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Why I Am Not Bullish on Ethereum at Its Current State?

Why I'm Not Bullish on Ethereum at Current Prices The author expresses skepticism about Ethereum's current valuation, not its long-term business growth potential (user base and transaction volume are expected to increase). The author believes the price is too high relative to its fundamentals, based on the following analysis: - Active users and transaction counts have reached new highs but are growing slower than some leading e-commerce platforms. - Monthly transaction fees are only 0.6% of the previous cycle's peak, and average fees per transaction are 0.5% of previous highs. This slow growth comes at the cost of drastically reduced service prices, which is unfavorable in any industry. - If Ethereum is viewed as a company selling block space, its price-to-fee (PF) ratio exceeds 2,000x and its price-to-sales (PS) ratio exceeds 10,000x. It has negative net profit, so no P/E ratio exists. In comparison, traditional cloud service companies have P/E ratios of 20-30 and single-digit PS ratios. - If considered a commodity (like digital oil), Ethereum faces competition from other chains and rollups offering similar services. Its value proposition may not justify such a high premium, especially as its narrative as a store of value (like Bitcoin) has faded. - There is a lack of new, product-market-fit crypto native applications this cycle, leading to oversupply of block space and stagnant growth in the public chain sector. - Grand visions of Ethereum becoming a decentralized "Wall Street on-chain" lack supporting data and factual evidence. The author advocates for investment based on rationality, not belief or hype, and suggests waiting for concrete data before buying into this narrative.

marsbit01/19 09:08

Why I Am Not Bullish on Ethereum at Its Current State?

marsbit01/19 09:08

2025, Ethereum: Life Through Death

By 2025, Ethereum faced an identity crisis, caught between Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative and high-performance competitors like Solana. Regulatory clarity emerged with the U.S. CLARITY Act classifying ETH as a commodity, while the SEC’s "Project Crypto" acknowledged its decentralized nature, allowing staking rewards without securities classification. The 2024 Dencun upgrade, intended to reduce L2 costs via EIP-4844, backfired—L2s thrived but paid minimal fees to L1, crashing Ethereum’s revenue and raising sustainability concerns. The December 2025 Fusaka upgrade addressed this with EIP-7918, tying Blob fees to L1 execution costs, ensuring L2s contribute fairly to L1 revenue. PeerDAS (EIP-7594) expanded data capacity, enabling scalable, low-cost transactions. Ethereum’s new "B2B tax model" reframed its value: L2s handle high-volume, low-value transactions, while L1 provides security and settlement, capturing fees through ETH burns and staking rewards. Analysts projected an 8x increase in ETH burn rates by 2026. Valuation models now combine DCF (discounted cash flow) for protocol revenue and "trustware" pricing for its role in securing high-value assets like RWA (real-world assets), where Ethereum dominates due to its security and decentralization. Despite Solana’s edge in consumer apps, Ethereum solidified its position as the foundation for institutional-grade DeFi and RWA, transitioning into a foundational economic layer for the digital economy.

marsbit12/24 01:27

2025, Ethereum: Life Through Death

marsbit12/24 01:27

The 20% Threshold Audit: Which of the Top 20 Cryptocurrencies Will Perish Under the CLARITY Act?

**Audit of the Top 20: Which Cryptocurrencies Will the CLARITY Act Kill?** Scheduled for a final push in December 2025, the U.S. CLARITY Act introduces a critical 20% threshold. If any single entity or affiliated party controls more than 20% of a network's token supply or validation power, the asset is classified as a "digital security" under the SEC's strict jurisdiction. If it remains below, it is a "digital commodity" under the more lenient CFTC. An audit of the top 20 cryptocurrencies reveals a stark divide: **The Safe Haven (Digital Commodities):** * **Bitcoin (BTC):** 0% control. The gold standard of decentralization. * **Ethereum (ETH):** <1% control. Highly dispersed validators and foundation holdings. * **Dogecoin (DOGE) & Litecoin (LTC):** Near 0% control. Their simple, early PoW issuance is now a major compliance advantage. **The Red Zone (At High Risk):** * **XRP:** High risk. Ripple's massive escrowed holdings could be deemed "entity-controlled." * **BNB:** High risk. Strong association with Binance exchange and its controlled burn mechanism. * **TON:** High risk. Historically concentrated supply from early mining. * **Sui & Aptos:** Extreme risk. Classic "VC coins" with teams, investors, and foundations holding over 50%. * **Layer 2 Tokens (e.g., ARB, OP):** Medium-High risk. Their DAO treasuries often hold 30-40+% of supply, which could be viewed as a single entity. **The Grey Zone:** * **Solana (SOL):** Its status is unclear. FTX's collapse dispersed supply, but the foundation and VC holdings remain a focus for regulators. The 360-day grace period will trigger a market reckoning. Projects may desperately airdrop or burn tokens to dilute control, accept a security" label and face liquidity death on major exchanges, or be preemptively delisted. The outcome will be a "gentrification" of crypto, splitting the market into compliant, institutional "digital commodities" and a shadowy world of illiquid "digital securities." Investors must now scrutinize token distribution or risk being locked out of liquidity.

marsbit12/12 09:40

The 20% Threshold Audit: Which of the Top 20 Cryptocurrencies Will Perish Under the CLARITY Act?

marsbit12/12 09:40

Decade-Long Tug-of-War Concludes: "Crypto Market Structure Bill" Races Toward Senate

After a decade of regulatory uncertainty, the U.S. is advancing the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (CLARITY Act), which is expected to move into the Senate for revision and voting next week. The bill, which passed the House with overwhelming support in July, aims to end the long-standing debate over whether digital assets are securities or commodities by introducing a clear classification framework. The core of the legislation distinguishes between "digital commodities" and "digital securities." Most tokens issued on decentralized blockchains will be classified as digital commodities under CFTC jurisdiction, while only those meeting the Howey test will remain regulated as securities by the SEC. The bill also establishes a "mature blockchain" exemption, allowing highly decentralized networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum to avoid SEC registration. Additionally, digital commodity trading platforms must register with the CFTC, with a 360-day interim registration period to ensure a smooth transition. The act mandates coordination between the CFTC and SEC through a joint advisory committee to prevent regulatory gaps. It also protects decentralized finance (DeFi) participants by exempting non-custodial, non-profit roles from broker-dealer regulations. This legislative push aligns with broader regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, which has appointed crypto-friendly leaders to key agencies like the SEC, CFTC, and FDIC. These changes, along with recent CFTC initiatives to allow spot crypto trading on regulated platforms, signal a structural shift toward embracing digital assets. The bill is poised to complement earlier stablecoin legislation, positioning the U.S. as a potential global leader in crypto regulation and attracting institutional investment, though challenges in DeFi oversight and international coordination remain.

marsbit12/12 09:14

Decade-Long Tug-of-War Concludes: "Crypto Market Structure Bill" Races Toward Senate

marsbit12/12 09:14

Securities or Commodities? A Decade-Long Tug-of-War Ends as the 'Crypto Market Structure Act' Races to the Senate

The "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (CLARITY Act) is advancing to the U.S. Senate for final review after passing the House with strong support. The bill aims to resolve the long-standing regulatory debate over whether cryptocurrencies are classified as securities or commodities. It introduces a clear framework: tokens on decentralized blockchains are defined as "digital commodities" under CFTC oversight, while those meeting the Howey test remain securities regulated by the SEC. Key provisions include a "mature blockchain" exemption for highly decentralized networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum, a 360-day temporary registration pathway for trading platforms, and a fundraising exemption of up to $75 million for certain token offerings with enhanced disclosure. The bill also establishes a joint advisory committee to improve coordination between the CFTC and SEC and explicitly exempts non-custodial DeFi actors from broker-dealer regulations. This legislative effort aligns with the Trump administration's pro-crypto stance, including the appointment of industry-friendly leaders at key agencies like the SEC and CFTC, and recent moves to allow regulated spot crypto trading on CFTC-approved exchanges. If enacted, the law would provide regulatory clarity, encourage institutional adoption, and position the U.S. as a leader in the digital asset space.

Odaily星球日报12/10 11:03

Securities or Commodities? A Decade-Long Tug-of-War Ends as the 'Crypto Market Structure Act' Races to the Senate

Odaily星球日报12/10 11:03

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