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Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Turns Positive for the First Time in 7 Months: End of Bear Market or False Breakout?

Bitcoin's "Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" from CryptoQuant has turned positive for the first time since October 2025. This gauge, based on the P&L Index relative to its 365-day moving average, suggests a potential shift from a bear market phase. Concurrently, the Bull Score Index rose to a neutral reading of 50 in late April. The indicator's move into positive territory follows a roughly 35% price rebound from a low near $60,000 in February to above $81,000. The recovery over approximately three months was faster than the 12-month period observed during the 2022 bear market. However, analysts caution against premature optimism, citing a historical precedent from March 2022. Back then, the Bull Score Index briefly hit 50, but it proved to be a false signal as Bitcoin's price subsequently plunged further. Structural differences exist in the current cycle, including consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and an increase in large holder addresses. Yet, some models, referencing the four-year halving cycle, suggest a potential deeper bottom near $50,000 might still be possible around late 2026. In summary, while on-chain data shows marked improvement and the worst panic may be over, market participants remain cautious. A convincing trend reversal confirmation likely requires Bitcoin to sustainably break above key resistance, such as the 200-day moving average near $82,000.

marsbit05/12 10:08

Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Turns Positive for the First Time in 7 Months: End of Bear Market or False Breakout?

marsbit05/12 10:08

Bitcoin Rally To Near $80K Fuels Sharp Sentiment Rebound Across Crypto Markets

Bitcoin's recent rally towards $80,000 has driven a significant rebound in crypto market sentiment, with the Fear & Greed Index jumping 14 points to 46—its highest level since January. Analysts note that over 300,000 BTC have shifted from short-term to long-term holders in the past month, signaling stronger investor conviction. However, the rally appears largely driven by perpetual futures speculation rather than spot market demand, raising concerns about sustainability. Retail participation also remains subdued, limiting further sentiment gains. While entities like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue accumulating BTC, weak spot interest could lead to a price correction if profit-taking occurs.

bitcoinist04/24 05:01

Bitcoin Rally To Near $80K Fuels Sharp Sentiment Rebound Across Crypto Markets

bitcoinist04/24 05:01

Bitcoin Under Pressure As Selling Pressure Refuses To Ease In Sideways Market Conditions

Bitcoin's price has been trading sideways between $64,000 and $70,000, but significant selling pressure persists beneath the surface. According to CryptoQuant, this selling is driven primarily by large holders (whales) rather than retail investors. Whale holdings have turned net negative, marking one of the most aggressive distribution cycles on record. Mid-tier and dolphin investors are also accumulating at a declining pace. U.S. demand remains weak, with Coinbase Premium in negative territory. Despite the bearish pressure, a bounce toward $71,500–$81,200 is possible if macroeconomic risks, such as the U.S.-Iran dispute, ease.

bitcoinist04/02 23:32

Bitcoin Under Pressure As Selling Pressure Refuses To Ease In Sideways Market Conditions

bitcoinist04/02 23:32

Why Bitcoin Price Is Still Falling Despite Rising Strategy And ETF Demand: Researcher

Despite significant Bitcoin purchases by institutional players like spot ETFs and Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR), the price of Bitcoin fell toward $65,000 on March 27. According to CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno, this decline is due to a contraction in overall spot BTC demand, as measured by the Demand Growth metric. While ETF inflows and MSTR’s acquisitions—now holding over 762,000 BTC—have increased, broader investor accumulation has slowed. Most corporate treasuries have reduced Bitcoin buying activity except for MicroStrategy. BTC was trading around $66,300, down over 4% in 24 hours.

bitcoinist03/28 13:32

Why Bitcoin Price Is Still Falling Despite Rising Strategy And ETF Demand: Researcher

bitcoinist03/28 13:32

Bitcoin Network Activity Index Keeps Declining: Demand Still Weak?

CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Network Activity Index, which combines metrics like active addresses and transaction counts, continues to decline, indicating weak on-chain demand. Despite Bitcoin's price rally to new all-time highs in 2025, the index has remained below its 365-day moving average—a bearish signal similar to patterns observed in late 2021. Concurrently, Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score shows recent neutral or distribution-focused behavior across investor cohorts, contrasting with brief accumulation after February's price drop. Bitcoin currently trades around $70,900, up over 2% in 24 hours, but underlying network activity suggests persistent weak demand.

bitcoinist03/26 10:03

Bitcoin Network Activity Index Keeps Declining: Demand Still Weak?

bitcoinist03/26 10:03

Why Bitcoin Price Rallied From $65,000 To $74,000 — Analyst Gives ‘Real Reason’

Bitcoin's recent rally from $65,000 to over $74,000 is attributed to significant outflows from Binance, according to a CryptoQuant analysis by Burak Kesmeci. The 30-day simple moving average of Bitcoin exchange outflows indicates that approximately $55 million worth of BTC has been leaving Binance daily, signaling strong accumulation and growing long-term investor confidence. This persistent demand, reflected in the declining netflow, has supported Bitcoin's price strength even amid global equity market declines and geopolitical tensions. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $70,620.

bitcoinist03/22 00:31

Why Bitcoin Price Rallied From $65,000 To $74,000 — Analyst Gives ‘Real Reason’

bitcoinist03/22 00:31

Bitcoin Rally Likely A Relief Bounce, Not New Bull Phase: CryptoQuant

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant states that the recent Bitcoin rally is likely a relief bounce rather than the start of a new bull market. Its Bull Score Index, which aggregates signals from ten on-chain metrics, remains deep in bearish territory with a value of only 10. This indicates that just one of the ten indicators is currently bullish. Despite Bitcoin's price surge above $70,000, the index has consistently remained at or below 20 for months, having previously dropped to zero in late November. CryptoQuant concludes that Bitcoin market conditions are still bearish. In separate news, analytics firm Santiment reported that the number of non-empty Bitcoin addresses has reached a new all-time high of 58.45 million, growing 3% in the last six months. After a high near $74,000, Bitcoin's price has since retraced to around $70,500.

bitcoinist03/07 06:02

Bitcoin Rally Likely A Relief Bounce, Not New Bull Phase: CryptoQuant

bitcoinist03/07 06:02

KuCoin Tops CryptoQuant 2025 Exchange Transparency Rankings

CryptoQuant's 2025 Annual Exchange Leader Report has ranked KuCoin as the most transparent exchange, awarding it a score of 96.7 (A+) in its proof-of-reserves (PoR) evaluation. The report assessed structural transparency across areas such as public wallet disclosure, user-level balance verification, reporting frequency, and third-party attestations. KuCoin publishes monthly Merkle-tree-based PoR reports verified by Hacken, with over 39 consecutive reports showing reserve ratios consistently above 100%. The exchange’s transparency efforts are part of its broader $2 billion Trust Project, focusing on security, compliance, and user asset protection. CEO BC Wong emphasized that verifiable reserves and third-party validation are essential for building trust. The report also noted KuCoin’s strong growth in spot and derivatives markets in 2025.

TheNewsCrypto03/05 01:58

KuCoin Tops CryptoQuant 2025 Exchange Transparency Rankings

TheNewsCrypto03/05 01:58

Volatility Without Reward: Why Bitcoin’s MVRV Signals A High-Risk, Zero-Return Regime

Bitcoin is experiencing heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and fragile liquidity, with weakened directional conviction and constrained risk appetite. Analysis indicates a sharp decline in risk-adjusted returns, as both 365-day and 180-day Sharpe Ratios have turned deeply negative, signaling that recent volatility has not been compensated by positive returns. The MVRV Z-Score currently sits at 0.49, indicating neutral valuation—neither overbought nor at capitulation levels. This suggests a high-risk, low-return environment, lacking the historical buy signals that appear when valuations are deeply negative. A clear catalyst is needed to determine the next directional move.

bitcoinist03/04 07:32

Volatility Without Reward: Why Bitcoin’s MVRV Signals A High-Risk, Zero-Return Regime

bitcoinist03/04 07:32

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