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El Centro de Noticias de HTX ofrece los artículos más recientes y un análisis profundo sobre "Polymarket", cubriendo tendencias del mercado, actualizaciones de proyectos, desarrollos tecnológicos y políticas regulatorias en la industria de cripto.

Crypto Prediction Markets Face Existential Threat — 3 States Move To Shut Traders Out

The U.S. federal government, through the CFTC and DOJ, is suing Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut to block their attempts to shut down crypto prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The federal agencies argue they have exclusive jurisdiction to regulate these markets as derivatives, while the states classify them as illegal gambling. This legal clash represents a significant existential threat to the industry. A federal victory would centralize oversight under the CFTC, creating a single regulatory framework. If the states prevail, platforms would face a fragmented landscape of state gambling laws, potentially pushing markets offshore and increasing costs for traders.

bitcoinistAyer 19:32

Crypto Prediction Markets Face Existential Threat — 3 States Move To Shut Traders Out

bitcoinistAyer 19:32

Rhythm X Zhihu Hong Kong Event Skills Recruitment, Sign Up Now for a Chance to Showcase On-Site

Six months ago, "how to write good prompts" was the hottest topic in group chats. Now, that question is clearly outdated. It has been replaced by Skills. The shift was largely triggered by the emergence of OpenClaw, which brought the concept of AI agents into the mainstream. Unlike a smart search engine that answers questions in isolated interactions, an agent can plan, remember, and complete entire tasks autonomously, creating the novel feeling that it is genuinely working for you. This has led to the rise of Skills—specialized capabilities that equip agents to handle specific domains efficiently. Without Skills, an agent is like a smart but untrained newcomer; with them, it can execute complex, precision-sensitive workflows without constant guidance. Popular Skills currently spreading within communities focus on areas like workflow automation, domain-specific rule injection (e.g., for law, finance, or medicine), personalization, and even financial operations such as identifying arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket or executing quantitative trading strategies. This shifts the门槛 from requiring programming and financial expertise to simply installing a Skill. The underlying change is that people are starting to view agents as long-term collaborators, not just disposable tools. Now, with vibe coding, turning an idea into a functional Skill no longer requires a technical team, code, or infrastructure—it can be done over a weekend. The gap between a good idea and a working product has dramatically narrowed.

marsbitAyer 09:18

Rhythm X Zhihu Hong Kong Event Skills Recruitment, Sign Up Now for a Chance to Showcase On-Site

marsbitAyer 09:18

Adding Another Oracle, Polymarket's Ambition Exposed

Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, has announced the integration of Pyth Network as its oracle provider for settling prediction markets related to traditional assets. This new batch of markets will cover commodities like gold, silver, WTI crude oil, and natural gas, as well as U.S. stocks including NVIDIA, Apple, Tesla, and ETFs. Pyth will supply real-time pricing data via WebSocket, enabling second-by-second sampling and live charts for traders. This move is part of Polymarket’s ongoing expansion of its oracle infrastructure. Initially reliant on UMA’s optimistic oracle for subjective events like elections, the platform later integrated Chainlink for automated crypto price settlements (e.g., BTC and ETH). With Pyth—known for its institutional data sources like Jump Trading and Jane Street—Polymarket now extends into traditional finance, forming a multi-layered oracle system: UMA for social and political events, Chainlink for crypto, and Pyth for traditional assets. By expanding its data sources, Polymarket is broadening the scope of tradable futures—effectively turning real-world uncertainties into betable markets. The end goal appears to be a unified super-platform where any verifiable event—macro data, earnings, sports, weather, or AI releases—can be priced and traded.

Odaily星球日报Hace 2 días 04:10

Adding Another Oracle, Polymarket's Ambition Exposed

Odaily星球日报Hace 2 días 04:10

Warmonger Trump Has Forgotten the Americans Waiting in Airport Lines for Hours

A government shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which began on February 14, 2025, continues to cause severe disruptions across the United States. Over 100,000 DHS employees are unpaid, and nearly 11% of TSA workers are absent, leading to massive airport delays—some lines stretching into parking lots. Elon Musk offered to pay TSA salaries but was declined by the White House due to legal and conflict-of-interest concerns. In response, President Trump deployed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to assist at airports. However, these agents lacked proper TSA skills, instead focusing on immigration enforcement, and delays persisted. Prediction markets like Polymarket indicate a 44% chance the shutdown ends between April 5–8, after Congress reconvenes. If missed, the stalemate may prolong. Another market suggests a 31% probability Republicans use the "nuclear option"—a procedural maneuver to bypass the 60-vote Senate threshold—to pass funding, though it carries political risks. Amid ongoing Iran tensions, the shutdown highlights domestic dysfunction, with essential services strained and political resolution uncertain.

marsbitHace 2 días 02:05

Warmonger Trump Has Forgotten the Americans Waiting in Airport Lines for Hours

marsbitHace 2 días 02:05

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

The competition between US-based prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket has intensified, with both companies exchanging sharp public criticisms. Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, launched an ad campaign in Washington, D.C., with slogans such as "We don’t do death markets," directly targeting Polymarket’s offshore operations and its controversial contracts related to military conflicts and sensitive events. Kalshi accused Polymarket of being "irresponsible, dangerous, and non-compliant," while Polymarket responded by calling for fact-based discussions and emphasizing its commitment to market integrity. The dispute highlights fundamental differences in their regulatory approaches and comes amid growing scrutiny over insider trading and ethical concerns in the prediction market industry, which has seen combined weekly volumes nearing $6 billion.

marsbitHace 2 días 08:52

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

marsbitHace 2 días 08:52

Senator Lummis pushes for CLARITY Act, calls it ‘best thing to happen to DeFi community’

Senator Cynthia Lummis advocates for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, calling it the "best thing to happen to the DeFi community." She argues the legislation would provide legal certainty and a "safe harbor" for developers, validators, and node operators, ensuring American innovation remains in the U.S. However, this optimism contrasts with Polymarket's prediction market, where the act's odds of passage are only 49%, reflecting broader market uncertainty. This skepticism may stem from ongoing disagreements between the White House and crypto entities like Coinbase. Concurrently, stablecoin infrastructure is evolving. The Better Money Company, backed by A16z crypto, is developing a "stablecoin clearinghouse" to simplify the use of multiple stablecoins across different blockchains. This development follows the passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025, which streamlined stablecoin regulations. Visa's on-chain analytics report a massive $72.3 trillion in stablecoin transaction volume over the past year, with USDC recently outpacing USDT in monthly transaction volume.

ambcryptoHace 2 días 05:46

Senator Lummis pushes for CLARITY Act, calls it ‘best thing to happen to DeFi community’

ambcryptoHace 2 días 05:46

Paradigm Builds Its Own Prediction Market Trading Terminal, Also Considering Market Making and Index Products

Paradigm, a major crypto investment firm, is developing a dedicated trading terminal for prediction markets, targeting professional traders and market makers, according to anonymous sources. Led by partner Arjun Balaji since late 2025, the initiative aligns with growing institutional interest in prediction markets, where users speculate on events like elections or asset prices. The company is reportedly considering launching an internal market-making desk and exploring the creation of a prediction market index—similar to traditional indices like the S&P 500—by aggregating multiple prediction markets into a single tradable product. Paradigm has already begun compiling prediction market data into a public dashboard. Notably, Paradigm is a key investor in Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform it helped value at $22 billion, and insists the terminal does not compete with Kalshi’s core business. This move is part of Paradigm’s broader expansion beyond crypto into AI and robotics, evidenced by its ongoing efforts to raise a new $1.5 billion fund. The firm has a history of launching in-house projects, including the crypto software company Ithaca and Tempo, a stablecoin-focused blockchain developed with Stripe.

marsbit04/02 03:11

Paradigm Builds Its Own Prediction Market Trading Terminal, Also Considering Market Making and Index Products

marsbit04/02 03:11

Texas targets crypto, gambling loopholes amid prediction market concerns

Prediction markets have gained significant attention, particularly during the U.S. election cycle, but the rise of gambling within these markets has eroded public trust. In response, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is pushing for legislative changes to close gambling loopholes. He aims to prevent the exploitation of federal regulations, such as those of the CFTC, to bypass state gambling prohibitions. The goal is to ensure the integrity of elections and sports in Texas. Additionally, Patrick advocates for assessing the state’s approach to emerging financial technologies, including crypto, while prioritizing consumer protection and addressing issues like crypto ATM scams. The move coincides with a decline in public interest in prediction market gambling, as shown by Google Trends data.

ambcrypto04/01 17:28

Texas targets crypto, gambling loopholes amid prediction market concerns

ambcrypto04/01 17:28

Crypto Trading Goes Full Spectacle — Why Polymarket’s Arena Could Be The Next Degens’ Battleground

Polymarket and legend.trade are launching the Legend Trade Series, an e-sports style crypto trading competition set for April 16, 2026, in New York City. This event turns prediction market trading into a live spectator event, where traders will compete on real-world event outcomes that settle on-chain. The format blends prediction markets, social trading, and e-sports, featuring brackets, live leaderboards, and a broadcast for viewers. While similar gamified trading competitions exist in traditional finance and crypto, this event emphasizes a full esports production with live spectators. The move aims to boost engagement but also raises regulatory concerns about overtrading and risk-taking.

bitcoinist04/01 06:35

Crypto Trading Goes Full Spectacle — Why Polymarket’s Arena Could Be The Next Degens’ Battleground

bitcoinist04/01 06:35

Hardcore Breakdown of Polymarket's Fee Formula: How Did the Extreme Rate of 90+% Pop Up?

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, recently faced backlash due to unexpectedly high transaction fees, with some users reporting fees as extreme as 94.8%. The issue stemmed from a temporary change in the fee calculation formula. The platform initially used an "old formula": fee = C × p × feeRate × (p × (1 - p))^exponent. However, a brief update to an "abnormal formula" removed a critical "× p" term, becoming: fee = C × feeRate × (p × (1 - p))^exponent. Since share prices (p) are always less than $1, this omission drastically increased fees, especially for very low-priced shares (near $0.001), as the fee was no longer scaled by the price. An exponent value of 0.5 in certain markets ("Weather" and "Economy") further exacerbated the curve, leading to the extreme rates. Polymarket quickly responded by implementing a "new formula": fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 - p), effectively setting the exponent to 1. This change significantly reduced fees, particularly for extreme price points, bringing maximum fees down to around 5%. The article advises users to avoid high fees by using limit orders (which are free and even offer a 20-25% maker rebate) or the platform's "Split" function to indirectly establish positions instead of market orders.

Odaily星球日报04/01 03:57

Hardcore Breakdown of Polymarket's Fee Formula: How Did the Extreme Rate of 90+% Pop Up?

Odaily星球日报04/01 03:57

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