Trading Moment: Can BTC Break Through $100K Again Amid Geopolitical Shocks? Can Copper and Aluminum Take Over from Gold and Silver?

marsbitPublicado a 2026-01-05Actualizado a 2026-01-05

Resumen

Amid significant geopolitical shocks in early 2026, including the U.S. military action in Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro, Bitcoin demonstrates resilience, holding above $90,000 with a 5.5% year-to-date increase. Analysts suggest a high probability of BTC surpassing $100,000 in Q1, supported by strong ETF inflows. Ethereum remains stable around $3,150, with key resistance at $3,300. Precious metals like gold and silver see gains, while copper and aluminum are projected to outperform in 2026. Meme coins and AI-related tokens also rally, with PEPE surging over 70%. Regulatory attention arises due to insider trading suspicions in prediction markets linked to Venezuela event. Key upcoming events include Trump’s policy meeting and NVIDIA’s CES keynote.

Daily key market review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Overview

As the second quarter (Q2) of the 21st century's third decade begins, the macro landscape faced a major geopolitical shock early in 2026. The U.S. launched a military operation codenamed "Absolute Resolve" against Venezuela and arrested President Maduro, rapidly escalating geopolitical risks. Although markets feared supply disruptions, oil prices reacted relatively mildly given global oversupply and Venezuela's output accounting for only about 1% of global production. Gold returned to $4,400, while silver, platinum, and other precious metals rose over 3%.

Additionally, CITIC Securities released its 2026 outlook report, stating that 2026 is a year to "consolidate foundations and launch strategic counteroffenses" in the "15th Five-Year Plan." Driven by fiscal and monetary "dual easing" and efforts to boost domestic demand, GDP growth is expected to be around 5%. For capital markets, the A-share bull market is likely to continue but with slower gains. Commodities (copper, aluminum), under the resonance of "anti-fragility" and major trends, are expected to take over from 2025's standout performers, gold and silver, becoming the most eye-catching assets in global pricing for 2026. However, caution is advised regarding potential阶段性 corrections in the tech sector, with a focus on new energy, defense, and non-ferrous metals. For Hong Kong stocks, market activity is expected to further ignite under the impetus of "new four bulls" and the Fed's rate-cut cycle. Globally, although U.S. Treasury yields and inflation are expected to remain high, the Sino-U.S. rivalry is shifting from tariff confrontations to tech security contests, making the AI industry chain worth long-term tracking.

Bitcoin showed strong resilience at the start of 2026, rising for five consecutive days despite geopolitical turmoil, stabilizing above $90,000. ETFs recorded a net inflow of $471.3 million on the first trading day. On-chain analyst Murphy noted that the concentration of BTC筹码 within 5% of the spot price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% with a slow price increase. URPD data showed effective support formed by 822,000 BTC at $87,000, with an expected reasonable fluctuation range between $92,000 and $104,000. Technically, Ted pointed out that the SMA200 is at $106,751, making a breakthrough above $100,000 in Q1 2026 highly probable, and there is a gap at $88,200 on CME. Crypto Auris warned that a drop below $87,000 could lead to a retreat to the $84,000 range. Although CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, warned that based on moving averages, it might have entered a bear market with a bottom between $56,000 and $60,000, institutional sentiment is generally optimistic. Charles Schwab is bullish on 2026 performance, Ark Invest's Zach Pandl predicts new all-time highs in the first half, and a Forbes article indicated that 2026 price predictions are concentrated between $120,000 and $170,000. Traders Phyrex and Lennaert Snyder believe that as institutions return post-holiday, market liquidity will recover.

For Ethereum, ETFs recorded a net inflow of $174.5 million on the first day, with prices hovering around $3,150. Analyst Killa noted that ETH is in a stable zone, tending to consolidate or close higher in January and February. Daan Crypto Trades identified $3,300 as a key resistance level for a bullish reversal, with major support below at $2,600. Man of Bitcoin analyzed that ETH faces resistance in the $3,094 to $3,291 range and will follow Bitcoin's "orange route." Despite recovery expectations, some early optimistic predictions failed. Synthetix founder Kain Warwick lost a $50,000 bet because ETH did not reach $25,000 in 2025 and has lowered his 2026 target to $10,000. Previous $10,000 predictions by Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes were also not realized.

In the crypto market, the Venezuela situation caused剧烈 fluctuations and regulatory attention in the prediction market Polymarket. According to Lookonchain tracking, three mysterious wallets heavily bet on Maduro's ouster hours before his arrest, profiting over $630,000. One address invested only $34,000 and made nearly $410,000, raising insider trading concerns. In response, U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres plans to propose the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act" to prohibit officials from using non-public information in such trades. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Treasuries data shows Venezuela has held Bitcoin since December 31, 2022, with a current balance of 240 BTC worth approximately $22.33 million. However, other analysts estimate it has about $60 billion in Bitcoin and USDT "shadow reserves." With the regime change, key figure Alex Saab, who holds the private keys, has become a focus.

The altcoin market is also active, with most altcoins rising alongside Bitcoin. PEPE has surged over 70% year-to-date, prompting whale James Wynn to recently open a 10x leveraged long position. Additionally, old Meme coins like BONK, BOME, FLOKI, WIF, and NEIRO followed suit, with Ponke and CZ's Dog rising over 70% in the past 24 hours.

Perhaps due to the annual "tech春晚" CES and speeches by tech leaders like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and AMD's Lisa Su, AI-related tokens also普遍上涨, with VIRTUAL, FET, and RENDER up over 10%.

2. Key Data (As of January 5, 13:00 HKT)

(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

  • Bitcoin: $92,454 (year-to-date +5.5%), daily spot trading volume $38.79 billion
  • Ethereum: $3,152 (year-to-date +6.2%), daily spot trading volume $17.45 billion
  • Fear & Greed Index: 26 (Fear)
  • Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
  • Market Dominance: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.1%
  • Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, BONK
  • 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 50.66% / 49.34%
  • Sector Performance: Most crypto sectors rose, Meme sector up 6.2%, AI sector up 5.7%
  • 24-hour Liquidation Data: 76,848 people liquidated globally, total liquidation amount $210 million, including BTC $65.91 million, ETH $40.45 million, SOL $9.70 million

3. ETF Flows (As of January 2)

  • Bitcoin ETF: +$471 million, BlackRock's IBIT led with net inflow of $287 million
  • Ethereum ETF: +$174 million, Grayscale's ETHE led with net inflow of $53.6861 million
  • XRP ETF: +$13.59 million

4. Today's Outlook

  • Zama OG NFT claim portal opens on January 5
  • Trump to attend policy meeting on January 6 at 4:30 AM
  • Binance Alpha to list Brevis (BREV)
  • Hyperliquid co-founder: 1.2 million HYPE tokens to be allocated to team members after unlock on January 6
  • South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to visit China from January 4 to 7
  • U.S. court confirms Maduro to appear in New York court on January 6 at 1:00 Beijing time
  • CES media day, Nvidia CEO speech (January 6, 5:00)
  • Ethena (ENA) to unlock approximately 171 million tokens at 15:00 Beijing time on January 5, representing 2.37% of circulating supply, worth about $42 million
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock approximately 12.46 million tokens at 08:00 Beijing time on January 6, representing 3.61% of circulating supply, worth about $313 million

Top 100 coins by market cap today, biggest gainers: Virtuals Protocol up 18%, ASI Alliance up 14.5%, Render up 13.7%, Pepe up 8.2%, SPX6900 up 6.4%.

5. Hot News

  • Data: HYPE, ENA, APT, and other tokens to see large unlocks, with HYPE unlock worth about $313 million
  • Weekly Preview | Solana生态 crypto derivatives exchange Ranger public sale; U.S. BLS to release December employment data
  • Venezuela holds 240 BTC, analysts estimate Bitcoin "shadow reserves" may exceed 600,000
  • Memecoin sector market cap up 23% weekly, trading volume surged 300%
  • Spot gold back above $4,400, silver breaks $76/oz
  • Infinex public sale only raised $491,000 so far, 90.17% remaining
  • U.S. lawmakers propose bill to ban officials from "insider trading" in prediction markets
  • Six contracts betting on "Maduro's ouster" in prediction market total $56.6 million
  • SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic plan IPOs in 2026, potentially one of history's most significant listing waves
  • Bitmine新增 stakes over 49,000 ETH, total stakes exceed 590,000 ETH
  • Digital RMB tops Baidu热搜: interest on活期 balances, fundamentally different from WeChat/Alipay wallets
  • James Wynn opens 10x leveraged PEPE long position
  • Ethereum treasury company Quantum Solutions discloses ETH holdings increased to ~5,418
  • Helium founder: to stop HNT token buybacks due to冷淡 market response
  • Whale holding ETH for four years swaps 14,145 ETH for 492 WBTC
  • Grayscale research head: four reasons may drive Bitcoin to new highs in H1 2026
  • Binance to add observation tags for ACA, D, DATA, and FLOW
  • Data: Gold rose ~65% in 2025 with over 50 new highs, silver rose ~150%

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main geopolitical event mentioned at the beginning of 2026 that impacted global markets?

AThe United States launched a military operation called 'Absolute Determination' against Venezuela and arrested President Maduro, pushing geopolitical risks to a climax.

QAccording to CITIC Securities' 2026 outlook, which assets are expected to outperform after gold and silver?

AResources such as copper and aluminum are expected to take over from the strong performance of gold and silver in 2025 and become the most eye-catching globally priced assets in 2026.

QWhat is the key support level for Bitcoin mentioned by on-chain analyst Murphy?

AURPD data shows that 820,000 BTC at $87,000 form an effective support level for Bitcoin.

QWhich meme coin has seen a surge of over 70% since the beginning of the year, attracting a whale to open a 10x leveraged long position?

APEPE has risen over 70% since the beginning of the year, attracting whale James Wynn to open a 10x leveraged long position.

QWhat major legislation is U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres planning to propose in response to the Polymarket activity surrounding the Venezuela event?

AU.S. Representative Ritchie Torres plans to propose the '2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act' to prohibit officials from using non-public information to participate in such trading.

Lecturas Relacionadas

The Exquisite Self-Interest of Former OpenAI CTO Murati: Personally Handing Over the Knife and Then Being the First to Seek Reconciliation

Court documents from Elon Musk's lawsuit reveal OpenAI's former CTO, Mira Murati, played a central and seemingly self-interested role in Sam Altman's November 2023 ouster and reinstatement. As early as 2022, she complained to Altman about his shifting priorities and pressure to prioritize revenue. By 2023, she privately supplied co-founder Ilya Sutskever with extensive internal evidence against Altman, which became a key 52-page memo for the board. She was appointed interim CEO after Altman's firing and informed Microsoft. However, text messages show Murati simultaneously relayed the board's stance to Altman while secretly urging Microsoft's CEO to help reverse the decision. Once employee backlash mounted, she refused to publicly defend the board's move she helped engineer. She then became the first signatory on the employee petition demanding the board resign and reinstate Altman. A former board member testified Murati was "waiting to see which way the wind blew," not realizing "she herself was the wind." The evidence depicts her actions as consistently aligning with her own interests throughout the crisis.

marsbitHace 4 min(s)

The Exquisite Self-Interest of Former OpenAI CTO Murati: Personally Handing Over the Knife and Then Being the First to Seek Reconciliation

marsbitHace 4 min(s)

AI Inference Bills Soar, Shopify and Roblox Warn: Savings from Layoffs Not Enough to Cover Chip Costs

The 2026 Q1 earnings season reveals a paradox: while AI helps companies freeze hiring and boost productivity, the soaring costs of AI inference—token consumption and GPU depreciation—are eroding savings from workforce reductions. Shopify reported that AI now writes over 50% of its code, enabling significant output with stable headcount. However, LLM costs, driven by heavy usage of its AI assistant Sidekick, are pressuring its subscription毛利率. Similarly, Roblox attributed a quarter of its full-year利润率下调 to increased AI investment. The article highlights a broader industry imbalance: combined AI capital expenditure for Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google is projected to reach $725 billion in 2026, vastly outpacing potential savings from layoffs. For instance, Meta's planned裁员 would save about $2.4 billion annually, offsetting only ~12% of its incremental AI depreciation. While底层 model and chip suppliers like NVIDIA maintain high profitability, application-layer companies face a pricing squeeze. Their strategies now involve要么 tightly linking AI costs to user engagement (like Shopify) or introducing fees for advanced AI features (like Roblox), as covering AI bills with裁员 savings alone is financially unsustainable.

marsbitHace 14 min(s)

AI Inference Bills Soar, Shopify and Roblox Warn: Savings from Layoffs Not Enough to Cover Chip Costs

marsbitHace 14 min(s)

Has Hook Summer Really Arrived? sato, Lo0p, FLOOD Ignite the New Narrative of Uniswap v4

"Hook Summer" Arrives? Sato, Lo0p, FLOOD Ignite Uniswap v4 Narrative Amidst a slight market recovery, attention within the Ethereum ecosystem has shifted to Meme coins built on Uniswap v4's Hook protocol. Following ASTEROID, tokens like sato, sat1, Lo0p, and FLOOD have become market focal points, with market caps ranging from millions to tens of millions, bringing concentrated liquidity to a narrative-dry market. Uniswap v4 Hooks are "plugin smart contracts" that allow developers to inject custom logic at key points in a liquidity pool's lifecycle (initialization, adding/removing liquidity, swaps, etc.), making the AMM programmable. Recent representative projects include: * **sato**: Market cap peaked over $38M; uses a v4 curve mechanism for minting/burning, locking ETH as reserve. * **sat1**: Market cap briefly exceeded $10M, positioning as an "optimized sato," but later declined significantly. * **Lo0p**: Market cap neared $6.6M; a "lending AMM protocol" allowing users to borrow ETH against deposited LO0P tokens without immediate selling pressure. * **FLOOD**: Market cap approached $6M; channels trading reserves into Aave v3 to generate yield, which is retained in the pool. The emergence of these Hook-based tokens could drive long-term growth for the Uniswap ecosystem by attracting users and liquidity to v4 pools. Combined with Uniswap's activated fee switch (partially used to burn UNI), the long-term outlook for UNI appears positive. However, short-term UNI price appreciation is not directly guaranteed. Factors include the sustainability and lifecycle of these new tokens, their price volatility, overall market conditions, and regulatory pressures. Currently, Uniswap v4's TVL ($595M) lags behind v3 and v2, indicating Hook adoption still requires time to mature. In summary, the Hook ecosystem serves as "long-term nourishment" for UNI, but acts more as a "catalyst" than a direct "booster" in the short term. Note: These are early-stage experimental tokens and may carry unknown risks.

marsbitHace 24 min(s)

Has Hook Summer Really Arrived? sato, Lo0p, FLOOD Ignite the New Narrative of Uniswap v4

marsbitHace 24 min(s)

Has Hook Summer Truly Arrived? sato, Lo0p, FLOOD Ignite the New Uniswap v4 Narrative

With the broader market showing signs of recovery, a new wave of interest has emerged around Ethereum-based meme coins. Following ASTEROID, tokens like sato, sat1, Lo0p, and FLOOD, built upon the Uniswap v4 Hook protocol, are capturing market attention. Their market capitalizations range from millions to tens of millions of dollars, injecting much-needed focused liquidity into a market lacking narratives. This article explores whether this trend signifies an incoming "Hook Summer" and its potential impact on UNI's price. Hooks are essentially plug-in smart contracts for Uniswap v4 liquidity pools, allowing developers to inject custom logic at key points in a pool's lifecycle (like initialization, adding/removing liquidity, swaps). This transforms the AMM into programmable building blocks. Key highlighted projects include: * **sato**: Peaked over $38M market cap. It utilizes a v4 curve for minting/burning; buying locks ETH as reserve to mint new tokens, while selling redeems ETH from the reserve and burns tokens. * **sat1**: Market cap briefly exceeded $10M, promoted as an "optimized sato," but later declined significantly. * **Lo0p**: Reached nearly $6.6M. It's a lending AMM protocol where buying LO0P tokens locks them as collateral, allowing users to borrow ETH from the pool reserve at 40% LTV, aiming to improve capital efficiency for idle ETH in LPs. * **FLOOD**: Peaked near $6M. Its mechanism directs asset reserves from buys into Aave v3 to generate yield, with fees and interest retained in the pool to potentially influence the token's price long-term. In the long term, the development of the Hook ecosystem can attract users and liquidity to Uniswap v4, benefiting UNI's fundamentals—especially combined with the recent activation of the protocol fee switch, where a portion of fees is used to burn UNI. However, in the short term, these Hook-based tokens are unlikely to directly drive significant UNI price appreciation. Their impact is moderated by factors like token sustainability, price volatility, and broader market and regulatory conditions. Currently, Uniswap v4's TVL ($595M) still trails behind v2 and v3, indicating adoption and growth will take time. The article concludes that while the Hook ecosystem provides long-term "nourishment" for UNI, its short-term role is more of a "catalyst" than a "booster." Readers are cautioned that these are early-stage experimental tokens and may carry unknown risks.

Odaily星球日报Hace 36 min(s)

Has Hook Summer Truly Arrived? sato, Lo0p, FLOOD Ignite the New Uniswap v4 Narrative

Odaily星球日报Hace 36 min(s)

Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I Would Sell Bitcoin, But Never a Net Sale

Interview with Michael Saylor: I Said We'd Sell Bitcoin, But Never Be a Net Seller In a recent podcast, MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor clarified the company's stance on potentially selling Bitcoin. Following MicroStrategy's earnings call statement about being prepared to sell BTC to fund dividends for its STRC (Strategic) credit product, Saylor emphasized the distinction between selling and being a "net seller." Saylor explained the core business model: MicroStrategy sells credit instruments like STRC and uses the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, which is viewed as "digital capital" expected to appreciate around 30-40% annually. A portion of these capital gains can then be used to pay the dividends on the credit products. He stressed that even if the company sells some Bitcoin for dividends, it simultaneously buys much more with new credit issuance. For example, after raising $3.2 billion from STRC sales in April, the dividend obligation was only $80-90 million, making the company a net buyer. The clarification aims to counter market narratives questioning the value of Bitcoin on MicroStrategy's balance sheet if it were never sold, and to dismiss claims of a "Ponzi scheme." Saylor reiterated his personal philosophy for investors: "Don't be a net seller of bitcoin" and ensure your Bitcoin holdings increase each year. Saylor also discussed Bitcoin's role as the foundation for "digital credit," noting that STRC has become the largest and most liquid preferred stock issue in the U.S., offering high risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio). He highlighted Bitcoin's deep liquidity, stating that even large purchases by MicroStrategy do not move the market significantly, which is driven by macro factors, geopolitical tensions, and capital flows from ETFs and credit products. Finally, Saylor reflected on his early inspiration from sci-fi books, which motivated his path to MIT, and maintained his fundamental thesis on Bitcoin remains unchanged: it is superior digital capital enabling superior digital credit.

链捕手Hace 40 min(s)

Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I Would Sell Bitcoin, But Never a Net Sale

链捕手Hace 40 min(s)

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片