Artículos Relacionados con Moving Average

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Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, the True Window for Bottom-Fishing May Not Have Arrived Yet

Matrixport Research confirms that the crypto market has entered a bear phase, with Bitcoin's recent break below a key support level signaling a confirmed downtrend. Historical cycle analysis suggests this correction aligns with typical bear market patterns in both scale and rhythm. The focus has now shifted from whether the trend has reversed to identifying the next optimal accumulation window. Key observations indicate that Bitcoin's break below its one-year moving average often marks the start of a bear market, which historically lasts about 12 months. This suggests the next bull cycle may not begin until Q4 2026, with a potential cycle low likely in Q3 2026. The report also posits that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle correlates more strongly with U.S. midterm election cycles than with halving events, citing heightened regulatory and political uncertainty as key drivers of market tops and bottoms. From a technical perspective, neither the monthly Stochastic oscillator (currently at ~39%) nor the monthly RSI (near 50) has yet reached key oversold thresholds that historically signaled major bottoms. A clear reversal confirmation—typically occurring after a break below extreme levels—has not appeared. The report concludes that the final market low has likely not been reached and emphasizes the need for patience. A sustainable recovery should be confirmed by clear signals of exhausted selling momentum, not just proximity to perceived low prices.

Matrixport02/13 08:37

Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, the True Window for Bottom-Fishing May Not Have Arrived Yet

Matrixport02/13 08:37

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Breaches Key Support, Rebound May Be Just a 'Breather' Rather Than a Reversal

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Breaches Key Support, Rebound More Likely a "Pause" Than a Reversal Following a sharp decline, Bitcoin's price has fallen into a key target range. While the macro environment has improved marginally with stronger US growth indicators and a weaker dollar, Bitcoin has failed to show a clear, sustainable reversal signal. The price action remains caught between macro improvements and insufficient technical repair. A critical technical change is the breach and loss of a major trend level that previously distinguished between a rebound and a structural downtrend. This former support has now turned into resistance. Without a compelling new narrative or clear catalyst, the recent price recovery is more likely a technical rebound within a downtrend rather than a genuine trend reversal. Technically, Bitcoin continues to trade below its 21-week moving average. A sustained break above this level is needed to confirm a trend reversal. Historically, when both medium and long-term support structures are broken, the market tends to enter a prolonged weak phase. Furthermore, the funding structure presents constraints. Despite the sharp price drop, ETF holdings have not decreased significantly. Since their launch, investors have bought approximately $54.3 billion worth of Bitcoin via ETFs at an average cost of $90,000. This has resulted in tens of billions in unrealized losses. This large volume of underwater positions is more likely to create selling pressure on any rebound rather than provide support. In conclusion, despite marginal macro improvements, the weak technical structure, crowded positioning, and declining participation suggest macro positives are unlikely to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term. The current rebound is more likely a pause within a top formation, with selling pressure potentially overwhelming new buying interest. A strict risk management approach is advised.

Matrixport02/06 09:17

Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Breaches Key Support, Rebound May Be Just a 'Breather' Rather Than a Reversal

Matrixport02/06 09:17

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