cryptocurrency prices in the coming days—all of this was discussed by Anatoly Radchenko, author of the Telegram channel "Financial Circle," in a new video on January 12, recorded specifically for participants of the RBC Crypto Forum.

"Not in Favor of Cryptocurrency"

Radchenko called the most important news of recent days the statements by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell that a criminal investigation has been launched against him because the Fed is not lowering the key interest rate as US President Donald Trump wants, while Trump claims he has no involvement in this investigation. The expert noted that against this backdrop, the US dollar is falling, while gold and silver prices are rising.

"Trump has long said that Powell is too slow to lower the rate at a time when America, to become great, needs cheap credit, needs to build factories... But according to market estimates, the Fed does not plan to lower the rate in January," the analyst said.

The market "does not like" it when pressure is put on the Fed chairman, Radchenko noted. He pointed out that the American market is slightly down, but this is more of a rotation of funds, with investors moving capital from one sector to others. Big tech is being sold off slightly, while oil and the real sector are growing a bit, the analyst said. He added that some market participants are buying what hasn't yet risen in price, while others are trying to hedge against potential risks.

And there are many risks, according to Radchenko—China and Taiwan, Iran and Israel, Venezuela, Cuba, and in all these situations—the US is involved. Radchenko recalled that "as we have already seen several years ago, any escalation of conflict in the Middle East or with China, as a rule, is not in favor of cryptocurrency."

What's Happening in the Crypto Market

Radchenko noted several new cryptocurrencies he is tracking and also drew attention to the rise of Monero (XMR) and the pullback of Zcash (ZEC). In the analyst's opinion, there is interest in privacy coins—"everyone wants private money." Nevertheless, if Bitcoin and Ethereum do not rise, then anonymous cryptocurrencies will also perform very weakly, the expert believes.

According to him, among the major coins, Solana is performing better, "Ether" looks good, and Bitcoin is the weakest. Uncertainty remains regarding Bitcoin purchases by Michael Saylor's company Strategy; large holders continue to sell, and speculators are trying to find a new narrative for growth, Radchenko believes.

As of 14:30 Moscow time on January 12, the price of BTC is fluctuating around $90.5K, the same as 24 hours ago. Over the week, Bitcoin has fallen by 2.5%.

"Many Narratives, But No Strong One"

The purchase of $300 million worth of Bitcoin by the major US bank Wells Fargo, rumors about the possible introduction of crypto trading on Elon Musk's social network X—there are quite a few positive narratives, says Radchenko. Nevertheless, in his assessment, the overall picture is negative, and there is no strong catalyst for growth.

Bitcoin started the year very well, and some investors assume that, against the backdrop of money depreciation, rising stocks, and prices for metals and commodities, the leading cryptocurrency will continue to rise, the analyst says. But he also noted that active selling of BTC is still occurring during the American trading session.

Some market participants are possibly "buying Bitcoin little by little," the expert believes. However, he thinks there is no convincing reason for a rapid rise in the cryptocurrency's price.

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Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main reason for the current negative sentiment in the cryptocurrency market according to Anatoly Radchenko?

AThe main reason is the political conflict between former US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has created market uncertainty and is generally unfavorable for cryptocurrency.

QHow did the expert, Radchenko, describe the performance of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum?

AHe stated that among the major coins, Solana is performing better, Ethereum looks good, and Bitcoin is the weakest.

QWhat geopolitical risks did the analyst mention that could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market?

AHe mentioned the conflicts and tensions involving China and Taiwan, Iran and Israel, Venezuela, and Cuba, noting that any escalation in these areas, which involve the US, is typically not favorable for cryptocurrency.

QWhat was the price of Bitcoin at the time of the report on January 12th, and what was its weekly change?

AThe price of Bitcoin was fluctuating around $90.5 thousand, and it had fallen by 2.5% over the previous week.

QDespite several positive narratives, why does the analyst believe there is no strong catalyst for a rapid price increase in cryptocurrencies?

AHe believes there is no convincing reason for a rapid rise because, overall, the market picture is negative, with active selling of BTC during the US trading session and a lack of a powerful growth stimulus.

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