Author | Asher(@Asher_0210)
Yesterday, the "World Cup Champion" prediction market settled with a final trading volume of $4.32 billion, surpassing the $3.686 billion of the "2024 US Presidential Election Winner" market to become the single highest-volume prediction event in Polymarket's history.
Furthermore, during the six weeks of the World Cup, the cumulative nominal trading volume in Polymarket's soccer category reached $8.5 billion, which is four times the combined trading volume of all other sports categories during the same period.
The 2024 US election brought Polymarket into the mainstream spotlight, and the 2026 World Cup propelled it into the even higher-frequency sports betting market. Six weeks, $8.5 billion; a single market, $4.32 billion. Polymarket hasn't just broken records, it has found a traffic machine that runs even faster than the election cycle.
Riding the World Cup Wave, Polymarket Quietly Raised Fees for the Sports Category
On July 10th, towards the end of the World Cup, Polymarket increased the transaction fees for its sports markets.
This adjustment wasn't announced separately to ordinary users but appeared in the platform's developer Changelog. The Taker fee multiplier for the sports category was raised from 0.03 to 0.05; the Maker rebate ratio was reduced from 25% to 15%.
The increase from 0.03 to 0.05 might seem minor, but it actually raises the maximum transaction cost by nearly 70%. For example, when buying 100 shares of a sports event, the fee is highest when the share price is $0.50. Before the adjustment, the maximum fee was $0.75; after the adjustment, it rose to $1.25. The fee decreases symmetrically as the share price approaches $0.01 or $0.99, with the specific distribution shown in the table below.
With this, the sports category also lost its status as Polymarket's lowest-fee tier. Previously, along with politics, finance, and tech, it belonged to the platform's lower-cost trading categories. After the adjustment, the maximum fee per 100 shares rose to $1.25, placing it in the same tier as economy, culture, and weather, and only lower than the $1.75 for cryptocurrency markets.
Looking back over the past six months, Polymarket has been quietly expanding its fee structure.
In January 2026, Polymarket first introduced Taker fees for its 15-minute cryptocurrency markets. In February, fees were expanded to select college basketball and Serie A markets. In March, all newly launched crypto markets began charging fees. Following the launch of Fee Structure V2 in late March, categories like politics, finance, economy, culture, weather, and tech were gradually incorporated into the fee system.
For the platform, once user habits are established, raising fees doesn't typically lead to widespread user attrition, yet it allows the same trading volume to generate more revenue.
POLY Airdrop Controversy Reignites: How Much Longer Must Users Wait?
Recently, the community noticed that the official-associated account Polymarket Traders deleted a tweet posted on May 13th. The original tweet had been interpreted by the community as a hint towards a POLY airdrop. After its deletion, many users began re-examining the account's history, and discussions around whether the airdrop plans had changed heated up once again.
The market is so sensitive because a Polymarket token launch is no longer baseless speculation. In October 2025, Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, explicitly stated in a podcast: "There will be a token, and there will be an airdrop." He also mentioned that Polymarket's primary task at the time was re-entering the US market, and that token plans would advance after US operations were established, praising Hyperliquid's token launch approach.
This statement once led the community to believe that POLY was merely a matter of timing. Since then, metrics like trading volume, market-making activity, and active days have been considered by many users as potential weightings for the airdrop. Even though the platform never announced a snapshot date or distribution rules, users were willing to continue trading, waiting for the token plan to materialize.
The issue is that US operations are progressing, and the World Cup hype has passed, yet POLY still hasn't announced a timeline. Keen-eyed users discovered that recently added text in Polymarket's official Help Center section states that the platform "has not announced any plans for an airdrop or token generation event," and warns users to be vigilant against scams using airdrop claims. This doesn't necessarily mean POLY has been cancelled, but for users who have been waiting, the question is no longer *if* Polymarket will issue a token, but how much longer this "future" will be postponed.
Currently, the community has two main theories about the delay. One view is that Polymarket is waiting for a more suitable regulatory window. The platform is still expanding its US business, and launching a token/airdrop could bring additional regulatory scrutiny. Deleting overly suggestive hints from associated accounts before a formal plan is finalized might simply be an effort to tighten external messaging.
The other view is that Polymarket no longer has an urgent need to issue a token, and perhaps risks becoming the next OpenSea. In the past, the platform might have relied on airdrop expectations to attract users, boost trading volume, and supplement liquidity. Now, Polymarket already has a massive user base, real revenue, and fees are steadily increasing. As the platform's dependence on a token decreases, the priority of launching POLY could naturally be pushed further back.
Previously, the community discussed *how* POLY would be airdropped and *if* trading volume would be weighted. Now, the discussion has shifted to *how much longer* the wait will be, and what the next hopeful timeframe might be. The platform that lists countless predictable events still can't set a settlement date for its own airdrop.
