Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | DingDang (@XiaMiPP)
On January 20, MicroStrategy (MSTR) once again disclosed an acquisition of 22,305 bitcoins, valued at approximately $2.13 billion. This marks the largest single purchase by MicroStrategy since 2025.
Over the past few months, MicroStrategy's stock price has fallen continuously from its high of $457, with a decline nearing 200%. Skepticism surrounding MicroStrategy has also intensified. From high leverage and refinancing capabilities to the transmission mechanism between Bitcoin price volatility and stock price, almost all negative narratives have been revisited. Particularly after the mNAV fell below 1, voices criticizing MSTR have been incessant.
Amid this skepticism, a widely circulated article titled "The Fed vs. The Treasury: The Currency War Behind Bitcoin's Plunge" even compared MicroStrategy to a "Bitcoin central bank," suggesting it is caught in a博弈 (game) between the traditional financial system (the Fed, Wall Street, JPMorgan) and the emerging system (the Treasury, stablecoins, Bitcoin-collateralized financing), and accused institutions like JPMorgan of systematically shorting MSTR through methods like delayed settlements and options market suppression.
Simultaneously, index provider MSCI signaled that it might remove MSTR from its indices. If this happens, it could theoretically trigger passive selling of approximately $8.8 billion; MicroStrategy's own calculations also show that, in extreme scenarios, it might trigger $2.8 billion in stock liquidations.
Panic seems to be escalating...... While the market worried about whether it would "sell Bitcoin" or "be able to refinance again," MicroStrategy chose to act in the clearest and most powerful manner, embodying the label of a staunch Bitcoin believer.
The Bottom Is Not a Price, But a Moment When Certain Behaviors Begin to Appear
In an article published on December 3rd titled "$1.44 Billion Dividend Reserve Fund Landed, Stock Price Plunged 10% Instead, What Is MicroStrategy's Real Problem?", Odaily Planet Daily pointed out: MicroStrategy's highly concentrated asset structure, reliance on capital market refinancing, and valuation model deeply tied to Bitcoin's price are its endogenous genes. Precisely because of this, when market trends reverse, these structural characteristics do not "suddenly fail"; instead, they amplify volatility more drastically. The rapid price decline, in turn, reinforces the pessimistic narrative, causing risks to be magnified and repeatedly discussed on an emotional level.
Therefore, when almost everyone is extremely bearish and the news is full of negative reports, it often means that the bad news might be getting digested, or may even already be digested. This is why Buffett's quote, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful," is repeatedly cited.
Thus, what is worth observing in the market is not whether these negatives are valid, but rather, whether 'lone brave' investors choosing to go long on MSTR have already emerged at the most extreme point of sentiment, while the bad news still persists.
The answer is: Yes, and there's more than one type.
Vanguard Group: Institutional Funds Begin to Intervene
Vanguard is one of the world's largest asset management companies, with assets under management exceeding $12 trillion. Since the beginning of 2026, two of its index funds have successively disclosed purchases of MSTR, with a combined increase of approximately $707.5 million.
It is important to emphasize that this is not an active expression of a bullish stance, as most of Vanguard's assets are adjusted automatically based on changes in index constituents, meaning the current buying is likely driven by passive index tracking requirements.
On January 20, the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VVIAX) disclosed its first purchase of MSTR stock, totaling 1.23 million shares, valued at approximately $202.5 million. This is a value-oriented index fund focused on large-cap companies considered undervalued by the market, with core screening criteria including low P/E ratio, P/B ratio, and higher dividend yield, among other value characteristics.
The same situation also appeared in another mid-cap index fund, the Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VMCIX). The fund disclosed its purchase of 2.91 million shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $505 million. MSTR's continued market cap growth made it eligible for inclusion in the mid-cap index, forcing the fund to increase its holdings to match the index weight.
Overall, Vanguard's two purchases are likely mostly due to the tracking behavior of index funds rather than active investment. But it is precisely in this inflow of "viewless" capital that a key change is occurring: MSTR is being systematically incorporated into the traditional asset allocation system, becoming a compliant vehicle for Bitcoin risk exposure.
Pension Funds' Exploration: The Signal Behind Small Positions
In the more conservative realm of pension funds, the Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) disclosed on December 31, 2025, that it held 17,900 shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $3.1 million, accounting for 0.02% of its roughly $16 billion in assets.
This is not an aggressive allocation; in fact, the position is extremely small.
But LASERS is the retirement system for public employees in Louisiana, managing retirement assets for over 100,000 state employees (including teachers and other public workers), with a total size of approximately $15.6 billion. The fund's investment portfolio is primarily concentrated in US large-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. The appearance of MSTR in such a portfolio, can we consider it as: Indirectly gaining Bitcoin exposure through a public company structure is beginning to be seen as a discussable, testable option by some state-level public funds. Although LASERS's holding of MSTR is small, it represents a cautious and preliminary interest in crypto assets.
When Active Management Funds Choose to Stand on the Other Side
Unlike passive index funds, the choices of active management funds are closer to a direct judgment of risk and return.
At the end of Q4 2025, globally renowned quantitative trading and market-making firm Jane Street Group disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 51.72%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 11.0588 million to 16.7784 million, while simultaneously holding a large call options position.
In the same quarter, Capital International Investors also disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 713.07%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 1.5589 million to 12.6749 million.
Furthermore, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his core trading strategy this quarter was going long on MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, using them as high-leverage tools to bet on Bitcoin's trajectory.
Several asset management firms, including Bernstein, TD Cowen, and The Benchmark Company, also maintained their Buy ratings on MSTR. For instance, TD Cowen stated that although short-term yields are under pressure, related metrics are expected to improve in fiscal year 2027 as Bitcoin prices recover.
Finally
CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten proposed a noteworthy perspective: In this cycle, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has absorbed about 75% of the drawdown, thereby allowing Bitcoin itself to avoid a decline of the same magnitude, as volatility was transferred from spot Bitcoin to MSTR common stock.
Simultaneously, Michael Saylor's large-scale stock issuance at around 1x mNAV essentially acted as the ultimate risk absorber. At this valuation level, new incoming risk was transferred to investors willing to buy MSTR at that price level, rather than continuing to pressure the Bitcoin spot market, thus somewhat inhibiting the formation of a bear market.
The significance of this perspective lies in redefining the relationship between MSTR and Bitcoin. MSTR is no longer just a high-leverage proxy for Bitcoin; in the current market structure, it is gradually evolving into an intermediary layer that bears, transmits, and releases Bitcoin's volatility. Due to its stock having higher liquidity, mature short-selling mechanisms, and rich options tools, when market risk appetite declines, investors might prefer to express their risk assessment of Bitcoin by selling or hedging MSTR, rather than directly selling Bitcoin spot.
Of course, these institutions and individuals choosing to go long on MSTR may not necessarily be correct. But their very existence is worth serious observation. Because the structural bottom of the market is often not born after sentiment improves, but is born at the moment when sentiment remains extreme, yet some have already chosen to act contrarily.
And observing investor behavior regarding MSTR at this stage is essentially also observing how they view Bitcoin's risk, expectations, and cycle position.
