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Perpetual Futures 'Landing in the US' Hits Roadblock: Why is CME Suing the CFTC in Court?

Perpetual crypto futures, which dominate global crypto derivatives trading, are entering the U.S. market. The CFTC approved KalshiEX to launch a true Bitcoin perpetual contract (BTCPERP) and issued rules allowing licensed exchanges to convert expiring crypto futures into perpetual ones. This move was challenged when CME Group sued the CFTC, arguing that perpetuals should be regulated as "swaps" under stricter rules, not as futures. The lawsuit's outcome will significantly impact the legal foundation of the nascent U.S. perpetuals market. Currently, two legal structures exist in the U.S.: true perpetuals (like Kalshi's) and long-dated futures (like Coinbase's) that mimic perpetuals via frequent funding rate settlements. These funding rates, paid between longs and shorts, keep contract prices anchored to spot. The proliferation of U.S. perpetuals creates fragmented liquidity across platforms (Kalshi, Coinbase, CME), with different rules on leverage, margining, and clearing. This fragmentation reduces capital efficiency, as collateral cannot be shared across products. Key competitive battlegrounds will be cross-product margin efficiency and the response of these new markets to extreme volatility. A pending Coinbase proposal to allow USDC stablecoin as futures margin could improve capital efficiency. Ultimately, the market's evolution hinges on two factors: how U.S. perpetuals behave during sharp Bitcoin price moves, and the court's ruling on whether they are futures or swaps.

Foresight News07/27 13:30

Perpetual Futures 'Landing in the US' Hits Roadblock: Why is CME Suing the CFTC in Court?

Foresight News07/27 13:30

US Government Suddenly Halts Anthropic's Strongest Model, "Quasi-IPO Stock Price" Plunges 3.7% Overnight

U.S. Government Halts Anthropic's Top AI Models, 'Pre-IPO' Price Drops 3.7% On June 12, the U.S. government ordered Anthropic to shut down access to its two most powerful AI models, Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5, citing national security concerns. The directive, issued by the Department of Commerce, required Anthropic to block access for all foreign nationals, leading the company to disable the models globally for all users. Anthropic strongly opposed the move, arguing the government's basis was a "narrow jailbreak vulnerability" and warning that applying such a standard industry-wide would effectively halt all frontier model deployments. The news impacted Anthropic's implied valuation in speculative markets. The Anthropic perpetual contract on Hyperliquid fell approximately 3.7% to around $1,627, down from highs above $1,800 following the models' release. Unauthorized tokenized products linked to Anthropic on Solana also saw significant declines. The models, launched just days earlier on June 9, represented a major capability leap for Anthropic. Fable 5 was its first public release of a "Mythos"-tier model above its flagship Claude Opus. The shutdown creates an ironic situation for Anthropic, a company founded on "AI safety" principles, and adds uncertainty to its ongoing IPO preparations. The company is actively engaging with regulators to resolve what it calls a "misunderstanding" and restore service.

marsbit06/15 02:31

US Government Suddenly Halts Anthropic's Strongest Model, "Quasi-IPO Stock Price" Plunges 3.7% Overnight

marsbit06/15 02:31

Kalshi and Coinbase Receive CFTC Approval, Ushering in the Most Regulation-Friendly Era for the Crypto Industry?

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took two landmark actions on May 29. It approved Kalshi's application to list a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract and issued a no-action letter to Coinbase Financial Markets. This allows Coinbase to offer certain perpetual futures products to U.S. customers through a subsidiary, with digital assets permitted as collateral. These moves, coupled with a new CFTC policy statement, provide a clearer regulatory pathway for perpetual contracts in the U.S., moving them from a regulatory gray area. CFTC Chair Mike Selig stated this is a key step for U.S. crypto leadership but noted the policy is not yet permanent. The article explains that CFTC's previous reluctance stemmed from legal ambiguities, as perpetual contracts lack an expiration date. However, such contracts dominate global crypto derivatives, accounting for ~78% of centralized exchange volume in 2025, forcing U.S. regulators to adapt to competition from offshore platforms like Hyperliquid. The approvals offer two compliance paths: Kalshi's direct listing and Coinbase's model using foreign futures. This is expected to attract institutional capital back to regulated U.S. venues, stimulate the launch of more products like ETH perpetuals, and enhance U.S. competitiveness in the global crypto derivatives market. The author suggests this may signal a "regulatorily friendly" era for crypto.

marsbit05/30 07:31

Kalshi and Coinbase Receive CFTC Approval, Ushering in the Most Regulation-Friendly Era for the Crypto Industry?

marsbit05/30 07:31

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