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How Does Wall Street View Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut? Hawkish 'Correction' of July Communication; Failure to Hike in September May Further Damage Fed Credibility

Wall Street widely interpreted Fed Chair Wash's first speech at the Jackson Hole symposium as a "hawkish correction" to the Fed's July FOMC communications. Wash firmly reiterated the Fed's unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target, indicated that overall financial conditions are not restrictive, and stated that recent positive PCE and CPI data are not enough to show meaningful improvement in underlying inflation trends. He said if confidence is lacking that inflation is falling "clearly and fast enough," the Fed "has more work to do," with Reuters calling it his closest admission yet that another rate hike may be needed. This shifted market focus to the September meeting. JPMorgan's Priya Misra called it a "hawkish speech" that cleaned up July's communication "misstep." Aberdeen's Matthew Amis warned that if the Fed doesn't hike in September, its credibility could take another hit. Barclays and Société Générale now forecast 25-basis-point hikes in September and December, with SocGen adding a March hike expectation. However, analysts noted Wash provided principles but no explicit forward guidance. The "new Fed whisperer," Nick Timiraos, observed Wash gave a more hawkish diagnosis but no clear "reaction function." The CME's FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a September hike jumped from about 35% to around 50-60% after the speech. The bond market reaction was telling: short-term yields rose more than long-term yields, indicating traders were repricing near-term rate hikes. In essence, Wash rebuilt a hawkish policy logic: if the economy remains resilient and inflation doesn't fall fast enough, more tightening is possible. The consensus is that he successfully delivered a hawkish reset. While a September hike is now a serious possibility, the final decision will hinge on incoming data, creating a credibility test for the Fed if data doesn't improve and it holds rates steady.

marsbitHace 2 hora(s)

How Does Wall Street View Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut? Hawkish 'Correction' of July Communication; Failure to Hike in September May Further Damage Fed Credibility

marsbitHace 2 hora(s)

Warsh's Latest Speech: The Era We Are In

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin W. Warsh delivered a speech titled "In Our Time" at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The remarks struck a cautiously hawkish tone, with Warsh emphasizing that inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target and should be the primary focus of monetary policy. He expressed that recent, better-than-expected CPI and PCE data do not yet signal a meaningful improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Warsh outlined core principles for monetary policy, including the firm commitment to the 2% inflation target, the importance of both price stability and maximum employment, and the primary role of short-term interest rates as a policy tool. He also stressed the relevance of monetary aggregates and advocated for a Fed that communicates with greater purpose and restraint. A significant portion of the speech addressed the practice of "forward guidance." Warsh argued that while essential during crises, forward guidance should be limited in normal times. He warned that excessive pre-commitment to future policy paths can constrain the Fed's flexibility and create a "hall-of-mirrors" problem, where markets rely too heavily on Fed signals rather than independently assessing economic fundamentals. On the current economy, Warsh noted impressive resilience, strong business investment (partly driven by AI infrastructure), healthy consumer spending, and a stable labor market with low unemployment. However, he observed that broad financial conditions are not particularly restrictive. Despite economic strength, inflation metrics remain elevated, with a high proportion of PCE basket components still showing price increases above 3%. Warsh concluded by stating the Fed's standard: policymakers must be confident that underlying inflation is moving clearly and sufficiently quickly toward the 2% target. Otherwise, "we have more work to do." He framed his approach as a commitment to disciplined policy-making rather than to any specific near-term decision.

marsbitHace 4 hora(s)

Warsh's Latest Speech: The Era We Are In

marsbitHace 4 hora(s)

Solana Validators Approve Proposal to Accelerate SOL Disinflation

Solana validators have approved a proposal to accelerate the network's disinflation by doubling the annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, while keeping the long-term target inflation rate at 1.5%. The measure, known as SGP-0002 or "Double Disinflation," passed with 67% support from the voting stake. This change means Solana is expected to reach its final inflation target in roughly 2.8 years instead of 5.7 years, potentially reducing future SOL issuance by about 18.9 million over the next six years. This will decrease dilution for SOL holders but also lower staking rewards for validators and delegators. The vote was part of Solana's first mandatory governance process. Major validators were divided, with Figment voting against and Helius and Jupiter strongly in favor. Kraken changed its position during the voting period, ultimately supporting the proposal. The governance decision comes as U.S.-listed Solana ETFs continue to see strong investor interest, with Bitwise's Solana ETF recently surpassing $1 billion in assets under management.

cryptonews.ruHace 6 hora(s)

Solana Validators Approve Proposal to Accelerate SOL Disinflation

cryptonews.ruHace 6 hora(s)

Bitfinex Signals the Start of a Bitcoin Bull Run Amid Peak Correlation with Gold

Bitfinex suggests that Bitcoin's correlation with gold has reached peak levels, signaling a potential shift and the beginning of a bull market. Analysts observe that both assets are trading as a unified hedge against currency devaluation amidst concerns over U.S. debt and monetary policy. Bitfinex notes this high correlation is typically unsustainable, and a change in risk sentiment will test whether Bitcoin decouples from stocks to follow gold. The exchange highlights that Bitcoin's price has moved from an accumulation to an expansion phase, supported by technical metrics. This trend mirrors 2024 patterns where investors sought alternatives due to fears of "debt debasement." However, recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing a commitment to 2% inflation and hinting at rate hikes, contrast with this devaluation narrative.

cryptonews.ruHace 6 hora(s)

Bitfinex Signals the Start of a Bitcoin Bull Run Amid Peak Correlation with Gold

cryptonews.ruHace 6 hora(s)

Solana validators approve proposal to accelerate SOL disinflation

Solana validators have approved the SGP-0002 "Double Disinflation" proposal with 67% support and 60.7% participation. This binding governance vote doubles the network's annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, accelerating the timeline to reach Solana's long-term inflation target of 1.5% from about 5.7 years to 2.8 years. The change is expected to reduce future SOL issuance by an estimated 18.9 million tokens over six years, decreasing dilution for holders but also lowering staking rewards. Major validators were divided, with Figment voting against and Helius and Jupiter strongly supporting. Notably, Kraken changed its position from opposed to supportive during the voting period. This governance milestone coincides with Bitwise's U.S. Solana ETF surpassing $1 billion in assets, reflecting continued institutional interest despite recent market volatility.

cointelegraphHace 8 hora(s)

Solana validators approve proposal to accelerate SOL disinflation

cointelegraphHace 8 hora(s)

BTC Failed to Surpass the $81,500 Mark as 'Whales' Built a Massive 'Sell Wall' at $81,000

Bitcoin failed to break decisively above $81,500 after hitting that level, encountering a massive "sell wall" near $81,000. The price peaked at $81,455 before sharply reversing, dropping to a low near $76,877 following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first speech at the Jackson Hole forum. This erased gains from late August and cut Bitcoin's weekly advance to about 2%, though it remains on track for double-digit monthly growth. The reversal triggered significant liquidations totaling around $107 million in derivatives, with roughly $300 million in leveraged positions wiped out across crypto markets. Data indicates a heavy liquidity imbalance, with approximately $5.7 billion in bids concentrated between $75,000 and $78,500, compared to only about $2.8 billion in asks above $81,500. This suggests a deeper pullback remains a risk. Order flow analysis shows whales maintaining strong sell walls between $80,800 and $83,000, while substantial buy orders cluster around $78,000-$79,000. While futures open interest has recovered and leverage is returning faster than organic spot demand, the failure to hold above $80,000 has weakened short-term momentum and tilted sentiment toward caution. In his speech, Warsh reiterated a cautious stance on inflation, advocating for traditional central bank management over forward guidance.

cryptonews.ruHace 9 hora(s)

BTC Failed to Surpass the $81,500 Mark as 'Whales' Built a Massive 'Sell Wall' at $81,000

cryptonews.ruHace 9 hora(s)

Solana's Historic First Governance Vote Concludes: Why Did SGP-003 Spark Massive Controversy?

Solana has completed its first-ever formal on-chain governance vote, marking a shift towards decentralized decision-making. Three proposals, SGP-0001, SGP-0002, and SGP-0003, were voted on. SGP-0001, establishing the foundational governance framework, and SGP-0002, accelerating the reduction of SOL's inflation rate, both passed. However, the most contentious proposal, SGP-0003, failed to reach the required supermajority. SGP-0003 proposed a significant change to Solana's fee structure, introducing a variable "Resource Fee" based on computational unit (CU) consumption, which would be entirely burned. Supporters, including some core developers, argued it would create fairer resource pricing and increase SOL's deflationary pressure. Opponents, led by major DeFi applications like Jupiter and Drift, criticized it as an effective tax on complex applications, warning it would unpredictably increase operational costs and undermine business models built on Solana's low fees. The vote outcome highlights a critical tension within Solana's growing ecosystem: balancing the interests of SOL holders (through deflationary mechanisms), validators (through rewards), and application developers (through cost predictability). As Solana evolves from a high-performance blockchain to one hosting substantial economic activity, governance is becoming central to its future development and competitiveness.

marsbitHace 12 hora(s)

Solana's Historic First Governance Vote Concludes: Why Did SGP-003 Spark Massive Controversy?

marsbitHace 12 hora(s)

Bitcoin dips to $78.4K as Fed’s Warsh downplays softer inflation prints

Bitcoin experienced volatility following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium, dipping to around $78.4K. Warsh downplayed recent softer inflation prints in CPI and PCE data, stating underlying trends had not "meaningfully improved" and committing to the 2% inflation target. He also announced the Fed would avoid forward guidance in the future. While U.S. stocks avoided losses, Bitcoin continued to trade around $80,000 ahead of the monthly close. Analysis noted that sustaining a break above $83,000 would require support from derivatives markets, with controlled funding rates and gradual open interest growth being key to avoid excessive leverage-driven moves. Despite recent resistance, Bitcoin was on track for its best August performance since 2017.

cointelegraphHace 12 hora(s)

Bitcoin dips to $78.4K as Fed’s Warsh downplays softer inflation prints

cointelegraphHace 12 hora(s)

Wash's Jackson Hole Debut: Bidding Farewell to 'Forward Guidance', Reshaping Fed Discipline Amidst the Squeeze Between AI and Inflation

In his first Jackson Hole speech, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a significant shift in monetary policy communication. He declared that "forward guidance," a tool heavily used since the financial crisis, has outlived its usefulness in normal times and should be retired. He cautioned that over-reliance on it can distort market signals and constrain the Fed's flexibility. Instead, Warsh emphasized a return to data-dependence and decision-making discipline. Warsh outlined seven key principles to guide policy: anchoring the 2% inflation target, pursuing the employment mandate, using short-term rates as the primary tool, acknowledging the importance of money, and maintaining purposeful, restrained communication. He stressed that policy should focus on trends, not single data points. On the current economic outlook, Warsh noted that the labor market is consistent with full employment but inflation remains "far above" the Fed's target. He highlighted that over half of the PCE basket's components are still rising above 3% annually. While acknowledging AI's transformative potential for productivity and capital allocation, he admitted its full economic impact remains uncertain and is not a factor in current policy decisions. His core message was a commitment to policy discipline rather than pre-set decisions. Warsh stated the Fed's primary focus must be on restoring price stability, vowing, "We still have work to do," until there is clear evidence inflation is moving decisively toward 2%. He concluded by framing effective monetary policy as crucial for economic prosperity and U.S. global leadership.

Odaily星球日报Hace 13 hora(s)

Wash's Jackson Hole Debut: Bidding Farewell to 'Forward Guidance', Reshaping Fed Discipline Amidst the Squeeze Between AI and Inflation

Odaily星球日报Hace 13 hora(s)

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole! Here Are the Key Points and Bitcoin's Initial Reaction!

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered his highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. In his first major address as Chair, he stressed that price stability remains the Fed's top priority. Warsh struck a firm tone, acknowledging that while summer inflation data showed improvement, underlying trends have not changed meaningfully. He stated it is difficult to gauge how restrictive current financial conditions are and emphasized the need to ensure the downward inflation trend approaches the target. Key points from the speech included that the economy remains resilient, with high consumer spending, a stable labor market, and rapidly growing business investment. He noted that a "significant majority" at the July FOMC meeting favored waiting before changing interest rates. Following his remarks, Bitcoin's price dropped. It had been trading around $79,000 before the speech but fell to the $78,000 level afterward.

cryptonews.ruHace 14 hora(s)

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole! Here Are the Key Points and Bitcoin's Initial Reaction!

cryptonews.ruHace 14 hora(s)

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