The Bitcoin Vector #33

insights.glassnodePublished on 2025-12-10Last updated on 2025-12-10

Abstract

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Executive Summary

Anchored, But Under Strain

Bitcoin remains structurally fragile, trading between the STH-Cost Basis at $102.7k and the True Market Mean at $81.3k. On-chain conditions are weakening, with rising unrealized and realized losses, alongside elevated selling from long-term holders. Despite some demand absorbing this pressure, reclaiming key levels like the 0.75 cost-basis quantile ($95k) is crucial for a bullish reversal. Off-chain activity reflects caution: ETF flows are negative, spot and futures liquidity are subdued, and options markets show heightened demand for short-term downside protection ahead of the FOMC meeting. Traders are accumulating volatility, anticipating a near-term move. Post-FOMC, volatility may compress, but the market remains range-bound, balancing persistent sell pressure against patient demand.

insights.glassnodeHace 4 min(s)

insights.glassnodeHace 4 min(s)

Japan plans major shift as crypto moves from payments to securities law

Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) is planning to shift cryptocurrency regulation from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA), treating crypto primarily as investment products rather than payment methods. This move aims to enhance user protection by imposing stricter disclosure rules for initial exchange offerings (IEOs), including mandatory pre-sale information, third-party code audits, and issuer identity disclosure. The new framework also strengthens measures against unregistered platforms and explicitly prohibits insider trading. The regulatory shift coincides with government discussions to implement a flat 20% tax rate on crypto trading profits.

cointelegraphHace 13 min(s)

Japan plans major shift as crypto moves from payments to securities law

cointelegraphHace 13 min(s)

Ethereum (ETH) Bulls in Action: Will It Breeze Past $3.5K or Hit Headwinds?

Ethereum (ETH) has shown strong bullish momentum, rising over 6% to trade around $3,316. Breaking past key resistance levels, it reached a high of $3,395. Market cap stands at nearly $400 billion, with a 53% surge in trading volume to $34 billion. Technical analysis indicates positive signals: the MACD crossover suggests growing bullish trend, CMF at 0.27 reflects strong buying pressure, and RSI at 67.78 points to a strong uptrend approaching overbought conditions. If bulls maintain control, ETH could target $3,330-$3,345. However, a bearish reversal might find support at $3,302 or drop below $3,288.

TheNewsCryptoHace 20 min(s)

Ethereum (ETH) Bulls in Action: Will It Breeze Past $3.5K or Hit Headwinds?

TheNewsCryptoHace 20 min(s)

BNB Could Reach $1,600: Ozak AI Price Prediction Outshines Every Major Altcoin

Analysts highlight Ozak AI (OZ) as a leading early-stage crypto contender, with its long-term growth potential surpassing even major altcoins like BNB. While BNB shows a strong bullish structure and could reach $1,600 in the next cycle, Ozak AI’s AI-driven architecture—featuring millisecond predictive models, real-time market signals, and autonomous on-chain agents—positions it for a steeper growth trajectory. Its presale has already raised over $4.8 million, drawing significant investor interest due to its real-time utility and cross-chain capabilities via the Perceptron Network. Despite BNB’s established role, Ozak AI is viewed as a more asymmetric opportunity due to its compounding utility independent of market cycles.

TheNewsCryptoHace 21 min(s)

BNB Could Reach $1,600: Ozak AI Price Prediction Outshines Every Major Altcoin

TheNewsCryptoHace 21 min(s)

Stablecoins break into top 3 growth drivers for Web3 gaming: BGA 2025 report

According to the Blockchain Gaming Alliance's 2025 report, stablecoin adoption has emerged as a top-three growth driver for Web3 gaming for the first time, alongside high-quality game launches and revenue-driven business models. This reflects a shift away from speculative token cycles and reliance on major Web2 brands, indicating the industry's growing focus on fundamentals, sustainable infrastructure, and commercially viable games. The report highlights a five-year evolution in developer priorities, moving from external catalysts like play-to-earn hype to improved user experience and now to polished gameplay and stablecoin-integrated payment systems. Stablecoins are seen as crucial for enabling frictionless, fiat-like transactions in game economies. Additionally, dependence on traditional gaming publishers has significantly decreased, with interoperability, AI integration, and creator economies gaining prominence.

cointelegraphHace 34 min(s)

Stablecoins break into top 3 growth drivers for Web3 gaming: BGA 2025 report