Artículos Relacionados con Cycle

Undervalued but structurally weak: Bitcoin’s current cycle paradox

Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, recently falling to $66k after briefly touching $70k. Analysts attribute the ongoing pressure not to recent events but to a cyclical reset beginning in October. Key on-chain metrics present a paradox: the MVRV Z-score indicates Bitcoin is deeply undervalued, reaching historic lows, while the NUPL metric remains in the "hope" zone, suggesting a true market bottom, marked by a drop below zero, has not yet occurred. Furthermore, long-term holders, though still in profit on average, face pressure. This combination of statistical undervaluation and weak market structure suggests a risk of further decline toward $60k, with the potential for a full capitulation event still months away.

ambcryptoHace 5 hora(s)

Bitcoin Vs. Altcoins: You Should See This Chart That Shows Another Alt Season Is About To Begin

Based on a long-term chart analysis by crypto expert @CyrilXBT, the total altcoin market cap relative to Bitcoin has returned to a critical historical level of approximately 0.129, which has previously signaled the start of major altcoin seasons. This ratio, representing the total crypto market excluding the top 10 assets compared to Bitcoin, is now in what the analyst describes as the "base" or "accumulation zone." Historically, this level has preceded significant altcoin rallies, such as those in 2017-2018 and the largest recorded alt season in 2021 when the ratio surged above 0.55. Despite recent Bitcoin dominance and price declines, the current market reset suggests that conditions may be forming for a new alt season. The analyst notes that if historical patterns repeat, the ratio could potentially reach between 0.80 and 0.90 in the current cycle. This indicates that altcoins are not "dead" but may be poised for a significant upward movement as market dynamics align with past bullish trends.

bitcoinistHace 7 hora(s)

Bitcoin Early Architect Adam Back: BTC Has Never Failed, Growing Pains Are Just the Cost of Growth

Adam Back, an early Bitcoin pioneer referenced in the original whitepaper, argues that Bitcoin's recent price volatility is consistent with its historical four-year cycles and not a failure of its investment thesis. Despite a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin has declined by about 26% over the past year, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver have surged. Back attributes the current downturn to typical cyclical behavior and notes that some traders may be acting on historical patterns rather than fundamentals. He believes institutional adoption is still in its early stages, and broader participation over time will help reduce volatility. Comparing Bitcoin to early high-growth stocks like Amazon, he emphasizes that such volatility is natural during rapid adoption phases. He remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, citing its decade-long outperformance of other asset classes. Back measures Bitcoin’s potential against gold’s market cap, suggesting it could grow 10-15 times larger if it continues gaining traction as a store of value. For him, volatility is part of Bitcoin’s growth story, not a contradiction to its investment logic.

marsbitHace 23 hora(s)

Could This Be BTC's 2028 Diamond Bottom?

The article "Is This the 2028 Diamond Bottom for BTC?" analyzes Bitcoin's sharp and unexplained price decline in early 2026, describing it as the worst start to a year since 2016. Unlike previous major crashes—such as the 2018 ICO bust or the 2022 collapse triggered by Luna and FTX—this downturn lacks a clear catalyst, deepening market fear and uncertainty. Quantitative indicators suggest the market is in a state of extreme panic, with a "fear and greed index" of 11, levels historically seen only during major bottoms like the 2018 $3K low or the 2022 $16K FTX crisis. Other metrics, however—such as MVRV, price relative to the 200-week moving average, and miner shutdown proximity—have not yet reached typical bottom signals. Despite the bearish sentiment, some positive signs exist: significant USDT outflows indicate reduced leverage, and large short-term whales are facing substantial losses, which may limit further selling pressure. The author does not definitively call a bottom but argues that extreme fear often precedes strong rebounds and that $65K may offer a relatively high margin of safety. Historically, periods of irrational pessimism have often later been viewed as diamond-bottom opportunities.

marsbitAyer 05:27

Not Jane Street, not Binance: Why Bitcoin is really down

Bitcoin's recent decline is not the result of coordinated manipulation by specific firms like Jane Street or Binance, but rather a broad, cycle-driven market reset. The sell-off began gradually in the fourth quarter with large holders reducing exposure through distribution, not sudden dumping. February's sharp drop exhibited signs of forced selling, liquidation cascades, and volatility-driven de-risking rather than a controlled exit by a single entity. While conspiracy theories persist due to past market crashes and regulatory scrutiny, the drawdown aligns with historical mid-cycle corrections following periods of high leverage. Selling pressure appears to be easing, suggesting the worst of the unwind may be over, though sentiment remains fragile. The decline reflects a natural de-risking process, not a structural break in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory.

ambcryptoAyer 21:01

Why $61,359 Just Became The Most Important Bitcoin Price Point

Bitcoin's price has fallen below the $64,000 support level, increasing the risk of further declines. Analysts highlight that Bitcoin is nearing a critical historical level: the previous cycle’s monthly close high of $61,359. Historically, Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below the prior cycle’s peak, making this level a significant support. If it breaks, it would mark the first such breakdown in Bitcoin’s history, potentially signaling a shift in market behavior. While some compare this to the unprecedented break of the Weekly MA200 in a prior cycle, a monthly breakdown would be an even more significant event. The outcome depends on whether Bitcoin can hold above $61,359 by the end of February.

bitcoinistHace 2 días 17:01

Dogecoin – Why history suggests holders can expect 2 more years of pain

Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently trading at a key technical level and a rare historical discount, with a large portion of holders underwater. The "number of days spent at profit" metric reached an all-time high of 1100 days, indicating significant long-term investor losses. This suggests a large overhead supply and a potential prolonged correction phase. Historical data shows that long-term investors consistently bought DOGE during periods like mid-2021 and mid-to-late 2024, contributing to current unrealized losses, especially as prices fell from $0.35 to $0.092 over the past year. Based on MVRV pricing bands, DOGE may require up to two more years of downtrend before reclaiming the realized price support level of $0.140, mirroring previous cycle behavior.

ambcryptoHace 2 días 07:06

The Most Underrated Chapter in Dalio's 'Principles': On the Big Cycle, He Explained It Clearly Three Years Ago

The most underrated chapter in Ray Dalio's "Principles" explores the "Big Cycle" of investing, revealing a sobering historical pattern: 7 out of 10 major nations saw their wealth nearly wiped out at least once in the past century. Dalio argues that most investors fail to study these cycles, leading to a distorted perspective skewed by survivorship bias (e.g., focusing only on post-WWII US/UK success). The chapter details how financial wealth (stocks, bonds) expands relative to tangible wealth during cycles of debt and credit growth, eventually leading to crises where promises exceed deliverable value. This results in debt defaults, market crashes, currency devaluation, and even wealth confiscation. Historical data from 1900 shows extreme volatility: many countries experienced decades of negative real returns, market closures, and high taxes. Dalio emphasizes that investors’ biggest risks are not meeting return needs, portfolio destruction, and wealth confiscation—not just volatility. He warns that current conditions (near-zero real yields, high financial wealth vs. tangible wealth) mirror late-cycle stages where cash and bonds offer poor returns. The solution: diversify globally, understand cyclical drivers (growth, inflation, risk premiums), and avoid overexposure to any single environment or narrative.

marsbit02/25 04:59

Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week

bitcoinist02/24 02:02

Ethereum: Why Fundstrat sees $1.7K as a possible ETH bottom

Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, suggests Ethereum may be nearing or has already hit its market cycle bottom, projecting potential support levels between $1,360 and $1,770 based on historical realized price data. The realized price—average on-chain holder cost—has historically acted as a key support zone. If ETH follows the 2022 pattern, it could bottom at $1,367, while the 2025 scenario suggests a floor near $1,770. Although ETH recently dipped to $1,747, Farrell anticipates a potential 80% rally in the next 12 months if it holds above $1.3K. However, sustained recovery depends on renewed buying pressure from U.S. investors, as current negative Coinbase Premium Index readings indicate a lack of strong demand. Without U.S. ETF inflows or positive shift in sentiment, ETH may struggle to reclaim $2,000 in the near term.

ambcrypto02/21 02:02